On risk attitude and optimal yacht racing tactics

When the future wind direction is uncertain, the tactical decisions of a yacht skipper involve a stochastic routing problem. The objective of this problem is to maximise the probability of reaching the next mark ahead of all the other competitors. This paper describes some numerical experiments that explore the effect of the skipper׳s risk attitude on their policy when match racing another boat. The tidal current at any location is assumed to be negligible, while the wind direction is modelled by a Markov chain. Boat performance in different wind conditions is defined by the output of a velocity prediction program, and we assume a known speed loss for tacking and gybing. We compare strategies that minimise the average time to sail the leg with those that seek to maximise the probability of winning, and show that by adopting different attitudes to risk when leading or trailing the competitor, a skipper can improve their chances of winning

The effect of sterilization on biological, organic geochemical and morphological information in natural samples

The loss of biological, organic geochemical, and morphological science information that may occur should a Mars surface sample be sterilized prior to return to earth is examined. Results of experimental studies are summarized

On the Convergence of Sampling-Based Decomposition Algorithms for Multistage Stochastic Programs

The paper presents a convergence proof for a broad class of sampling algorithms for multistage stochastic linear programs in which the uncertain parameters occur only in the constraint right-hand sides. This class includes SDDP, AND, ReSa, and CUPPS. We show that, under some independence assumptions on the sampling procedure, the algorithms converge with probability

Supply function equilibria in transportation networks

Transport constraints limit competition and arbitrageurs' possibilities of exploiting price differences between commodities in neighbouring markets. We analyze a transportation network where oligopoly producers compete with supply functions under uncertain demand, as in wholesale electricity markets. For symmetric networks with a radial structure, we show that existence of symmetric supply function equilibria (SFE) is ensured if demand shocks are sufficiently evenly distributed. We can explicitly solve for them for uniform multi-dimensional nodal demand shocks

Co-ordinating retinal histogenesis: early cell cycle exit enhances early cell fate determination in the Xenopus retina

The laminar arrays of distinct cell types in the vertebrate retina are built by a histogenic process in which cell fate is correlated with birth order. To explore this co-ordination mechanistically, we altered the relative timing of cell cycle exit in the developing Xenopus retina and asked whether this affected the activity of neural determinants. We found that Xath5, a bHLH proneural gene that promotes retinal ganglion cell (RGC) fate, ( Kanekar, S., Perron, M., Dorsky, R., Harris, W. A., Jan, L. Y., Jan, Y. N. and Vetter, M. L. (1997) Neuron 19, 981-994), does not cause these cells to be born prematurely. To drive cells out of the cell cycle early, therefore, we misexpressed the cyclin kinase inhibitor, p27Xic1. We found that early cell cycle exit potentiates the ability of Xath5 to promote RGC fate. Conversely, the cell cycle activator, cyclin E1, which inhibits cell cycle exit, biases Xath5-expressing cells toward later neuronal fates. We found that Notch activation in this system caused cells to exit the cell cycle prematuely, and when it is misexpressed with Xath5, it also potentiates the induction of RGCs. The potentiation is counteracted by co-expression of cyclin E1. These results suggest a model of histogenesis in which the activity of factors that promote early cell cycle exit enhances the activity of factors that promote early cellular fates

Underuse of coronary revascularization procedures in patients considered appropriate candidates for revascularization.

Background: Ratings by an expert panel of the appropriateness of treatments may offer better guidance for clinical practice than the variable decisions of individual clinicians, yet there have been no prospective studies of clinical outcomes. We compared the clinical outcomes of patients treated medically after angiography with those of patients who underwent revascularization, within groups defined by ratings of the degree of appropriateness of revascularization in varying clinical circumstances.Methods: This was a prospective study of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography at three London hospitals. Before patients were recruited, a nine-member expert panel rated the appropriateness of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) on a nine-point scale (with 1 denoting highly inappropriate and 9 denoting highly appropriate) for specific clinical indications. These ratings were then applied to a population of patients with coronary artery disease. However, the patients were treated without regard to the ratings. A total of 2552 patients were followed for a median of 30 months after angiography.Results: Of 908 patients with indications for which PTCA was rated appropriate (score, 7 to 9), 34 percent were treated medically; these patients were more likely to have angina at follow-up than those who underwent PTCA (odds ratio, 1.97; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.29 to 3.00). Of 1353 patients with indications for which CABG was considered appropriate, 26 percent were treated medically; they were more likely than those who underwent CABG to die or have a nonfatal myocardial infarction - the composite primary outcome (hazard ratio, 4.08; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.82 to 5.93) - and to have angina (odds ratio, 3.03; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.08 to 4.42). Furthermore, there was a graded relation between rating and outcome over the entire scale of appropriateness (P for linear trend = 0.002).Conclusions: On the basis of the ratings of the expert panel, we identified substantial underuse of coronary revascularization among patients who were considered appropriate candidates for these procedures. Underuse was associated with adverse clinical outcomes. (N Engl J Med 2001;344:645-54.) Copyright (C) 2001 Massachusetts Medical Society

Intranasal sodium citrate solution improves olfaction in post-viral hyposmia

Background: Calcium plays an integral role in olfactory signal transduction, including feedback inhibition. Sodium citrate acts as a calcium sequestrant and when applied intranasally, reduces free calcium available for feedback inhibition, which should theoretically improve olfaction. We aimed to investigate the utility of intranasal sodium citrate in improving the olfactory function of hyposmic patients, by performing this prospective placebo controlled, single-blinded trial. Methodology: Monorhinal olfactory testing for odour identification and threshold was performed in hyposmic patients using “Sniffin’ Sticks”, before and after treatment. Treatment consisted of sodium citrate solution application to the olfactory cleft. Sodium chloride solution was applied to the contralateral olfactory cleft, which therefore acted as placebo control. Patients were blinded to the side of sodium citrate application, and side of treatment was randomized between patients. Results: 57 patients participated in the trial, aged 22-79. Causes of hyposmia included: post-viral (7); posttraumatic (10); sinonasal (30) and idiopathic (10). Compared with placebo, there was significant improvement in the identification scores of participants with post-viral hyposmia, following sodium citrate treatment. No significant change in olfactory function occurred for either identification or threshold in any other aetiological subgroup. Conclusions: Intranasal sodium citrate may be of benefit to patients with post-viral hyposmia

Scaffolding, the Zone of Proximal Development, and Novice Programmers

The work, which is part of a doctoral research project, reported here aims to explore the learning strategies that novice computer programmers adopt when writing code, the ways in which they integrate knowledge, and the processes they employ when applying their knowledge and skills in different contexts. Here we present an analysis of the data obtained using think‐aloud retrospective interviews of two novice programmers attempting to solve a set of programming tasks. Our findings, based on a narrative analysis of these interviews, indicate that scaffolding can influence progression in learning and can extend a student’s zone of proximal development

On the Convergence of Decomposition Methods for Multistage Stochastic Convex Programs

International audienceWe prove the almost-sure convergence of a class of sampling-based nested decomposition algorithms for multistage stochastic convex programs in which the stage costs are general convex functions of the decisions , and uncertainty is modelled by a scenario tree. As special cases, our results imply the almost-sure convergence of SDDP, CUPPS and DOASA when applied to problems with general convex cost functions

Experiment K-6-16. Morphological examination of rat testes. The effect of Cosmos 1887 flight on spermatogonial population and testosterone level in rat testes

Testes from rats flown on Cosmos 1887 for twelve and a half days were compared to basal control, synchronous control and vivarium maintained rats. When the mean weights of flight testes, normalized for weight/100 gms, were compared to the vivarium controls they were 6.7 percent lighter. Although the flight testes were lighter than the synchronous, the difference is not significant. Counts of spermatogonial cells from 5 animals in each group revealed a 4 percent decrease in flight compared to vivarium controls. In both cases the t-Test significance was less than 0.02. The serum testosterone levels of all animals (flight, synchronous and vivarium) were significantly below the basal controls