Neighborhood effects in wind farm performance: An econometric approach

The optimization of turbine density in wind farms entails a trade-off between the usage of scarce, expensive land and power losses through turbine wake effects. A quantification and prediction of the wake effect, however, is challenging because of the complex aerodynamic nature of the interdependencies of turbines. In this paper, we propose a parsimonious data driven econometric wake model that can be used to predict production losses of existing and potential wind parks. Motivated by simple engineering wake models, the predicting variables are wind speed, turbine alignment angle, and distance. By utilizing data from two wind parks in Germany, a significantly better prediction of wake effect losses is attained compared to the standard Jensen model. A scenario analysis reveals that a distance between turbines can be reduced up to three times the rotor size without entailing substantial production losses. In contrast, a suboptimal configuration of turbines with respect to the main wind direction can result in production losses that are five times higher

Partial Stochastic Analysis with the Aglink-Cosimo Model: A Methodological Overview

Aglink-Cosimo is a recursive-dynamic partial equilibrium model developed and maintained by the OECD and FAO Secretariats as a collaborative effort. The model is primarily used to prepare the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, a yearly publication aiming at providing baseline projections for the main global agricultural commodities over the medium term. This deterministic projections are enhanced by a Partial Stochastic Analysis tool, which allows for the analysis of specific market uncertainties. This is done by producing counterfactual scenarios to the baseline originating from varying yields and macroeconomic variables stochastically. The aim of this report is to propose and evaluate different methods of analysing stochastically important yields and macroeconomic uncertainty drivers. In a first stage, we identify and evaluate the best parametric method to extract unexplained variability, which we consider as uncertainty in the macro and yield drivers. In a second stage, we test parametric and nonparametric methods side by side to simulate ten years of potentially different macroeconomic and yield environments. The results can be summarised as follows. For yields, we find out that a parametric cubic trend method performs best in the first stage and a non-parametric hierarchical copula (Clayton) method is more appropriate in the second stage. For macroeconomic variables, a vector autoregressive model performs best in the first stage, while a non-parametric hierarchical copula (Frank) method is more appropriate in the second stage.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Introducing medium-and long-term productivity responses in Aglink-Cosimo

This report aims at enhancing the Aglink-Cosimo model by incorporating agricultural productivity growth. It contains a first attempt to develop a measure of the productivity response of agricultural commodities represented in Aglink-Cosimo. In the report we first present how productivity growth is considered at present in the model. Subsequently, we review the literature on how technical progress and price elasticities of yield relate to yield growth. From the literature, we extract a way of capturing endogenously productivity growth. We document the Aglink-Cosimo model changes and focus on some specific cases. Finally, we prepare a scenario analysis on the actual baseline and on an economy with a higher GDP growth rate. The scenario, applied to both cases, studies the effect of a 20% labour price increase on endogenous productivity growth.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook. Proceedings of the October 2017 workshop.

The workshop on the 'EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission’s report on 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary 10-year-ahead projections in EU agricultural commodity markets, and discussing in depth the EU prospects in a global context. This year the workshop was held on October 19-20 in Brussels. The workshop was jointly organised by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI). Participants included policy makers, modelling and market experts from various countries, as well as stakeholders of the agri-food industry. This document summarises the presentations and discussions on the macroeconomic and energy assumptions associated with this outlook, and on each of the EU agricultural markets addressed (arable crops, biofuels, sugar, wine, milk and dairy, meat).JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

How effective are VAT reforms in improving healthy dietary choices by EU consumers?

[EN] Governments are increasingly considering fiscal instruments to improve dietary health. This paper quantifies the medium-term impacts on European food markets of a differentiated VAT policy that promotes healthy food consumption while discouraging intake of less nutritious products. Scenarios involve reduced VAT on grains, pulses, and poultry, and increased rates on beef, pork, sugar, and high-fat dairy. Our results show a significant decline in domestic consumption of targeted foods. However, part of this reduction is exported to other markets – a phenomenon described as “health leakage,” raising questions about the broader effectiveness of such fiscal interventions. [ES] Los gobiernos consideran cada vez más el uso de instrumentos fiscales para mejorar la salud alimentaria. Este artículo cuantifica los impactos a medio plazo en los mercados alimentarios europeos de una política diferenciada del IVA que promueve el consumo de alimentos saludables y desincentiva la ingesta de productos menos nutritivos. Los escenarios analizados incluyen una reducción del IVA sobre cereales, legumbres y carne de ave, y un aumento sobre carne de vacuno, cerdo, azúcar y productos lácteos con alto contenido graso. Los resultados muestran una disminución significativa del consumo interno, aunque parte de esta reducción se exporta a otros mercados, un fenómeno que denominamos “health leakage”, lo que plantea dudas sobre la efectividad global de este tipo de políticas fiscales

Documentation of the European Commission’s EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo model: 2021 version

This report documents the EU module of the European Commission’s version of the Aglink-Cosimo model. Aglink-Cosimo is a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, multi-commodity market model of world agriculture developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Secretariats in collaboration with some OECD member countries. The model is used to simulate the development of annual supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced, consumed, and traded worldwide. Aglink-Cosimo covers 35 individual countries, 12 regional aggregates, and 29 market-clearing prices at the world level. At the EU level, the model is used to produce the report “EU agricultural outlook for markets, income and environment” (henceforth, EU Outlook).JRC.D.4 - Economics of Agricultur

How effective are VAT reforms in improving healthy dietary choices by EU consumers?

Governments are increasingly considering fiscal instruments to improve dietary health. This paper quantifies the medium-term impacts on European food markets of a differentiated VAT policy that promotes healthy food consumption while discouraging intake of less nutritious products. Scenarios involve reduced VAT on grains, pulses, and poultry, and increased rates on beef, pork, sugar, and highfat dairy. Our results show a significant decline in domestic consumption of targeted foods. However, part of this reduction is exported to other markets – a phenomenon described as “health leakage,” raising questions about the broader effectiveness of such fiscal interventions

Agro-economic-environmental modelling in the context of the Green Deal and sustainable food systems.

The Integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) provides in-house policy support to the European Commission by assessing a wide range of policies and topics related to sustainable food systems (SFS). Substantially supported by DG AGRI, iMAP is constantly further developed to meet evolving policy needs. This report outlines iMAP’s enhanced analytical capacity to capture the multidimensional aspects of SFS and assess policy impacts. Considerable progress has been made in capturing production and environmental aspects of policies and strategies, particularly those related to the European Green Deal (EGD). Significant developments have been achieved in integrating biophysical models, other sector-specific models, and satellite imagery data into iMAP’s analytical framework. However, comprehensive modelling of environmental aspects of farming practices remains challenging due to the complex interplay of biological and agronomic factors, coupled with data limitations. Limited data on specific aspects of consumer behaviour also remains a constraint for comprehensive assessments. The report shows that iMAP, along with interdisciplinary collaboration and tool integration, provides a suitable framework for assessing EGD-related policies. However, the report also highlights general uncertainties, scientific knowledge gaps, and data constraints that limit a full assessment of all aspects of the transition towards more SFS.JRC.D.4 - Economics of the Food Syste

Comparison and combination of a hemodynamics/biomarkers-based model with simplified PESI score for prognostic stratification of acute pulmonary embolism: findings from a real world study

Background: Prognostic stratification is of utmost importance for management of acute Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in clinical practice. Many prognostic models have been proposed, but which is the best prognosticator in real life remains unclear. The aim of our study was to compare and combine the predictive values of the hemodynamics/biomarkers based prognostic model proposed by European Society of Cardiology (ESC) in 2008 and simplified PESI score (sPESI).Methods: Data records of 452 patients discharged for acute PE from Internal Medicine wards of Tuscany (Italy) were analysed. The ESC model and sPESI were retrospectively calculated and compared by using Areas under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curves (AUCs) and finally the combination of the two models was tested in hemodinamically stable patients. All cause and PE-related in-hospital mortality and fatal or major bleedings were the analyzed endpointsResults: All cause in-hospital mortality was 25% (16.6% PE related) in high risk, 8.7% (4.7%) in intermediate risk and 3.8% (1.2%) in low risk patients according to ESC model. All cause in-hospital mortality was 10.95% (5.75% PE related) in patients with sPESI score ≥1 and 0% (0%) in sPESI score 0. Predictive performance of sPESI was not significantly different compared with 2008 ESC model both for all cause (AUC sPESI 0.711, 95% CI: 0.661-0.758 versus ESC 0.619, 95% CI: 0.567-0.670, difference between AUCs 0.0916, p=0.084) and for PE-related mortality (AUC sPESI 0.764, 95% CI: 0.717-0.808 versus ESC 0.650, 95% CI: 0.598-0.700, difference between AUCs 0.114, p=0.11). Fatal or major bleedings occurred in 4.30% of high risk, 1.60% of intermediate risk and 2.50% of low risk patients according to 2008 ESC model, whereas these occurred in 1.80% of high risk and 1.45% of low risk patients according to sPESI, respectively. Predictive performance for fatal or major bleeding between two models was not significantly different (AUC sPESI 0.658, 95% CI: 0.606-0.707 versus ESC 0.512, 95% CI: 0.459-0.565, difference between AUCs 0.145, p=0.34). In hemodynamically stable patients, the combined endpoint in-hospital PE-related mortality and/or fatal or major bleeding (adverse events) occurred in 0% of patients with low risk ESC model and sPESI score 0, whilst it occurred in 5.5% of patients with low-risk ESC model but sPESI ≥1. In intermediate risk patients according to ESC model, adverse events occurred in 3.6% of patients with sPESI score 0 and 6.65% of patients with sPESI score ≥1.Conclusions: In real world, predictive performance of sPESI and the hemodynamic/biomarkers-based ESC model as prognosticator of in-hospital mortality and bleedings is similar. Combination of sPESI 0 with low risk ESC model may identify patients with very low risk of adverse events and candidate for early hospital discharge or home treatment.