Design of robust service operations using cybernetic principles and simulation

Information flows in a service organisation allow business units to co-ordinate their response to changes in the operating environment. Processes and interactions can be designed so that the right information flows to the right people, at the right time to make effective decisions regarding job priorities and allocation of limited resource. This paper develops an analysis framework and simulation approach to identify the internal information flows an organisation needs to “tune itself” for changing conditions, thus making itself more robust to uncertainties. The ideas are developed and illustrated through a case study with a major telecoms company.International Design Conference - DESIGN 201

Towards an assessment of resilience in telecom infrastructure projects using real options

This paper employs the concept of real options to quantitatively assess resilience. First, the definitions of resilience are distilled from literature in the fields of engineering, management and ecology to give requirements for further assessment. From this, it was found that resilience requires a system to be robust, adaptable and flexible in the face of uncertainty. The main contribution of the paper is to connect these requirements to real options valuation and demonstrate the evaluation of the robust and flexible cases through real options methods. Specifically, Least Squares Monte Carlo method is used to value each option with the robust case being the benchmark and flexibility representing upgrades to the system. This is applied to an illustrative telecommunications case and the properties of the model assessed. The results show that uncertainties on the system can be captured and valued through this method so that it can aid a decision maker to assess which technology option or investment to select for future planning

Microstructural damage of the posterior corpus callosum contributes to the clinical severity of neglect

One theory to account for neglect symptoms in patients with right focal damage invokes a release of inhibition of the right parietal cortex over the left parieto-frontal circuits, by disconnection mechanism. This theory is supported by transcranial magnetic stimulation studies showing the existence of asymmetric inhibitory interactions between the left and right posterior parietal cortex, with a right hemispheric advantage. These inhibitory mechanisms are mediated by direct transcallosal projections located in the posterior portions of the corpus callosum. The current study, using diffusion imaging and tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS), aims at assessing, in a data-driven fashion, the contribution of structural disconnection between hemispheres in determining the presence and severity of neglect. Eleven patients with right acute stroke and 11 healthy matched controls underwent MRI at 3T, including diffusion imaging, and T1-weighted volumes. TBSS was modified to account for the presence of the lesion and used to assess the presence and extension of changes in diffusion indices of microscopic white matter integrity in the left hemisphere of patients compared to controls, and to investigate, by correlation analysis, whether this damage might account for the presence and severity of patients' neglect, as assessed by the Behavioural Inattention Test (BIT). None of the patients had any macroscopic abnormality in the left hemisphere; however, 3 cases were discarded due to image artefacts in the MRI data. Conversely, TBSS analysis revealed widespread changes in diffusion indices in most of their left hemisphere tracts, with a predominant involvement of the corpus callosum and its projections on the parietal white matter. A region of association between patients' scores at BIT and brain FA values was found in the posterior part of the corpus callosum. This study strongly supports the hypothesis of a major role of structural disconnection between the right and left parietal cortex in determining 'neglect'

Connectivity as the capacity to improve an organization’s decision-making

This paper describes the development of a new computational model to predict the desirability of decision consequences in an organization, and the development of a prototype tool to enable real-time interaction and decision support when changes occur simultaneously. A tool, called Decision Propagation System, is developed in response to the needs of BT Group plc in understanding the most effective set of interventions in the organization where the high degree of connectivity between system components and the uncertainty in connectivity data are two critical issues. Designed on a case study of the Fields Operations Engineering, this research demonstrates that a knowledge of overlapping decision propagation paths can direct the organizational decisions towards mitigating the risk of unintended consequences

Post-depositional fracturing and subsidence of pumice flow deposits: Lascar Volcano, Chile

Unconsolidated pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1993 eruption of Lascar Volcano, Chile, have, with time, become increasingly dissected by a network of deeply penetrating fractures. The fracture network comprises orthogonal sets of decimeter-wide linear voids that form a pseudo-polygonal grid visible on the deposit surface. In this work, we combine shallow surface geophysical imaging tools with remote sensing observations and direct field measurements of the deposit to investigate these fractures and their underlying causal mechanisms. Based on ground penetrating radar images, the fractures are observed to have propagated to depths of up to 10 m. In addition, orbiting radar interferometry shows that deposit subsidence of up to 1 cm/year occurred between 1993 and 1996 with continued subsidence occurring at a slower rate thereafter. In situ measurements show that 1 m below the surface, the 1993 deposits remain 5°C to 15°C hotter, 18 years after emplacement, than adjacent deposits. Based on the observed subsidence as well as estimated cooling rates, the fractures are inferred to be the combined result of deaeration, thermal contraction, and sedimentary compaction in the months to years following deposition. Significant environmental factors, including regional earthquakes in 1995 and 2007, accelerated settling at punctuated moments in time. The spatially variable fracture pattern relates to surface slope and lithofacies variations as well as substrate lithology. Similar fractures have been reported in other ignimbrites but are generally exposed only in cross section and are often attributed to formation by external forces. Here we suggest that such interpretations should be invoked with caution, and deformation including post-emplacement subsidence and fracturing of loosely packed ash-rich deposits in the months to years postemplacement is a process inherent in the settling of pyroclastic material

Prodigious submarine landslides during the inception and early growth of volcanic islands

Volcanic island inception applies large stresses as the ocean crust domes in response to magma ascension and is loaded by eruption of lavas. There is currently limited information on when volcanic islands are initiated on the seafloor, and no information regarding the seafloor instabilities island inception may cause. The deep sea Madeira Abyssal Plain contains a 43 million year history of turbidites among which many originate from mass movements in the Canary Islands. Here, we investigate the composition and timing of a distinctive group of turbidites that we suggest represent a new unique record of large-volume submarine landslides triggered during the inception, submarine shield growth, and final subaerial emergence of the Canary Islands. These slides are predominantly multi-stage and yet represent among the largest mass movements on the Earth’s surface up to three or more-times larger than subaerial Canary Islands flank collapses. Thus whilst these deposits provide invaluable information on ocean island geodynamics they also represent a significant, and as yet unaccounted, marine geohazard

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain

Palaeoclimate inferred from δ18O and palaeobotanical indicators in freshwater tufa of Lake Äntu Sinijärv, Estonia

We investigated a 3.75-m-long lacustrine sediment record from Lake Äntu Sinijärv, northern Estonia, which has a modeled basal age >12,800 cal yr BP. Our multi-proxy approach focused on the stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of freshwater tufa. Our new palaeoclimate information for the Eastern Baltic region, based on high-resolution δ18O data (219 samples), is supported by pollen and plant macrofossil data. Radiocarbon dates were used to develop a core chronology and estimate sedimentation rates. Freshwater tufa precipitation started ca. 10,700 cal yr BP, ca. 2,000 years later than suggested by previous studies on the same lake. Younger Dryas cooling is documented clearly in Lake Äntu Sinijärv sediments by abrupt appearance of diagnostic pollen (Betula nana, Dryas octopetala), highest mineral matter content in sediments (up to 90 %) and low values of δ18O (less than −12 ‰). Globally recognized 9.3- and 8.2-ka cold events are weakly defined by negative shifts in δ18O values, to −11.3 and −11.7 ‰, respectively, and low concentrations of herb pollen and charcoal particles. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) is palaeobotanically well documented by the first appearance and establishment of nemoral thermophilous taxa and presence of water lilies requiring warm conditions. Isotope values show an increasing trend during the HTM, from −11.5 to −10.5 ‰. Relatively stable environmental conditions, represented by only a small-scale increase in δ18O (up to 1 ‰) and high pollen concentrations between 5,000 and 3,000 cal yr BP, were followed by a decrease in δ18O, reaching the most negative value (−12.7 ‰) recorded in the freshwater tufa ca. 900 cal yr BP

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs)

Structure and dynamics of the E. coli chemotaxis core signaling complex by cryo-electron tomography and molecular simulations

To enable the processing of chemical gradients, chemotactic bacteria possess large arrays of transmembrane chemoreceptors, the histidine kinase CheA, and the adaptor protein CheW, organized as coupled core-signaling units (CSU). Despite decades of study, important questions surrounding the molecular mechanisms of sensory signal transduction remain unresolved, owing especially to the lack of a high-resolution CSU structure. Here, we use cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging to determine a structure of the Escherichia coli CSU at sub-nanometer resolution. Based on our experimental data, we use molecular simulations to construct an atomistic model of the CSU, enabling a detailed characterization of CheA conformational dynamics in its native structural context. We identify multiple, distinct conformations of the critical P4 domain as well as asymmetries in the localization of the P3 bundle, offering several novel insights into the CheA signaling mechanism