Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Dispersion as an Important Step in the Candida albicans Biofilm Developmental Cycle

Biofilms are dynamic microbial communities in which transitions between planktonic and sessile modes of growth occur interchangeably in response to different environmental cues. In the last decade, early events associated with C. albicans biofilm formation have received considerable attention. However, very little is known about C. albicans biofilm dispersion or the mechanisms and signals that trigger it. This is important because it is precisely C. albicans cells dispersed from biofilms that are the main culprits associated with candidemia and establishment of disseminated invasive disease, two of the gravest forms of candidiasis. Using a simple flow biofilm model recently developed by our group, we have performed initial investigations into the phenomenon of C. albicans biofilm dispersion, as well as the phenotypic characteristics associated with dispersed cells. Our results indicate that C. albicans biofilm dispersion is dependent on growing conditions, including carbon source and pH of the media used for biofilm development. C. albicans dispersed cells are mostly in the yeast form and display distinct phenotypic properties compared to their planktonic counterparts, including enhanced adherence, filamentation, biofilm formation and, perhaps most importantly, increased pathogenicity in a murine model of hematogenously disseminated candidiasis, thus indicating that dispersed cells are armed with a complete arsenal of “virulence factors” important for seeding and establishing new foci of infection. In addition, utilizing genetically engineered strains of C. albicans (tetO-UME6 and tetO-PES1) we demonstrate that C. albicans biofilm dispersion can be regulated by manipulating levels of expression of these key genes, further supporting the evidence for a strong link between biofilms and morphogenetic conversions at different stages of the C. albicans biofilm developmental cycle. Overall, our results offer novel and important insight into the phenomenon of C. albicans biofilm dispersion, a key part of the biofilm developmental cycle, and provide the basis for its more detailed analysis

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Funding WHO

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories

Dismantling the treasured flagship lichen Sticta fuliginosa (Peltigerales) into four species in Western Europe

In the framework of a worldwide project on the phylogeny of the lichen genus Sticta, dedicated sampling was performed in four regions of Western Europe, roughly along an East-West line between N 48°02’ E 07°01’ and N 52°01’ W 09°30’, ranging from France/Vosges to Ireland/Kerry. Five clearly distinct ITS haplotypes were detected for isidia-producing species where only two were expected. Subtle anatomical and morphological characters, together with a strongly supported 4-loci molecular phylogeny, permit to distinguish, besides the easily recognized S. canariensis and S. limbata: • the two « well-known » S. fuliginosa and S. sylvatica whose type collections have been carefully reassessed; the former is widespread in both hemispheres, while the latter is correctly identified only from continental Europe and the Andes in Colombia; the barcode ITS of S. fuliginosa differs by a single substitution from S. limbata (with a single exception), and the 4-loci phylogenetic tree does not resolve them as distinct lineages, most probably highlighting a very recent divergence and incomplete lineage sorting; • three species that were formely included in S. fuliginosa: the resurrected S. ciliata Taylor, belonging to a complex group yet to be disentangled and occurring in the Neotropics, Africa, Macaronesia and Western Europe, and two species described as new for science, S. fuliginoides, found in continental Europe, the Canary Islands, eastern North America and Colombia, and S. atlantica only known from Ireland and the Azores archipelago. Molecular inferences demonstrate active divergence and dispersion within S. ciliata that may require recognition of further species. Fresh material can be identified with a morphological and anatomical preliminary key provided here. We propose that the taxonomy of all lichen species be urgently reviewed in the light of molecular data in an evolutionary context, particularly those used as bioindicators of environmental change and woodland management