Network meta-analysis on the log-hazard scale, combining count and hazard ratio statistics accounting for multi-arm trials: a tutorial.

BACKGROUND: Data on survival endpoints are usually summarised using either hazard ratio, cumulative number of events, or median survival statistics. Network meta-analysis, an extension of traditional pairwise meta-analysis, is typically based on a single statistic. In this case, studies which do not report the chosen statistic are excluded from the analysis which may introduce bias. METHODS: In this paper we present a tutorial illustrating how network meta-analyses of survival endpoints can combine count and hazard ratio statistics in a single analysis on the hazard ratio scale. We also describe methods for accounting for the correlations in relative treatment effects (such as hazard ratios) that arise in trials with more than two arms. Combination of count and hazard ratio data in a single analysis is achieved by estimating the cumulative hazard for each trial arm reporting count data. Correlation in relative treatment effects in multi-arm trials is preserved by converting the relative treatment effect estimates (the hazard ratios) to arm-specific outcomes (hazards). RESULTS: A worked example of an analysis of mortality data in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is used to illustrate the methods. The data set and WinBUGS code for fixed and random effects models are provided. CONCLUSIONS: By incorporating all data presentations in a single analysis, we avoid the potential selection bias associated with conducting an analysis for a single statistic and the potential difficulties of interpretation, misleading results and loss of available treatment comparisons associated with conducting separate analyses for different summary statistics

Surgery, with or without tamoxifen, vs tamoxifen alone for older women with operable breast cancer: Cochrane review

The published literature comparing surgery, with or without adjuvant endocrine therapy, with endocrine therapy alone in older women with operable breast cancer was systematically reviewed.The design used is Cochrane review. Randomised controlled trials retrieved from the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group Specialised Register on 29 June 2005. Eligible studies recruited women aged 70 years or over with operable breast cancer, fit for surgery under general anaesthia. The studies compared surgery (either mastectomy or wide local excision, with or without endocrine therapy) to endocrine therapy alone. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Double data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken. Seven eligible trials were identified of which six had published time-to-event data. The quality of the allocation concealment was adequate in three studies and unclear in the remainder. In each case the endocrine therapy used was tamoxifen. When surgery alone was compared to endocrine therapy alone, there was no significant difference in OS (hazard ratio (HR) 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74–1.30, P=0.9), but a significant difference in PFS (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39–0.77, P=0.0006). When surgery with adjuvant endocrine therapy was compared to endocrine therapy alone, there was no significant difference in OS (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73–1.00, P=0.06), but a significant difference in PFS (HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.53–0.81, P=0.0001) for surgery plus endocrine therapy vs primary endocrine. The regimens have different side effect profiles with one study suggesting increased psychosocial morbidity at 3 months in the surgical arm, which resolves by 2 years. Primary endocrine therapy with tamoxifen is associated with inferior local disease control but non-inferior survival to surgery for breast cancer in older women. Trials are needed to evaluate appropriate selection criteria for its use in terms of patient co-morbidity and quality of life. Trials are needed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of aromatase inhibitors as primary therapy for this population

Promotoras as Mental Health Practitioners in Primary Care: A Multi-Method Study of an Intervention to Address Contextual Sources of Depression

We assessed the role of promotoras—briefly trained community health workers—in depression care at community health centers. The intervention focused on four contextual sources of depression in underserved, low-income communities: underemployment, inadequate housing, food insecurity, and violence. A multi-method design included quantitative and ethnographic techniques to study predictors of depression and the intervention’s impact. After a structured training program, primary care practitioners (PCPs) and promotoras collaboratively followed a clinical algorithm in which PCPs prescribed medications and/or arranged consultations by mental health professionals and promotoras addressed the contextual sources of depression. Based on an intake interview with 464 randomly recruited patients, 120 patients with depression were randomized to enhanced care plus the promotora contextual intervention, or to enhanced care alone. All four contextual problems emerged as strong predictors of depression (chi square, p < .05); logistic regression revealed housing and food insecurity as the most important predictors (odds ratios both 2.40, p < .05). Unexpected challenges arose in the intervention’s implementation, involving infrastructure at the health centers, boundaries of the promotoras’ roles, and “turf” issues with medical assistants. In the quantitative assessment, the intervention did not lead to statistically significant improvements in depression (odds ratio 4.33, confidence interval overlapping 1). Ethnographic research demonstrated a predominantly positive response to the intervention among stakeholders, including patients, promotoras, PCPs, non-professional staff workers, administrators, and community advisory board members. Due to continuing unmet mental health needs, we favor further assessment of innovative roles for community health workers

First measurement of the |t|-dependence of coherent J/ψ photonuclear production

The first measurement of the cross section for coherent J/ψ photoproduction as a function of |t|, the square of the momentum transferred between the incoming and outgoing target nucleus, is presented. The data were measured with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair sNN=5.02TeV with the J/ψ produced in the central rapidity region |y|<0.8, which corresponds to the small Bjorken-x range (0.3−1.4)×10−3. The measured |t|-dependence is not described by computations based only on the Pb nuclear form factor, while the photonuclear cross section is better reproduced by models including shadowing according to the leading-twist approximation, or gluon-saturation effects from the impact-parameter dependent Balitsky–Kovchegov equation. These new results are therefore a valid tool to constrain the relevant model parameters and to investigate the transverse gluonic structure at very low Bjorken-x.publishedVersio

The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased clinical severity of COVID-19 in Scotland: A genomics-based retrospective cohort analysis

Objectives The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased transmission relative to other variants present at the time of its emergence and several studies have shown an association between Alpha variant infection and increased hospitalisation and 28-day mortality. However, none have addressed the impact on maximum severity of illness in the general population classified by the level of respiratory support required, or death. We aimed to do this. Methods In this retrospective multi-centre clinical cohort sub-study of the COG-UK consortium, 1475 samples from Scottish hospitalised and community cases collected between 1st November 2020 and 30th January 2021 were sequenced. We matched sequence data to clinical outcomes as the Alpha variant became dominant in Scotland and modelled the association between Alpha variant infection and severe disease using a 4-point scale of maximum severity by 28 days: 1. no respiratory support, 2. supplemental oxygen, 3. ventilation and 4. death. Results Our cumulative generalised linear mixed model analyses found evidence (cumulative odds ratio: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) of a positive association between increased clinical severity and lineage (Alpha variant versus pre-Alpha variants). Conclusions The Alpha variant was associated with more severe clinical disease in the Scottish population than co-circulating lineages