Binary Classifier Calibration using an Ensemble of Near Isotonic Regression Models

Learning accurate probabilistic models from data is crucial in many practical tasks in data mining. In this paper we present a new non-parametric calibration method called \textit{ensemble of near isotonic regression} (ENIR). The method can be considered as an extension of BBQ, a recently proposed calibration method, as well as the commonly used calibration method based on isotonic regression. ENIR is designed to address the key limitation of isotonic regression which is the monotonicity assumption of the predictions. Similar to BBQ, the method post-processes the output of a binary classifier to obtain calibrated probabilities. Thus it can be combined with many existing classification models. We demonstrate the performance of ENIR on synthetic and real datasets for the commonly used binary classification models. Experimental results show that the method outperforms several common binary classifier calibration methods. In particular on the real data, ENIR commonly performs statistically significantly better than the other methods, and never worse. It is able to improve the calibration power of classifiers, while retaining their discrimination power. The method is also computationally tractable for large scale datasets, as it is $O(N \log N)$ time, where $N$ is the number of samples

Transitions in active rotator systems: invariant hyperbolic manifold approach

Our main focus is on a general class of active rotators with mean field interactions, that is globally coupled large families of dynamical systems on the unit circle with non-trivial stochastic dynamics. Each isolated system is a diffusion process on a circle, with drift -delta V', where V' is a periodic function and delta is an intensity parameter. It is well known that the interacting dynamics is accurately described, in the limit of infinitely many interacting components, by a Fokker-Planck PDE and the model reduces for delta=0 to a particular case of the Kuramoto synchronization model, for which one can show the existence of a stable normally hyperbolic manifold of stationary solutions for the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation (we are interested in the case in which this manifold is non-trivial, that happens when the interaction is sufficiently strong, that is in the synchronized regime of the Kuramoto model). We use the robustness of normally hyperbolic structures to infer qualitative and quantitative results on the |delta|< delta0 cases, with delta0 a suitable threshold: as a matter of fact, we obtain an accurate description of the dynamics on the invariant manifold for delta=0 and we link it explicitly to the potential V . This approach allows to have a complete description of the phase diagram of the active rotators model, at least for |delta|< delta0, thus identifying for which values of the parameters (notably, noise intensity and/or coupling strength) the system exhibits periodic pulse waves or stabilizes at a quiescent resting state. Moreover, some of our results are very explicit and this brings a new insight into the combined effect of active rotator dynamics, noise and interaction. The links with the literature on specific systems, notably neuronal models, are discussed in detail.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figures. Version 2: some changes in introduction, added reference

The heterogeneous gas with singular interaction: Generalized circular law and heterogeneous renormalized energy

We introduce and analyze $d$ dimensional Coulomb gases with random charge distribution and general external confining potential. We show that these gases satisfy a large deviations principle. The analysis of the minima of the rate function (which is the leading term of the energy) reveals that at equilibrium, the particle distribution is a generalized circular law (i.e. with spherical support but non-necessarily uniform distribution). In the classical electrostatic external potential, there are infinitely many minimizers of the rate function. The most likely macroscopic configuration is a disordered distribution in which particles are uniformly distributed (for $d=2$, the circular law), and charges are independent of the positions of the particles. General charge-dependent confining potentials unfold this degenerate situation: in contrast, the particle density is not uniform, and particles spontaneously organize according to their charge. In that picture the classical electrostatic potential appears as a transition at which order is lost. Sub-leading terms of the energy are derived: we show that these are related to an operator, generalizing the Coulomb renormalized energy, which incorporates the heterogeneous nature of the charges. This heterogeneous renormalized energy informs us about the microscopic arrangements of the particles, which are non-standard, strongly depending on the charges, and include progressive and irregular lattices.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure

Spanier spaces and covering theory of non-homotopically path Hausdorff spaces

H. Fischer et al. (Topology and its Application, 158 (2011) 397-408.) introduced the Spanier group of a based space $(X,x)$ which is denoted by \psp. By a Spanier space we mean a space $X$ such that \psp=\pi_1(X,x), for every $x\in X$. In this paper, first we give an example of Spanier spaces. Then we study the influence of the Spanier group on covering theory and introduce Spanier coverings which are universal coverings in the categorical sense. Second, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of Spanier coverings for non-homotopically path Hausdorff spaces. Finally, we study the topological properties of Spanier groups and find out a criteria for the Hausdorffness of topological fundamental groups.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1102.0993 by other author

On locally 1-connectedness of quotient spaces and its applications to fundamental groups

Let $X$ be a locally 1-connected metric space and $A_1,A_2,...,A_n$ be connected, locally path connected and compact pairwise disjoint subspaces of $X$. In this paper, we show that the quotient space $X/(A_1,A_2,...,A_n)$ obtained from $X$ by collapsing each of the sets $A_i$'s to a point, is also locally 1-connected. Moreover, we prove that the induced continuous homomorphism of quasitopological fundamental groups is surjective. Finally, we give some applications to find out some properties of the fundamental group of the quotient space $X/(A_1,A_2,...,A_n)$.Comment: 11 page