Global and decomposition evolutionary support vector machine approaches for time series forecasting

Multi-step ahead Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a key tool for support- ing tactical decisions (e.g., planning resources). Recently, the support vector machine emerged as a natural solution for TSF due to its nonlinear learning capabilities. This paper presents two novel Evolutionary Support Vector Machine (ESVM) methods for multi-step TSF. Both methods are based on an Estimation Distribution Algorithm (EDA) search engine that automatically performs a simultaneous variable (number of inputs) and model (hyperparameters) selection. The Global ESVM (GESVM) uses all past patterns to fit the support vector machine, while the Decomposition ESVM (DESVM) separates the series into trended and stationary effects, using a distinct ESVM to forecast each effect and then summing both predictions into a sin- gle response. Several experiments were held, using six time series. The proposed approaches were analyzed under two criteria and compared against a recent Evolu- tionary Artificial Neural Network (EANN) and two classical forecasting methods, Holt-Winters and ARIMA. Overall, the DESVM and GESVM obtained competitive and high quality results. Furthermore, both ESVM approaches consume much less computational effort when compared with EANN.The authors wish to thank Ramon Sagarna for introducing the subject of EDA. The work of P. Cortez was supported by FEDER (program COMPETE and FCT) under project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022674

Structural plasticity in I-Ag7 links autoreactivity to hybrid insulin peptides in type I diabetes

We recently provided evidence for promiscuous recognition of several different hybrid insulin peptides (HIPs) by the highly diabetogenic, I-Ag7-restricted 4.1-T cell receptor (TCR). To understand the structural determinants of this phenomenon, we solved the structure of an agonistic HIP/I-Ag7 complex, both in isolation as well as bound to the 4.1-TCR. We find that HIP promiscuity of the 4.1-TCR is dictated, on the one hand, by an amino acid sequence pattern that ensures I-Ag7 binding and, on the other hand, by the presence of three acidic residues at positions P5, P7 and P8 that favor an optimal engagement by the 4.1-TCR's complementary determining regions. Surprisingly, comparison of the TCR-bound and unbound HIP/I-Ag7 structures reveals that 4.1-TCR binding triggers several novel and unique structural motions in both the I-Ag7 molecule and the peptide that are essential for docking. This observation indicates that the type 1 diabetes-associated I-Ag7 molecule is structurally malleable and that this plasticity allows the recognition of multiple peptides by individual TCRs that would otherwise be unable to do so.Copyright © 2022 Erausquin, Serra, Parras, Santamaria and López-Sagaseta

Prospective Study of Infection, Colonization and Carriage of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in an Outbreak Affecting 990 Patients

In the three years between November 1989 and October 1992, an outbreak of methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus (MRSA) affected 990 patients at a university hospital. The distribution of patients with carriage, colonization or infection was investigated prospectively. Nosocomial acquisition was confirmed in at least 928 patients, 525 of whom were identified from clinical specimens as being infected (n=418) or colonized (n=107) by MRSA. An additional 403 patients were identified from screening specimens, of whom 58 subsequently became infected and 18 colonized. Screening of the nose, throat and perineum detected 98 % of all carriers. Of the 580 infections in 476 patients, surgical wound, urinary tract and skin infections accounted for 58 % of the infections. Of the 476 infected patients, death was attributable to MRSA infection in 13 %. Colonization with MRSA was found in 127 patients and 42 % of 165 colonized sites were the skin. Auto-infection from nasal carriage or cross-infection, probably via staff hands, seemed to be the most common mode of acquisition of MRSA infections

A 300-year record of sedimentation in a small tilled catena in Hungary based on δ13C, δ15N, and C/N distribution

Purpose Soil erosion is one of the most serious hazards that endanger sustainable food production. Moreover, it has marked effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) with direct links to global warming. At the same time, soil organic matter (SOM) changes in composition and space could influence these processes. The aim of this study was to predict soil erosion and sedimentation volume and dynamics on a typical hilly cropland area of Hungary due to forest clearance in the early eighteenth century. Materials and methods Horizontal soil samples were taken along two parallel intensively cultivated complex convex-concave slopes from the eroded upper parts at mid-slope positions and from sedimentation in toe-slopes. Samples were measured for SOC, total nitrogen (TN) content, and SOMcompounds (δ13C, δ15N, and photometric indexes). They were compared to the horizons of an in situ non-eroded profile under continuous forest. On the depositional profile cores, soil depth prior to sedimentation was calculated by the determination of sediment thickness. Results and discussion Peaks of SOC in the sedimentation profiles indicated thicker initial profiles, while peaks in C/N ratio and δ13C distribution showed the original surface to be ~ 20 cm lower. Peaks of SOC were presumed to be the results of deposition of SOC-enriched soil from the upper slope transported by selective erosion of finer particles (silts and clays). Therefore, changes in δ13C values due to tillage and delivery would fingerprint the original surface much better under the sedimentation scenario than SOC content. Distribution of δ13C also suggests that the main sedimentation phase occurred immediately after forest clearance and before the start of intense cultivation with maize. Conclusions This highlights the role of relief in sheet erosion intensity compared to intensive cultivation. Patterns of δ13C indicate the original soil surface, even in profiles deposited as sediment centuries ago. The δ13C and C/N decrease in buried in situ profiles had the same tendency as recent forest soil, indicating constant SOM quality distribution after burial. Accordingly, microbiological activity, root uptake, and metabolism have not been effective enough to modify initial soil properties

Deciphering the Potential Coding of Human Cytomegalovirus: New Predicted Transmembrane Proteome

CMV is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised individuals that will benefit from the availability of a vaccine. Despite the efforts made during the last decade, no CMV vaccine is available. An ideal CMV vaccine should elicit a broad immune response against multiple viral antigens including proteins involved in virus-cell interaction and entry. However, the therapeutic use of neutralizing antibodies targeting glycoproteins involved in viral entry achieved only partial protection against infection. In this scenario, a better understanding of the CMV prote-ome potentially involved in viral entry may provide novel candidates to include in new potential vaccine design. In this study, we aimed to explore the CMV genome to identify proteins with puta-tive transmembrane domains to identify new potential viral envelope proteins. We have performed in silico analysis using the genome sequences of nine different CMV strains to predict the trans-membrane domains of the encoded proteins. We have identified 77 proteins with transmembrane domains, 39 of which were present in all the strains and were highly conserved. Among the core proteins, 17 of them such as UL10, UL139 or US33A have no ascribed function and may be good candidates for further mechanistic studies

PEG−peptide conjugates

The remarkable diversity of the self-assembly behavior of PEG−peptides is reviewed, including self-assemblies formed by PEG−peptides with β-sheet and α-helical (coiled-coil) peptide sequences. The modes of self-assembly in solution and in the solid state are discussed. Additionally, applications in bionanotechnology and synthetic materials science are summarized

Public Talks and Science Listens: A Community-Based Participatory Approach to Characterizing Environmental Health Risk Perceptions and Assessing Recovery Needs in the Wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

In response to the human health threats stemming from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, inter-disciplinary working groups representing P30-funded Centers of the National Institute Environmental Health Sciences were created to assess threats posed by mold, harmful alga blooms, chemical toxicants, and various infectious agents at selected sites throughout the hurricane impact zone. Because of proximity to impacted areas, UTMB NIEHS Center in Environmental Toxicology was charged with coordinating direct community outreach efforts, primarily in south Louisiana. In early October 2005, UTMB/NIEHS Center Community Outreach and Education Core, in collaboration with outreach counterparts at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center @ Smithville TX/Center for Research in Environmental Disease sent two groups into southern Louisiana. One group used Lafourche Parish as a base to deliver humanitarian aid and assess local needs for additional supplies during local recovery/reclamation. A second group, ranging through New Iberia, New Orleans, Chalmette, rural Terrebonne, Lafourche and Jefferson Parishes and Baton Rouge met with community environmental leaders, emergency personnel and local citizens to 1) sample public risk perceptions, 2) evaluate the scope and reach of ongoing risk communication efforts, and 3) determine how the NIEHS could best collaborate with local groups in environmental health research and local capacity building efforts. This scoping survey identified specific information gaps limiting efficacy of risk communication, produced a community “wish list” of potential collaborative research projects. The project provided useful heuristics for disaster response and management planning and a platform for future collaborative efforts in environmental health assessment and risk communication with local advocacy groups in south Terrebonne-Lafourche parishes

Cumplimiento, conocimiento y automedicación como factores asociados a los resultados clínicos negativos de la farmacoterapia

The patient plays a fundamental role in the attainment of good results in pharmacotherapy. Noncompliance,self-medication, or insufficient knowledge of the therapy being employed may provide asource for the causes of these negative clinical outcomes, otherwise known as medicine related problems(MRP). he Dader method was used in the evaluation, identification and classification of MRP. Theassociation of variables was established through the statistical Chi square test. Patient knowledge of themedicine, degree of compliance to therapy and self-medication were studied as causes of the negativeoutcomes encountered. 2556 patients were interviewed throughout the year that the study took place,giving a total of 2261 of valid cases. 33% presented an MRP as the cause of his/her visit to the hospitalemergency ward. Knowledge of the medicine, compliance and self-medication were only studied in thepopulation that presented an MRP and in this work it is demonstrated that these are aspects that areassociated with different dimensions of MRP. It is not possible to establish an association between theexistence or not of negative clinical outcomes in patients with the factors of knowledge of medication,compliance and self-medication. This is due to the fact that these variables are not attributable to thepatient himself, but rather are associated with the characteristics of each medicine.El paciente juega un papel primordial en la consecución de los resultados terapéuticos. El incumplimiento,la automedicación, o la falta de conocimiento del la farmacoterapia pueden ser causas de esosresultados clínicos negativos, denominados en ocasiones problemas relacionados con medicamentos(PRM). El método Dáder se utilizó para la evaluación, identificación y clasificación de PRM. Laasociación de variables se estableció mediante el estadístico chi cuadrado. El conocimiento de la medicación,el cumplimiento y la automedicación fueron estudiados como causa de estos resultados negativosde la medicación. Fueron entrevistados 2556 pacientes durante el año de estudio, resultando 2261 casosválidos. El 33 % presentaron un PRM como causa de visita a urgencias. El conocimiento de la medicación,el cumplimiento y la automedicación fueron estudiados solo en la población que presentó unPRM y se demuestra que son aspectos asociados a las distintas dimensiones de PRM. No es posibleestablecer asociación entre la existencia o no de resultados clínicos negativos en los pacientes con elconocimiento de la medicación, el cumplimiento y la automedicación, debido a que estas variables noson atributos del paciente sino que están asociadas a cada medicamento

Maternal and neonatal immune response to SARS-CoV-2, IgG transplacental transfer and cytokine profile

SARS-CoV-2 infected pregnant women are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 than non-pregnant women and have a higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes like intrauterine/fetal distress and preterm birth. However, little is known about the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on maternal and neonatal immunological profiles. In this study, we investigated the inflammatory and humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 in maternal and cord blood paired samples. Thirty-six pregnant women were recruited at delivery at Hospital Sant Joan de Déu, Barcelona, Spain, between April-August 2020, before having COVID-19 available vaccines. Maternal and pregnancy variables, as well as perinatal outcomes, were recorded in questionnaires. Nasopharyngeal swabs and maternal and cord blood samples were collected for SARS-CoV-2 detection by rRT-PCR and serology, respectively. We measured IgM, IgG and IgA levels to 6 SARS-CoV-2 antigens (spike [S], S1, S2, receptor-binding domain [RBD], nucleocapsid [N] full-length and C-terminus), IgG to N from 4 human coronaviruses (OC43, HKU1, 229E and NL63), and the concentrations of 30 cytokines, chemokines and growth factors by Luminex. Mothers were classified as infected or non-infected based on the rRT-PCR and serology results. Sixty-four % of pregnant women were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (positive by rRT-PCR during the third trimester and/or serology just after delivery). None of the newborns tested positive for rRT-PCR. SARS-CoV-2 infected mothers had increased levels of virus-specific antibodies and several cytokines. Those with symptoms had higher cytokine levels. IFN-? was increased in cord blood from infected mothers, and in cord blood of symptomatic mothers, EGF, FGF, IL-17 and IL-15 were increased, whereas RANTES was decreased. Maternal IgG and cytokine levels showed positive correlations with their counterparts in cord blood. rRT-PCR positive mothers showed lower transfer of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgGs, with a stronger effect when infection was closer to delivery. SARS-CoV-2 infected mothers carrying a male fetus had higher antibody levels and higher EGF, IL-15 and IL-7 concentrations. Our results show that SARS-CoV-2 infection during the third trimester of pregnancy induces a robust antibody and cytokine response at delivery and causes a significant reduction of the SARS-CoV-2-specific IgGs transplacental transfer, with a stronger negative effect when the infection is closer to delivery.Copyright © 2022 Rubio, Aguilar, Bustamante, Muñoz, Vázquez-Santiago, Santano, Vidal, Melero, Parras, Serra, Santamaria, Carolis, Izquierdo, Gómez-Roig, Dobaño, Moncunill and Mazarico

Fatigue bending behavior of cold-sprayed nickel-based superalloy coatings

Cold-sprayed Ni-based superalloy coatings offer new possibilities for manufacturing and repairing damaged components, such as gas turbine blades or other parts of aircraft engines. This development shines a new light on the conventional additive manufacturing technologies and significantly broadens application fields of cold spray. The idea is that cold spray can contribute to improving the fatigue properties of manufacturing and repaired components. This study deals with the analysis of the microstructural and mechanical properties of IN625 cold-sprayed coatings on V-notched carbon steel substrate. Process conditions of 1000 degrees C and 50bar were employed to produce coatings in V-notched (60 degrees and 90 degrees) samples in order to evaluate the fatigue crack behavior of the sprayed material. Bending tests were carried out in order to evaluate the crack propagation in the coatings during cyclic loading. The K factor was quantified for the two different notch geometries. After fatigue tests, the cracking mechanisms were observed through SEM. Optical microscopy, nanoindentation as a function of coating/substrate distance and corrosion tests were performed. Porosity measurements through image analyses were done to characterize the coatings' quality. The results achieved demonstrate that cold spray deposition and repair can contribute to resistance and to the increase in the global fatigue life of cracked structures