Impacts of the Commodity Provisions of the Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007 (FARM 21)

This report examines the impacts of the commodity provisions of the legislation introduced by U.S. Representative Ron Kind entitled the “Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007.”Agricultural and Food Policy,

Baseline Update for US Agricultural Markets

This document serves as a mid-year update to the 2007 FAPRI baseline prepared in January 2007. It reflects market developments and incorporates estimate information available in early August 2007.This report examines the impacts of the commodity provisions of the legislation introduced by U.S. Representative Ron Kind entitled the “Food and Agriculture Risk Management for the 21st Century Act of 2007.”Agricultural and Food Policy,

An instinct for detection: psychological perspectives on CCTV surveillance

The aim of this article is to inform and stimulate a proactive, multidisciplinary approach to research and development in surveillance-based detective work. In this article we review some of the key psychological issues and phenomena that practitioners should be aware of. We look at how human performance can be explained with reference to our biological and evolutionary legacy. We show how critical viewing conditions can be in determining whether observers detect or overlook criminal activity in video material. We examine situations where performance can be surprisingly poor, and cover situations where, even once confronted with evidence of these detection deficits, observers still underestimate their susceptibility to them. Finally we explain why the emergence of these relatively recent research themes presents an opportunity for police and law enforcement agencies to set a new, multidisciplinary research agenda focused on relevant and pressing issues of national and international importance

Detect the unexpected: a science for surveillance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to outline a strategy for research development focused on addressing the neglected role of visual perception in real life tasks such as policing surveillance and command and control settings. Approach – The scale of surveillance task in modern control room is expanding as technology increases input capacity at an accelerating rate. The authors review recent literature highlighting the difficulties that apply to modern surveillance and give examples of how poor detection of the unexpected can be, and how surprising this deficit can be. Perceptual phenomena such as change blindness are linked to the perceptual processes undertaken by law-enforcement personnel. Findings – A scientific programme is outlined for how detection deficits can best be addressed in the context of a multidisciplinary collaborative agenda between researchers and practitioners. The development of a cognitive research field specifically examining the occurrence of perceptual “failures” provides an opportunity for policing agencies to relate laboratory findings in psychology to their own fields of day-to-day enquiry. Originality/value – The paper shows, with examples, where interdisciplinary research may best be focussed on evaluating practical solutions and on generating useable guidelines on procedure and practice. It also argues that these processes should be investigated in real and simulated context-specific studies to confirm the validity of the findings in these new applied scenarios

California Almond Yield Prediction at the Orchard Level With a Machine Learning Approach.

California's almond growers face challenges with nitrogen management as new legislatively mandated nitrogen management strategies for almond have been implemented. These regulations require that growers apply nitrogen to meet, but not exceed, the annual N demand for crop and tree growth and nut production. To accurately predict seasonal nitrogen demand, therefore, growers need to estimate block-level almond yield early in the growing season so that timely N management decisions can be made. However, methods to predict almond yield are not currently available. To fill this gap, we have developed statistical models using the Stochastic Gradient Boosting, a machine learning approach, for early season yield projection and mid-season yield update over individual orchard blocks. We collected yield records of 185 orchards, dating back to 2005, from the major almond growers in the Central Valley of California. A large set of variables were extracted as predictors, including weather and orchard characteristics from remote sensing imagery. Our results showed that the predicted orchard-level yield agreed well with the independent yield records. For both the early season (March) and mid-season (June) predictions, a coefficient of determination (R 2) of 0.71, and a ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 2.6 were found on average. We also identified several key determinants of yield based on the modeling results. Almond yield increased dramatically with the orchard age until about 7 years old in general, and the higher long-term mean maximum temperature during April-June enhanced the yield in the southern orchards, while a larger amount of precipitation in March reduced the yield, especially in northern orchards. Remote sensing metrics such as annual maximum vegetation indices were also dominant variables for predicting the yield potential. While these results are promising, further refinement is needed; the availability of larger data sets and incorporation of additional variables and methodologies will be required for the model to be used as a fertilization decision support tool for growers. Our study has demonstrated the potential of automatic almond yield prediction to assist growers to manage N adaptively, comply with mandated requirements, and ensure industry sustainability

On Becoming an Ally

Becoming an ally is a challenging process, especially if you are a middle-aged, white heterosexual male. In one sense the journey is like no other, yet in another sense it mirrors the arduous task of running a marathon. Becoming an ally and running a marathon both start with the same question - “Why do it?” This seemingly easy question is followed by a set of similarities such as the ever-present parallel realities of oppression and gravity, reading and roadwork, finding ongoing support, and acting as an ally and actually running 26 miles, 385 yards. Come join the personal journey of one who is working on becoming a better and more fit person

(WP 2013-05) Future Implications of Debt and Deleveraging in the United States Economy

This paper will take a broad based approach in analyzing the structure of the U.S. economy with a particular emphasis on the disruptive U.S. recession and financial crisis which began circa 2008. The role of the U.S. government and the implications high levels of fiscal debt have on the projected growth path of the U.S. economy will be the primary focus of the paper. The discussion will show that the U.S. has likely entered a new, much more difficult stage in its history of economic growth. The short to medium term growth potential of the U.S. economy has fallen below the trend level established since WWII. The flexibility of the U.S. economy will help foster the necessary adjustments; however, this new era will force difficult fiscal and monetary policy choices that have different implications for different section of the population. The policy makers must recognize the changing dynamics of the U.S. economy and they must be prudent in drafting policy that establishes a stronger foundation for future growth. Younger generations in particular will need to take notice of the decisions being made and plan accordingly as it relates to their spending, saving and investment habits

The Pentagon and Global Development: Making Sense of the DoD’s Expanding Role

One of the most striking trends in U.S. foreign aid policy is the surging role of the Department of Defense (DoD). The Pentagon now accounts for over 20 percent of U.S. official development assistance (ODA). DoD has also expanded its provision of non-ODA assistance, including training and equipping of foreign military forces in fragile states. These trends raise concerns that U.S. foreign and development policies may become subordinated to a narrow, short-term security agenda at the expense of broader, longer-term diplomatic goals and institution-building efforts in the developing world. We find that the overwhelming bulk of ODA provided directly by DoD goes to Iraq and Afghanistan, which are violent environments that require the military to take a lead role through instruments like Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and the use of Commanders’ Emergency Response Program (CERP) funds. This funding surge is in principle temporary and likely to disappear when the U.S. involvement in both wars ends. But beyond these two conflicts, DoD has expanded (or proposes to expand) its operations in the developing world to include a number of activities that might be more appropriately undertaken by the State Department, USAID and other civilian actors. These initiatives include: the use of “Section 1206” authorities to train and equip foreign security forces; the establishment of the new Combatant Command for Africa (AFRICOM); and the administration’s proposed Building Global Partnerships (BGP) Act, which would expand DoD’s assistance authorities. We attribute the Pentagon’s growing aid role to three factors: the Bush administration’s strategic focus on the “global war on terror”; the vacuum left by civilian agencies, which struggle to deploy adequate numbers of personnel and to deliver assistance in insecure environments; and chronic under-investment by the United States in non-military instruments of state-building. We believe that DoD’s growing aid role beyond our two theaters of war carries potentially significant risks, by threatening to displace or overshadow broader U.S. foreign policy and development objectives in target countries and exacerbating the longstanding imbalance between the military and civilian components of the U.S. approach to state-building.Department of Defense, development, foriegn aid

Evaluating Modeled Intra- to Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney \u3cem\u3eZ\u3c/em\u3e Statistics

An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series’s data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets to a Mann–Whitney U statistic, and then normalizes the U statistic into a Z statistic. By detecting optimally significant IMD ranking regimes of arbitrary onset and varying duration, this process generates time series of Z values that are an adaptively low-passed and normalized transformation of the original time series. Principal component (PC) analysis of the Z series derived from observed annual temperatures at 92 U.S. grid locations during 1919–2008 shows two dominant modes: a PC1 mode with cool temperatures before the late 1960s and warm temperatures after the mid-1980s, and a PC2 mode indicating a multidecadal temperature cycle over the Southeast. Using a graphic analysis of a Z error metric that compares modeled and observed Z series, the three CMIP-3 model simulations tested here are shown to reproduce the PC1 mode but not the PC2 mode. By providing a way to compare grid-level IMD climate response patterns in observed and modeled data, this method can play a useful diagnostic role in future model development and decadal climate forecasting