Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-based reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimise the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent

The low-resolution version of HadGEM3 GC3.1: development and evaluation for global climate

A new climate model, HadGEM3 N96ORCA1, is presented that is part of the GC3.1 configuration of HadGEM3. N96ORCA1 has a horizontal resolution of ~135 km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean and requires an order of magnitude less computing power than its medium-resolution counterpart, N216ORCA025, while retaining a high degree of performance traceability. Scientific performance is compared both to observations and the N216ORCA025 model. N96ORCA1 reproduces observed climate mean and variability almost as well as N216ORCA025. Patterns of biases are similar across the two models. In the north-west Atlantic, N96ORCA1 shows a cold surface bias of up to 6K, typical of ocean models of this resolution. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (16 to 17 Sv) matches observations. In the Southern Ocean, a warm surface bias (up to 2K) is smaller than in N216ORCA025 and linked to improved ocean circulation. Model El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are close to observations. Both the cold bias in the Northern hemisphere (N96ORCA1) and the warm bias in the Southern hemisphere (N216ORCA025) develop in the first few decades of the simulations. As in many comparable climate models, simulated interhemispheric gradients of top-of-atmosphere radiation are larger than observations suggest, with contributions from both hemispheres. HadGEM3 GC3.1 N96ORCA1 constitutes the physical core of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and will be used extensively in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), both as part of UKESM1 and as a stand-alone coupled climate model

A Prospective Multicenter Study Evaluating Learning Curves and Competence in Endoscopic Ultrasound and Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Among Advanced Endoscopy Trainees: The Rapid Assessment of Trainee Endoscopy Skills (RATES) Study

Background and aims Based on the Next Accreditation System, trainee assessment should occur on a continuous basis with individualized feedback. We aimed to validate endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) learning curves among advanced endoscopy trainees (AETs) using a large national sample of training programs and to develop a centralized database that allows assessment of performance in relation to peers. Methods ASGE recognized training programs were invited to participate and AETs were graded on ERCP and EUS exams using a validated competency assessment tool that assesses technical and cognitive competence in a continuous fashion. Grading for each skill was done using a 4-point scoring system and a comprehensive data collection and reporting system was built to create learning curves using cumulative sum analysis. Individual results and benchmarking to peers were shared with AETs and trainers quarterly. Results Of the 62 programs invited, 20 programs and 22 AETs participated in this study. At the end of training, median number of EUS and ERCP performed/AET was 300 (range 155-650) and 350 (125-500). Overall, 3786 exams were graded (EUS:1137; ERCP–biliary 2280, pancreatic 369). Learning curves for individual endpoints, and overall technical/cognitive aspects in EUS and ERCP demonstrated substantial variability and were successfully shared with all programs. The majority of trainees achieved overall technical (EUS: 82%; ERCP: 60%) and cognitive (EUS: 76%; ERCP: 100%) competence at conclusion of training. Conclusions These results demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a centralized database to report individualized learning curves and confirm the substantial variability in time to achieve competence among AETs in EUS and ERCP

CMIP5 diversity in southern westerly jet projections related to historical sea ice area; strong link to strengthening and weak link to shift

A major feature of projected changes in Southern Hemisphere climate under future scenarios of increased greenhouse gas concentrations is the poleward shift and strengthening of the main eddy-driven belt of mid-latitude near-surface westerly winds (the westerly jet). However, there is large uncertainty in projected twenty-first century westerly jet changes across different climate models. Here the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models were evaluated to assess linkages between diversity in simulated sea ice area (SIA), Antarctic amplification and diversity in projected 21st century changes in the westerly jet following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5). To help disentangle cause and effect in the coupled model analysis, uncoupled atmosphere-only fixed sea-surface experiments from CMIP5 were also evaluated. It is shown that across all seasons approximately half of the variance in projected RCP8.5 jet strengthening is explained statistically by inter-model differences in simulated historical SIA, whereby CMIP5 models with larger baseline SIA exhibit more ice retreat and less jet strengthening in the future. However, links to jet shift are much weaker and only statistically significant in autumn and winter. It is suggested that a significant cross-model correlation between historical jet strength and projected strength change (r = -0.58) is, at least in part, a result of atmospherically-driven historical SIA biases, which then feed back onto the atmosphere in future projections. The results emphasize that SIA appears to act in concert with proximal changes in sea-surface temperature gradients in relation to model diversity in westerly jet projections

The sensitivity of British weather to ocean tides

Tides in shelf seas greatly impact ocean mixing and temperature structure. Using a regional‐coupled ocean–atmosphere prediction system, at ocean coastal process and atmosphere convection permitting scales, we assess the influence of tides on British weather by comparing simulations with and without tides. In summer, when seasonal stratification is particularly sensitive to tides, the sea‐surface temperature is up to 6 K cooler in simulations with tidal mixing. Tides cool the air temperature over the sea by up to 3 K, and nearby land by up to 1.4 K. The mean air temperature across Great Britain land areas cools by 0.3 K with tides. Changes in near‐surface stability result in decreases in summer mean wind speeds over the ocean. A 6% reduction in summer precipitation is found with tides, consistent with cooler temperatures. This study has implications for climate projections since global‐coupled models typically do not include tides

Improving the Southern Ocean cloud albedo biases in a general circulation model

The present generation of global climate models is characterised by insufficient reflection of short-wave radiation over the Southern Ocean due to a misrepresentation of clouds. This is a significant concern as it leads to excessive heating of the ocean surface, sea surface temperature biases and subsequent problems with atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we modify cloud microphysics in a recent version of the Met Office's Unified Model and show that choosing a more realistic value for the shape parameter of atmospheric ice crystals, in better agreement with theory and observations, benefits the simulation of short-wave radiation. In the model, for calculating the growth rate of ice crystals through deposition, the default assumption is that all ice particles are spherical in shape. We modify this assumption to effectively allow for oblique shapes or aggregates of ice crystals. Along with modified ice nucleation temperatures, we achieve a reduction in the annual-mean short-wave cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean by up to ∼4 W m−2 and seasonally much larger reductions compared to the control model. By slowing the growth of the ice phase, the model simulates substantially more supercooled liquid cloud

Sheep Updates 2015 - Katanning

This session covers fourteen papers from different authors: 1. The Sheep Industry Business Innovation project, Bruce Mullan, Sheep Industry Development Director, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 2. Western Australian sheep stocktake, Kate Pritchett and Kimbal Curtis, Research Officers, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 3. Wool demand and supply - short term volatility, long term opportunities, Chris Wilcox, Principal of Poimena Analysis 4. Lifetime management for maternal ewes, Mike Hyder, Research Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 5. National Livestock Identification System (NLIS) for sheep and goats - what is the NLIS database? Leigh Sonnermann, Biosecurity Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 6. Myths, Facts and the role of animal welfare in farming, Lynne Bradshaw, president, RSPCA WA 7. Latest research and development on breech strike prevention, Geoff Lindon, Manager Productivity and Animal Welfare, AWI 8. Lamb Survival Initiative and 100% Club, Katherine Davies, Development Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 9. How to boost your lamb survival, Joe Young, Sheep Consultant, R.B. Young and Son 10. Using genomic technology to increase genetic gain, Stephen Lee, School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, University of Adelaide and Sheep Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) & Ian Robertson, Merinotech WA 11. Economics of feed lotting - to feed-lot or not?, Lucy Anderton, Economist, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 12. Anameka and other shrubs to fill feed gaps, Hayley Norman CSIRO & Ed Barrett-Lennard UWA & Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 13. Sheep industry traineeships - encouraging a new generation of farmers, Jackie Jarvis, Consultant, Agrifood Labour & Skills 14. Opportunities and challenges facing youth in the sheep and wool industry, Ben Patrick, Yarrawonga Stu

Sheep Updates 2015 - Ravensthorpe

This session covers fourteen papers from different authors: 1. The Sheep Industry Business Innovation project, Bruce Mullan, Sheep Industry Development Director, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 2. Western Australian sheep stocktake, Kate Pritchett and Kimbal Curtis, Research Officers, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 3. Wool demand and supply - short term volatility, long term opportunities, Chris Wilcox, Principal of Poimena Analysis 4. Lifetime management for maternal ewes, Mike Hyder, Research Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 5. National Livestock Identification System (NLIS) for sheep and goats - what is the NLIS database? Leigh Sonnermann, Biosecurity Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 6. Myths, Facts and the role of animal welfare in farming, Lynne Bradshaw, president, RSPCA WA 7. Latest research and development on breech strike prevention, Geoff Lindon, Manager Productivity and Animal Welfare, AWI 8. Lamb Survival Initiative and 100% Club, Katherine Davies, Development Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 9. How to boost your lamb survival, Joe Young, Sheep Consultant, R.B. Young and Son 10. Using genomic technology to increase genetic gain, Stephen Lee, School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, University of Adelaide and Sheep Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) & Ian Robertson, Merinotech WA 11. Economics of feed lotting - to feed-lot or not?, Lucy Anderton, Economist, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 12. Anameka and other shrubs to fill feed gaps, Hayley Norman CSIRO & Ed Barrett-Lennard UWA & Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 13. Sheep industry traineeships - encouraging a new generation of farmers, Jackie Jarvis, Consultant, Agrifood Labour & Skills 14. Opportunities and challenges facing youth in the sheep and wool industry, Ben Patrick, Yarrawonga Stu

Variability in the global energy budget and transports 1985–2017

The study of energy flows in the Earth system is essential for understanding current climate change. To understand how energy is accumulating and being distributed within the climate system, an updated reconstruction of energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere, surface and within the atmosphere derived from observations is presented. New satellite and ocean data are combined with an improved methodology to quantify recent variability in meridional and ocean to land heat transports since 1985. A global top of atmosphere net imbalance is found to increase from 0.10 ± 0.61 W m−2 over 1985–1999 to 0.62 ± 0.1 W m−2 over 2000–2016, and the uncertainty of ± 0.61 W m−2 is related to the Argo ocean heat content changes (± 0.1 W m−2) and an additional uncertainty applying prior to 2000 relating to homogeneity adjustments. The net top of atmosphere radiative flux imbalance is dominated by the southern hemisphere (0.36 ± 0.04 PW, about 1.41 ± 0.16 W m−2) with an even larger surface net flux into the southern hemisphere ocean (0.79 ± 0.16 PW, about 3.1 ± 0.6 W m−2) over 2006–2013. In the northern hemisphere the surface net flux is of opposite sign and directed from the ocean toward the atmosphere (0.44 ± 0.16 PW, about 1.7 ± 0.6 W m−2). The sea ice melting and freezing are accounted for in the estimation of surface heat flux into the ocean. The northward oceanic heat transports are inferred from the derived surface fluxes and estimates of ocean heat accumulation. The derived cross-equatorial oceanic heat transport of 0.50 PW is higher than most previous studies, and the derived mean meridional transport of 1.23 PW at 26° N is very close to 1.22 PW from RAPID observation. The surface flux contribution dominates the magnitude of the oceanic transport, but the integrated ocean heat storage controls the interannual variability. Poleward heat transport by the atmosphere at 30° N is found to increase after 2000 (0.17 PW decade−1). The multiannual mean (2006–2013) transport of energy by the atmosphere from ocean to land is estimated as 2.65 PW, and is closely related to the ENSO variability

Epidemiology of injuries presenting to the national hospital in Kampala, Uganda: implications for research and policy

BackgroundDespite the growing burden of injuries in LMICs, there are still limited primary epidemiologic data to guide health policy and health system development. Understanding the epidemiology of injury in developing countries can help identify risk factors for injury and target interventions for prevention and treatment to decrease disability and mortality.AimTo estimate the epidemiology of the injury seen in patients presenting to the government hospital in Kampala, the capital city of Uganda.MethodsA secondary analysis of a prospectively collected database collected by the Injury Control Centre-Uganda at the Mulago National Referral Hospital, Kampala, Uganda, 2004-2005.ResultsFrom 1 August 2004 to 12 August 2005, a total of 3,750 injury-related visits were recorded; a final sample of 3,481 records were analyzed. The majority of patients (62%) were treated in the casualty department and then discharged; 38% were admitted. Road traffic injuries (RTIs) were the most common causes of injury for all age groups in this sample, except for those under 5 years old, and accounted for 49% of total injuries. RTIs were also the most common cause of mortality in trauma patients. Within traffic injuries, more passengers (44%) and pedestrians (30%) were injured than drivers (27%). Other causes of trauma included blunt/penetrating injuries (25% of injuries) and falls (10%). Less than 5% of all patients arriving to the emergency department for injuries arrived by ambulance.ConclusionsRoad traffic injuries are by far the largest cause of both morbidity and mortality in Kampala. They are the most common cause of injury for all ages, except those younger than 5, and school-aged children comprise a large proportion of victims from these incidents. The integration of injury control programs with ongoing health initiatives is an urgent priority for health and development