Statistical approaches to the surveillance of infectious diseases for veterinary public health

This technical report covers the aspect of using statistical methodology for the monitoring of routinely collected surveillance data in veterinary public health. An account of the Farrington algorithm and Poisson cumulative sum schemes for the detection of aberrations is given with special attention devoted to the occurrence of seasonality and spatial aggregation of the time series. Modelling approaches for retrospective analysis of surveillance counts are described. To illustrate the applicability of the methodology in veterinary public health, data from the surveillance of rabies among fox in Hesse, Germany, are analysed

Analyzing veterinary surveillance data: Approaches to model the relationship between disease incidence and cattle trade

Two approaches to the analysis of registry data for bovine diseases with regard to the relationship between disease incidence and cattle trade are proposed. Firstly, a parameter-driven spatio-temporal disease mapping model formulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework is used. Various cattle movement parameters, e.g. the number and proportion of in-movements from infected regions, can be included as potential covariates. Within this context problems of such an endogenous covariate are discussed. Since a purely parameter-driven approach is often not adequate to depict local epidemics, a so-called observationdriven infectious disease model is proposed as a second possibility. It includes an autoregressive part for counts in the region of interest in the past. Additionally, the sum of previous cases in other regions weighted by cattle movements is added to assess the spread of the disease by trading. Both models are applied to cases of Coxiellosis in Switzerland, 2005 to 2009

weSPOT: a cloud-based approach for personal and social inquiry

Scientific inquiry is at the core of the curricula of schools and universities across Europe. weSPOT is a new European initiative proposing a cloud-based approach for personal and social inquiry. weSPOT aims at enabling students to create their mashups out of cloud-based tools in order to perform scientific investigations. Students will also be able to share their inquiry accomplishments in social networks and receive feedback from the learning environment and their peers

weSPOT: A personal and social approach to inquiry-based learning

weSPOT is a new European initiative proposing a novel approach for personal and social inquiry-based learning in secondary and higher education. weSPOT aims at enabling students to create their mash-ups out of cloud based tools and services in order to perform scientific investigations. Students will also be able to share their inquiry accomplishments in social networks and receive feedback from the learning environment and their peers. This paper presents the research framework of the weSPOT project, as well as the initial inquiry-based learning scenarios that will be piloted by the project in real-life educational settings

The Relative Humidity in an Isentropic Advection–Condensation Model: Limited Poleward Influence and Properties of Subtropical Minima

An idealized model of advection and condensation of water vapor is considered as a representation of processes influencing the humidity distribution along isentropic surfaces in the free troposphere. Results are presented for how the mean relative humidity distribution varies in response to changes in the distribution of saturation specific humidity and in the amplitude of a tropical moisture source. Changes in the tropical moisture source are found to have little effect on the relative humidity poleward of the subtropical minima, suggesting a lack of poleward influence despite much greater water vapor concentrations at lower latitudes. The subtropical minima in relative humidity are found to be located just equatorward of the inflection points of the saturation specific humidity profile along the isentropic surface. The degree of mean subsaturation is found to vary with the magnitude of the meridional gradient of saturation specific humidity when other parameters are held fixed. The atmospheric relevance of these results is investigated by comparison with the positions of the relative humidity minima in reanalysis data and by examining poleward influence of relative humidity in simulations with an idealized general circulation model. It is suggested that the limited poleward influence of relative humidity may constrain the propagation of errors in simulated humidity fields

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the mode

Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes

Water vapor is not only Earth's dominant greenhouse gas. Through the release of latent heat when it condenses, it also plays an active role in dynamic processes that shape the global circulation of the atmosphere and thus climate. Here we present an overview of how latent heat release affects atmosphere dynamics in a broad range of climates, ranging from extremely cold to extremely warm. Contrary to widely held beliefs, atmospheric circulation statistics can change non-monotonically with global-mean surface temperature, in part because of dynamic effects of water vapor. For example, the strengths of the tropical Hadley circulation and of zonally asymmetric tropical circulations, as well as the kinetic energy of extratropical baroclinic eddies, can be lower than they presently are both in much warmer climates and in much colder climates. We discuss how latent heat release is implicated in such circulation changes, particularly through its effect on the atmospheric static stability, and we illustrate the circulation changes through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. This allows us to explore a continuum of climates, constrain macroscopic laws governing this climatic continuum, and place past and possible future climate changes in a broader context.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figure

The Star Formation History of LGS 3

We have determined the distance and star formation history of the Local Group dwarf galaxy LGS 3 from deep Hubble Space Telescope WFPC2 observations. LGS 3 is intriguing because ground-based observations showed that, while its stellar population is dominated by old, metal-poor stars, there is a handful of young, blue stars. Also, the presence of HI gas makes this a possible ``transition object'' between dwarf spheroidal and dwarf irregular galaxies. The HST data are deep enough to detect the horizontal branch and young main sequence for the first time. A new distance of D=620+/-20 kpc has been measured from the positions of the TRGB, the red clump, and the horizontal branch. The mean metallicity of the stars older than 8 Gyr is Fe/H = -1.5 +/- 0.3. The most recent generation of stars has Fe/H ~ -1. For the first few Gyr the global star formation rate was several times higher than the historical average and has been fairly constant since then. However, we do see significant changes in stellar populations and star formation history with radial position in the galaxy. Most of the young stars are found in the central 63 pc (21''), where the star formation rate has been relatively constant, while the outer parts have had a declining star formation rate.Comment: To appear in The Astrophysical Journal, 26 pages, 14 figures, uses AASTe

Certification of the mass concentration of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, mercury, lead, nickel and selenium in wastewater: ERM®-CA713

The report describes the production and certification of the certified reference material ERM-CA713 Wastewater. The material was produced to replace the existing materials BCR-713, BCR-714 and BCR-715 because of changes in the legislation, in particular the requirement for the monitoring of Hg as a priority substance. The material is certified for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Se. and will serve as a quality control tool for the laboratories involved in the mandatory monitoring of the Priority Substances prescribed under the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC).JRC.D.2-Standards for Innovation and sustainable Developmen

Written submission from the School of Law, Politics and Sociology, University of Sussex (OEU0007)to the Women and equalities Committee inquiry: ensuring strong equalities legislation after EU exit

Undoubtedly, the UK’s equalities legislation has become stronger in recent years providing important protection for people who experience discrimination. Nevertheless, this has happened in the context of widening economic inequality, cuts in public services and restrictions on access to justice – all of which make it harder for victims of discrimination to realise the rights that exist on paper. If the UK leaves the EU, the next few years will be a period of great political, economic and social instability when it will be vital to ensure that protection against discrimination is strengthened not weakened and that a culture of support for equality and human rights is promoted throughout the UK. The rights that must be protected benefit everyone in the UK, not only supporting marginalised people and victims of discrimination but also making workplaces fairer for all and underpinning the legitimacy of our democratic institutions