Marginal analysis of longitudinal count data in long sequences: Methods and applications to a driving study

Most of the available methods for longitudinal data analysis are designed and validated for the situation where the number of subjects is large and the number of observations per subject is relatively small. Motivated by the Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study (NTDS), which represents the exact opposite situation, we examine standard and propose new methodology for marginal analysis of longitudinal count data in a small number of very long sequences. We consider standard methods based on generalized estimating equations, under working independence or an appropriate correlation structure, and find them unsatisfactory for dealing with time-dependent covariates when the counts are low. For this situation, we explore a within-cluster resampling (WCR) approach that involves repeated analyses of random subsamples with a final analysis that synthesizes results across subsamples. This leads to a novel WCR method which operates on separated blocks within subjects and which performs better than all of the previously considered methods. The methods are applied to the NTDS data and evaluated in simulation experiments mimicking the NTDS.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS507 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Gaston Bachelard and Contemporary Philosophy

This special issue aims to redress the balance and to open up Gaston Bachelard's work beyond a small in-crowd of experts and aficionado’s in France. It aims to stimulate the discovery of new and understudied aspects of Bachelard’s work, including aspects of the intellectual milieu he was working in. Fortunately, for this purpose we were able to rely both on renowned Bachelard specialists, such as Hans-Jörg Rheinberg-er, Cristina Chimisso and Dominique Lecourt, as well as on a number of younger scholars who are discovering their work in a different intellectual context. At the same time we also want to reassess the value of this oeuvre, which also entails examining the reasons and causes of the relative neglect of Bachelard’s work in recent times. Has it exhausted its possibilities? Does it have intrinsic limitations that have contributed to the eclipse, as some influential, mainly French, philoso-phers have more or less explicitly suggested

Microwave characterization of slotline on high resistivity silicon for antenna feed network

Conventional silicon wafers have low resistivity and consequently unacceptably high value of dielectric attenuation constant. Microwave circuits for phased array antenna systems fabricated on these wafers therefore have low efficiency. By choosing a silicon substrate with sufficiently high resistivity it is possible to make the dielectric attenuation constant of the interconnecting microwave transmission lines approach those of GaAs or InP. In order for this to be possible, the transmission lines must be characterized. In this presentation, the effective dielectric constant (epsilon sub eff) and attenuation constant (alpha) of a slotline on high resistivity (5000 to 10 000 ohm-cm) silicon wafer will be discussed. The epsilon sub eff and alpha are determined from the measured resonant frequencies and the corresponding insertion loss of a slotline ring resonator. The results for slotline will be compared with microstrip line and coplanar waveguide

On the ground electronic states of copper silicide and its ions

The low-lying electronic states of SiCu, SiCu^+, and SiCu^− have been studied using a variety of high-level ab initio techniques. As expected on the basis of simple orbital occupancy and bond forming for Si(s^2p^2)+Cu(s^1) species, ^2Π_r, ^1Σ^+, and ^3Σ^− states were found to be the ground electronic states for SiCu, SiCu^+, and SiCu^−, respectively; the ^2Π_r state is not that suggested in most recent experimental studies. All of these molecules were found to be quite strongly bound although the bond lengths, bond energies, and harmonic frequencies vary slightly among them, as a result of the nonbonding character of the 2π-MO (molecular orbital) [composed almost entirely of the Si 3p-AO (atomic orbital)], the occupation of which varies from 0 to 2 within the ^1Σ^+, ^2Π_r, and ^3Σ^− series. The neutral SiCu is found to have bound excited electronic states of ^4Σ^−, ^2Δ, ^2Σ^+, and ^2Π_i symmetry lying 0.5, 1.2, 1.8, and 3.2 eV above the ^2Π_r ground state. It is possible but not yet certain that the ^2Π_i state is, in fact, the “B state” observed in the recent experimental studies by Scherer, Paul, Collier, and Saykally

A Method for Calibration of the Local Magnitude Scale Based on Relative Spectral Amplitudes, and Application to the San Juan Bautista, California, Area

We develop and use a spectral empirical Green’s function approach to estimate the relative source amplitudes of earthquakes near San Juan Bautista, California. We isolate the source amplitudes from path effects by comparing the recorded spectra of pairs of events with similar location and focal mechanism, without computing the path effect. With this method, we estimate the relative moments of 1600 M 1.5–4 local earthquakes, and we use these moments to recalibrate the duration magnitude scale in this region. The estimated moments of these small earthquakes increase with catalog magnitude M_D roughly proportionally to 10^(1.1M_D), slightly more slowly than a moment‐magnitude scaling of 10^(1.5M_w). This more accurate magnitude scaling can be used in analyses of the local earthquakes, such as comparisons between the seismic moments and geodetic observations

Updated repeat orbit interferometry package released

RO1_PAC V2.3, a Repeat Orbit Interferometry package that allows topographic and surface change researchers to apply Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methods, is now freely available to the community InSAR is the synthesis of conventional SAR and interferometry techniques that have been developed over several decades in radio astronomy and radar remote sensing. In recent years, it has opened entirely new application areas for radar in the Earth system sciences, including topographic mapping and geodesy. RO1_PAC, developed primarily to work with European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite radar data, currently supports ERS-1, ERS-2, and Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS) radar data, and is configurable to work with “strip-mode” data from all existing satellite radar instruments. The first release of RO1_ PAC (V1.0) was made quietly in 2000, and roughly 30 groups in the academic and research community currently use it

Characterization of a CCD array for Bragg spectroscopy

The average pixel distance as well as the relative orientation of an array of 6 CCD detectors have been measured with accuracies of about 0.5 nm and 50 $\mu$rad, respectively. Such a precision satisfies the needs of modern crystal spectroscopy experiments in the field of exotic atoms and highly charged ions. Two different measurements have been performed by illuminating masks in front of the detector array by remote sources of radiation. In one case, an aluminum mask was irradiated with X-rays and in a second attempt, a nanometric quartz wafer was illuminated by a light bulb. Both methods gave consistent results with a smaller error for the optical method. In addition, the thermal expansion of the CCD detectors was characterized between -105 C and -40 C.Comment: Submitted to Review of Scientific Instrument

High stakes and low bars: How international recognition shapes the conduct of civil wars

When rebel groups engage incumbent governments in war for control of the state, questions of international recognition arise. International recognition determines which combatants can draw on state assets, receive overt military aid, and borrow as sovereigns—all of which can have profound consequences for the military balance during civil war. How do third-party states and international organizations determine whom to treat as a state's official government during civil war? Data from the sixty-one center-seeking wars initiated from 1945 to 2014 indicate that military victory is not a prerequisite for recognition. Instead, states generally rely on a simple test: control of the capital city. Seizing the capital does not foreshadow military victory. Civil wars often continue for many years after rebels take control and receive recognition. While geopolitical and economic motives outweigh the capital control test in a small number of important cases, combatants appear to anticipate that holding the capital will be sufficient for recognition. This expectation generates perverse incentives. In effect, the international community rewards combatants for capturing or holding, by any means necessary, an area with high concentrations of critical infrastructure and civilians. In the majority of cases where rebels contest the capital, more than half of its infrastructure is damaged or the majority of civilians are displaced (or both), likely fueling long-term state weakness