Does Growth & Quality of Capital Markets drive Foreign Capital? The case of Cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions from leading Emerging Economies

Is there any interrelationship between firm level FDI in the form of cross border Mergers & Acquisitions and capital markets growth and quality? We addressed this question using panel data of cross border M & A for nine emerging economies. Our study period goes from 1987 to 2006. We find that the stock market variables, viz., capitalization and value addition encourage the number of deals and value of cross border Mergers & Acquisitions. However, the association with regulatory and financial reforms is much stronger and robust.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64368/1/wp911.pd

External shocks and policy alternatives in small open economies: The case of El Salvador

In this paper we used a dynamic, regionalized computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the effect of various negative balance of payments shocks on output and employment and the effect of different alternative investment strategies on growth. The model shows clearly how sensitive El Salvador is to remittance or terms of trade shocks. Each 10 percent reduction in remittances lowers gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2 percent and household consumption by 1.4 percent, with the cost rising as the shock intensifies. Any negative balance of payments shock forces a reduction in absorption, production, and employment and a real devaluation. Because El Salvador's economy is dollarized, that real devaluation can only come about through a fall in domestic prices brought about by recession. We show that the impact of the shock on output depends on how flexible wages are—the impact is smaller when real wages are flexible and greatest when they are fixed in dollars. We used the CGE model to analyze alternative investment strategies for increasing the growth rate. The investment share of GDP is low, and the model makes it clear that without some strategy for increasing investment, the economy's overall growth rate is likely to remain low. We hypothesized two alternative growth rates for investment, both associated with an increase in exogenous technical change. Both strategies require a marginal increase in the share of output devoted to investment. We also showed that if El Salvador can increase the investment share from 15.5 percent to just 16 percent over five years by producing a growth rate in investment of 8 percent per year, and if that increase produces a 1 percent increase in the rate of technical change in all sectors, then the growth rate of the economy will practically double, rising from 2.85 percent to 4.95 percent per year. There are equally favorable effects on employment for unskilled labor and on wages for skilled labor.Development strategies, general equilibrium models, Regional development, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling,

Market Risk Dynamics and Competitiveness After the Euro: Evidence from EMU Members

In this paper we propose an empirical model that considers theoretical facts on the relationship between real exchange rates and the net exports of the economy to supplement the interaction of a number of financial and economic factors with the stock market. We discuss the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on market risk in terms of Value at Risk (VaR). Our empirical findings show that common currency introduction produced increments in VaR whereas European stock returns are more sensitive to changes in competitiveness regarding the EMU rather than national exports. Finally, we show that the synchronisation of variation in competitiveness through the introduction of a single currency has made these changes more decisive in explaining financial market fluctuations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64351/1/wp916.pd

Rapid Economic Growth at the Cost of Environment Degradation? Panel Data Evidience from BRIC Economies

The paper investigates whether the decline in environmental quality in BRIC economies is due to high energy consumption level which is a resultant of rapid economic growth. We answer this using environmental, macroeconomic and financial variables along with Kyoto Protocol indicators based on panel data from 1992 to 2004.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64409/1/wp908.pd