Single-equation tests for cointegration with GLS detrended data

We provide GLS-based versions of two widely used approaches for testing whether or not non-stationary economic time series are cointegrated: single-equation static re- gression or residual-based tests and single-equation conditional error correction model (ECM) based tests. Our approach is to consider nearly optimal tests for unit roots and apply them in the cointegration context. Our GLS versions of the tests do in- deed provide substantial improvements over their OLS counterparts. We derive the local asymptotic power functions of all tests considered for a DGP with weakly ex- ogenous regressors. This allows obtaining the relevant non-centrality parameter to quasi-di§erence the data. We investigate the e§ect of non-weakly exogenous regressors via simulations. With weakly exogenous regressors strongly correlated with the depen- dent variable, the ECM tests are clearly superior. When the regressors are potentially non-weakly exogenous, the residuals-based tests are clearly preferred

Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.Comment: 30th international workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy, Chamonix : France (2010

Optimal growth for linear processes with affine control

We analyse an optimal control with the following features: the dynamical system is linear, and the dependence upon the control parameter is affine. More precisely we consider $\dot x_\alpha(t) = (G + \alpha(t) F)x_\alpha(t)$, where $G$ and $F$ are $3\times 3$ matrices with some prescribed structure. In the case of constant control $\alpha(t)\equiv \alpha$, we show the existence of an optimal Perron eigenvalue with respect to varying $\alpha$ under some assumptions. Next we investigate the Floquet eigenvalue problem associated to time-periodic controls $\alpha(t)$. Finally we prove the existence of an eigenvalue (in the generalized sense) for the optimal control problem. The proof is based on the results by [Arisawa 1998, Ann. Institut Henri Poincar\'e] concerning the ergodic problem for Hamilton-Jacobi equations. We discuss the relations between the three eigenvalues. Surprisingly enough, the three eigenvalues appear to be numerically the same

Residuals-based tests for cointegration with generalized least-squares detrended data

We provide generalized least-squares (GLS) detrended versions of single-equation static regression or residuals-based tests for testing whether or not non-stationary time series are cointegrated. Our approach is to consider nearly optimal tests for unit roots and to apply them in the cointegration context. We derive the local asymptotic power functions of all tests considered for a triangular data-generating process, imposing a directional restriction such that the regressors are pure integrated processes. Our GLS versions of the tests do indeed provide substantial power improvements over their ordinary least-squares counterparts. Simulations show that the gains in power are important and stable across various configurations

Global stability for the prion equation with general incidence

We consider the so-called prion equation with the general incidence term introduced in [Greer et al., 2007], and we investigate the stability of the steady states. The method is based on the reduction technique introduced in [Gabriel, 2012]. The argument combines a recent spectral gap result for the growth-fragmentation equation in weighted $L^1$ spaces and the analysis of a nonlinear system of three ordinary differential equations

High-order WENO scheme for Polymerization-type equations

Polymerization of proteins is a biochimical process involved in different diseases. Mathematically, it is generally modeled by aggregation-fragmentation-type equations. In this paper we consider a general polymerization model and propose a high-order numerical scheme to investigate the behavior of the solution. An important property of the equation is the mass conservation. The fifth-order WENO scheme is built to preserve the total mass of proteins along time

Cyclic asymptotic behaviour of a population reproducing by fission into two equal parts

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the following linear growth-fragmentation equation$$\dfrac{\partial}{\partial t} u(t,x) + \dfrac{\partial}{\partial x} \big(x u(t,x)\big) + B(x) u(t,x) =4 B(2x)u(t,2x),$$ and prove that under fairly general assumptions on the division rate $B(x),$ its solution converges towards an oscillatory function,explicitely given by the projection of the initial state on the space generated by the countable set of the dominant eigenvectors of the operator. Despite the lack of hypo-coercivity of the operator, the proof relies on a general relative entropy argument in a convenient weighted $L^2$ space, where well-posedness is obtained via semigroup analysis. We also propose a non-dissipative numerical scheme, able to capture the oscillations

Fine asymptotics of profiles and relaxation to equilibrium for growth-fragmentation equations with variable drift rates

We are concerned with the long-time behavior of the growth-fragmentation equation. We prove fine estimates on the principal eigenfunctions of the growth-fragmentation operator, giving their first-order behavior close to 0 and $+\infty$. Using these estimates we prove a spectral gap result by following the technique in [Caceres, Canizo, Mischler 2011, JMPA], which implies that solutions decay to the equilibrium exponentially fast. The growth and fragmentation coefficients we consider are quite general, essentially only assumed to behave asymptotically like power laws