Future Contingents and the Logic of Temporal Omniscience

At least since Aristotle’s famous 'sea-battle' passages in On Interpretation 9, some substantial minority of philosophers has been attracted to the doctrine of the open future--the doctrine that future contingent statements are not true. But, prima facie, such views seem inconsistent with the following intuition: if something has happened, then (looking back) it was the case that it would happen. How can it be that, looking forwards, it isn’t true that there will be a sea battle, while also being true that, looking backwards, it was the case that there would be a sea battle? This tension forms, in large part, what might be called the problem of future contingents. A dominant trend in temporal logic and semantic theorizing about future contingents seeks to validate both intuitions. Theorists in this tradition--including some interpretations of Aristotle, but paradigmatically, Thomason (1970), as well as more recent developments in Belnap, et. al (2001) and MacFarlane (2003, 2014)--have argued that the apparent tension between the intuitions is in fact merely apparent. In short, such theorists seek to maintain both of the following two theses: (i) the open future: Future contingents are not true, and (ii) retro-closure: From the fact that something is true, it follows that it was the case that it would be true. It is well-known that reflection on the problem of future contingents has in many ways been inspired by importantly parallel issues regarding divine foreknowledge and indeterminism. In this paper, we take up this perspective, and ask what accepting both the open future and retro-closure predicts about omniscience. When we theorize about a perfect knower, we are theorizing about what an ideal agent ought to believe. Our contention is that there isn’t an acceptable view of ideally rational belief given the assumptions of the open future and retro-closure, and thus this casts doubt on the conjunction of those assumptions

La construcción de fuentes para reconstruir la historia de los medios en la provincia de Misiones: el documental como rescate de la historia y memoria de la televisión.

A construção da história da televisão em Misiones foi alcançada a partir dos testemunhos orais daqueles foram incorporados ao meio em suas origens. Então, a gente fez um documentário sobre a participação de LT85 Canal 12 durante o conflito das Malvinas começou em 02 de abril de 1982.O objetivo deste artigo é analisar e refletir sobre as possibilidades oferecidas por essas fontes para reconstruir e aprender a história da mídia no passado recente. La construcción de fuentes para reconstruir la historia de los medios en la provincia de Misiones: el documental como rescate de la historia y memoria de la televisión.Resumen: La construcción de la historia de la televisión en Misiones se logró a partir de los testimonios orales de quienes se incorporaron a ese medio en sus orígenes. Así, realizamos un documental sobre la participación de LT85 Canal 12 durante el conflicto de Malvinas iniciado el 2 de abril de 1982. El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar y reflexionar sobre las posibilidades que nos brindan estas fuentes para reconstruir y conocer la historia de los medios en el pasado reciente.Palabras claves: Fuente oral; metodología; documental; historiografía; frontera.The construction of sources to rebuild the history of the means in the Misiones Province: The documentary as rescue of history and memory ’s televisionAbstract:The construction of the history of television in Misiones was achieved from the oral testimonies of those were incorporated into the medium in its origins. So, we made a documentary about the participation of LT85 Channel 12 during the Malvinas conflict started on April 2, 1982. The aim of this paper is to analyze and reflect on the possibilities offered by these sources to reconstruct and learn the history of the media in the recent past.Keywords: Oral source; methodology; documentary; historiography, border

La construcción de fuentes para reconstruir la historia de los medios en la provincia de Misiones: el documental como rescate de la historia y memoria de la televisión.

A construção de fontes para reconstruir a história dos meios na província de misiones: o documental como resgate de história e memória da televisãoA construção da história da televisão em Misiones foi alcançada a partir dos testemunhos orais daqueles foram incorporados ao meio em suas origens. Então, a gente fez um documentário sobre a participação de LT85 Canal 12 durante o conflito das Malvinas começou em 02 de abril de 1982.O objetivo deste artigo é analisar e refletir sobre as possibilidades oferecidas por essas fontes para reconstruir e aprender a história da mídia no passado recente. La construcción de fuentes para reconstruir la historia de los medios en la provincia de Misiones: el documental como rescate de la historia y memoria de la televisión.Resumen: La construcción de la historia de la televisión en Misiones se logró a partir de los testimonios orales de quienes se incorporaron a ese medio en sus orígenes. Así, realizamos un documental sobre la participación de LT85 Canal 12 durante el conflicto de Malvinas iniciado el 2 de abril de 1982. El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar y reflexionar sobre las posibilidades que nos brindan estas fuentes para reconstruir y conocer la historia de los medios en el pasado reciente.Palabras claves: Fuente oral; metodología; documental; historiografía; frontera.The construction of sources to rebuild the history of the means in the Misiones Province: The documentary as rescue of history and memory ’s televisionAbstract:The construction of the history of television in Misiones was achieved from the oral testimonies of those were incorporated into the medium in its origins. So, we made a documentary about the participation of LT85 Channel 12 during the Malvinas conflict started on April 2, 1982. The aim of this paper is to analyze and reflect on the possibilities offered by these sources to reconstruct and learn the history of the media in the recent past.Keywords: Oral source; methodology; documentary; historiography, border

The MACHO Project 9 Million Star Color-Magnitude Diagram of the Large Magellanic Cloud

We present a 9 million star color-magnitude diagram (9M CMD) of the LMC bar. The 9M CMD reveals a complex superposition of different age and metallicity stellar populations, with important stellar evolutionary phases occurring over 3 orders of magnitude in number density. First, we count the non-variable supergiants, the associated Cepheids, and measure the effective temperatures defining the instability strip. Lifetime predictions of stellar evolution theory are tested, with implications for the origin of low-luminosity Cepheids. The highly-evolved AGB stars have a bimodal distribution in brightness, which we interpret as discrete old populations (>1 Gyr). The faint AGB may be metal-poor and very old. We identify the clusters NGC 411 and M3 as templates for the admixture of old stellar populations. However, there are indications that the old and metal-poor field population has a red HB morphology: the RR Lyraes lie on the red edge of the instability strip, the AGB-bump is very red, and the ratio of AGB-bump stars to RR Lyraes is quite large. If the HB second parameter is age, the old and metal-poor field population likely formed after the oldest clusters. Lifetime predictions of stellar evolution theory lead us to associate a significant fraction of the red HB clump giants with the same old and metal-poor population producing the RR Lyraes and the AGB-bump. In this case, compared to the age-dependent luminosity predictions of stellar evolution theory, the red HB clump is too bright relative to the RR Lyraes and AGB-bump. Last, the surface density profile of RR Lyraes is fit by an exponential, favoring a disk-like rather than spheroidal distribution. We conclude that the age of the LMC disk is probably similar to the age of the Galactic disk. (ABRIDGED)Comment: to appear in the Astronomical Journal, 49 pages, 12 figures, aaspp4.st

Hume über Übel [Hume on evil]

In den Abschnitten X und XI der Dialoge über Natürliche Religion legt Hume seine Ansichten zum traditionellen theologischen Problem des Übels dar. Humes Anmerkungen zu diesem Thema scheinen mir eine reichhaltige Mischung aus Einsichten und Irrtümern zu enthalten. Mein Ziel in diesem Aufsatz besteht darin, diese entgegengesetzten Elemente seiner Diskussion zu entwirren

Exponential random graph models for management research: a case study of executive recruitment

We introduce a recent development in the statistical analysis of relational data that offers rigorous discrimination of a variety of structural and behavioural effects of interest to management research. Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) account for the highly interdependent nature of network data that is problematic for the predominant inferential statistical analysis used in management research. We illustrate the value of the approach with an application focused on executive recruitment by large UK firms, modelling migrations of managers among firms as a network of relationships. We find rigorous statistical support for the influences of industry origin in executive recruitment, particularly in relation to legal and accounting activities. The flexibility and sophisticated relational variables available in the models offer considerable analytical power of value to a wide range of management applications

The science of cathedral studies : exploring the demographic profile, motivational intentions, and perceived impact among those attending the Holly Bough service in Liverpool Cathedral

The Holly Bough service is a unique pre-Christmas event, combining musical excellence and theological depth, crafted by the founding dean of Liverpool Cathedral in the early twentieth century for the Fourth Sunday of Advent. Located within the developing science of cathedral studies, this paper analyses the demographic profile, motivational intention (drawing on religious orientation theory) and perceived impact on spiritual wellbeing (drawing on Fisher’s four dimensional model) among 564 participants who completed a detailed survey at the service held in 2019. The data demonstrated a mix of ages, a sense of Anglican commitment to this form of event-belonging by those who return year-on-year and invite friends to join them, and a perceived beneficial impact on all four dimensions of spiritual wellbeing

Dynamics of the magnetic flux trapped in fractal clusters of normal phase in a superconductor

The influence of geometry and morphology of superconducting structure on critical currents and magnetic flux trapping in percolative type-II superconductor is considered. The superconductor contains the clusters of a normal phase, which act as pinning centers. It is found that such clusters have significant fractal properties. The main features of these clusters are studied in detail: the cluster statistics is analyzed; the fractal dimension of their boundary is estimated; the distribution of critical currents is obtained, and its peculiarities are explored. It is examined thoroughly how the finite resolution capacity of the cluster geometrical size measurement affects the estimated value of fractal dimension. The effect of fractal properties of the normal phase clusters on the electric field arising from magnetic flux motion is investigated in the case of an exponential distribution of cluster areas. The voltage-current characteristics of superconductors in the resistive state for an arbitrary fractal dimension are obtained. It is revealed that the fractality of the boundaries of the normal phase clusters intensifies the magnetic flux trapping and thereby raises the critical current of a superconductor.Comment: revtex, 16 pages with 1 table and 5 figures; text and figures are improved; more detailed version with geometric probability analisys of the distribution of entry points into weak links over the perimeter of a normal phase clusters and one additional figure is published in Phys.Rev.B; alternative e-mail of author is [email protected]

Stellar Intensity Interferometry: Prospects for sub-milliarcsecond optical imaging

Using kilometric arrays of air Cherenkov telescopes, intensity interferometry may increase the spatial resolution in optical astronomy by an order of magnitude, enabling images of rapidly rotating stars with structures in their circumstellar disks and winds, or mapping out patterns of nonradial pulsations across stellar surfaces. Intensity interferometry (pioneered by Hanbury Brown and Twiss) connects telescopes only electronically, and is practically insensitive to atmospheric turbulence and optical imperfections, permitting observations over long baselines and through large airmasses, also at short optical wavelengths. The required large telescopes with very fast detectors are becoming available as arrays of air Cherenkov telescopes, distributed over a few square km. Digital signal handling enables very many baselines to be synthesized, while stars are tracked with electronic time delays, thus synthesizing an optical interferometer in software. Simulated observations indicate limiting magnitudes around m(v)=8, reaching resolutions ~30 microarcsec in the violet. The signal-to-noise ratio favors high-temperature sources and emission-line structures, and is independent of the optical passband, be it a single spectral line or the broad spectral continuum. Intensity interferometry provides the modulus (but not phase) of any spatial frequency component of the source image; for this reason image reconstruction requires phase retrieval techniques, feasible if sufficient coverage of the interferometric (u,v)-plane is available. Experiments are in progress; test telescopes have been erected, and trials in connecting large Cherenkov telescopes have been carried out. This paper reviews this interferometric method in view of the new possibilities offered by arrays of air Cherenkov telescopes, and outlines observational programs that should become realistic already in the rather near future.Comment: New Astronomy Reviews, in press; 101 pages, 11 figures, 185 reference