Fostering support for non-democratic rule? Controlled political liberalization and popular support for non-democratic regimes

When the Cold War ended, many non-democratic regimes across the globe embarked on a course of controlled political liberalization, hoping to stabilize their autocratic rule by mitigating popular demands for democratization and increasing regime legitimacy. But does this strategy actually work? This article uses multi-level analyses to examine how the degree of political liberalization affects regime support in non-democratic political systems and to ascertain which mechanisms underlie this effect. Drawing on aggregate measures of political liberalization and comparative survey data from four regional survey projects and 31 non-democracies, the study's results indicate that the degree of liberalization has no decisively positive effect on regime support, suggesting controlled political liberalization might not be an effective legitimizing strategy after all.Nach Ende des Kalten Krieges haben viele nicht-demokratische Regime weltweit einen Kurs der begrenzten politischen Öffnung eingeschlagen, um öffentliche Forderungen nach Demokratisierung zu entschärfen und auf diese Weise die Legitimität ihrer autokratischen Herrschaft zu erhöhen. Doch ist diese Strategie tatsächlich effektiv? Der Beitrag verwendet Mehrebenenanalysen, um zu untersuchen wie der Grad an politischer Öffnung die Regimerunterstützung in nicht-demokratischen politischen Systemen beeinflusst. Auf Basis von Aggregatmaßen zur politischen Öffnung und Individualdaten aus vier regionalen Umfrageprojekten und 31 Autokratien kann kein klarer positiver Effekt des Grads der politischen Öffnung auf die Regimeunterstützung nachgewiesen werden, was eine begrenzte politische Öffnung als wenig effektive Legitimationsstrategie erscheinen lässt

Level of development and democracy: Latin American exceptionalism, 1945-1996

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between modernization and democracy for one region of the world, Latin America from 1945 to 1996, on the basis of quantitative data. We make three arguments. First, we show that the level of development had a modest impact on the likelihood of democracy in Latin America for the 1945-1996 period. Democracy in Latin America has survived in the face of a low level of development, and it has faltered des pite moderately high per capita income. Second, we show that per capita income is a markedly worse predictor of democracy in Latin America than in the entire world or in other countries in the same income range. To account for this pattern we identify a distinctive, non-linear functional shape for this relationship in Latin America. Third, we address some potential explanations for this Latin American exceptionalism. No existing structural explanation suffices; this issue merits further exploration in future research.En este artículo analizamos la relación que existe entre el grado de modernización y la democracia en una región concreta del mundo, América Latina entre 1945 y 1996, apoyándonos en datos cuantitativos. Los argumentos que defendemos son tres. En primer lugar, mostramos cómo el nivel de desarrollo ha tenido una influencia relativamente débil en la probabilidad de que surgieran regímenes democráticos en América Latina durante el período 1945-1996. La democracia en América Latina ha sobrevivido en un contexto de escaso desarrollo pero también ha colapsado a pesar de unos niveles de renta per cápita relativamente altos. En segundo lugar, demostramos que, en América Latina, la renta per cápita permite predecir la democracia en menor medida que en el resto del mundo e incluso que en otros países con niveles de renta similares. Para entender las peculiaridades de esta relación en América Latina identificamos una función no lineal cuya forma se ajusta específicamente a esta región. En tercer lugar, consideramos una serie de posibles explicaciones a este excepcionalismo latinoamericano. Ninguna de las explicaciones estructurales ofrecidas hasta el momento resulta satisfactoria por lo que creemos que este tema merece ser estudiado en mayor profundidad en futuras investigaciones

World Bank Structural Adjustment, Water, and Sanitation: A Cross-National Analysis of Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

The authors conduct a cross-national analysis that seeks to accomplish two important goals. First, they test dependency theory\u27s hypotheses that World Bank structural adjustment adversely affects child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, they empirically evaluate the effect of access to clean water and basic sanitation on child mortality. In doing so, they use two-way fixed effects regression models to analyze child mortality using data on 31 nations and four time points (1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005). They find substantial support for their first goal relating to dependency theory that when a Sub-Saharan African nation is under a World Bank structural adjustment loan, then it tends to have higher levels of child mortality. They also find support for their second goal concerning the importance of including environmental variables in cross-national research on health. Specifically, they find that higher levels of access to an improved water source and an improved sanitation facility are associated with lower levels of child mortality within Sub-Saharan African nations. The authors conclude by discussing the findings, theoretical implications, methodological implications, policy suggestions, and possible directions for future research. © The Author(s) 2011