Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Internet-based psychoeducation for bipolar disorder: a qualitative analysis of feasibility, acceptability and impact

<p>Background: In a recent exploratory randomised trial we found that a novel, internet-based psychoeducation programme for bipolar disorder (Beating Bipolar) was relatively easy to deliver and had a modest effect on psychological quality of life. We sought to explore the experiences of participants with respect to feasibility, acceptability and impact of Beating Bipolar.</p> <p>Methods: Participants were invited to take part in a semi-structured interview. Thematic analysis techniques were employed; to explore and describe participants’ experiences, the data were analysed for emerging themes which were identified and coded.</p> <p>Results: The programme was feasible to deliver and acceptable to participants where they felt comfortable using a computer. It was found to impact upon insight into illness, health behaviour, personal routines and positive attitudes towards medication. Many participants regarded the programme as likely to be most beneficial for those recently diagnosed.</p> <p>Conclusions: An online psychoeducation package for bipolar disorder, such as Beating Bipolar, is feasible and acceptable to patients, has a positive impact on self-management behaviours and may be particularly suited to early intervention. Alternative (non-internet) formats should also be made available to patients.</p&gt

A Time Series Analysis of Air Pollution and Preterm Birth in Pennsylvania, 1997–2001

Preterm delivery can lead to serious infant health outcomes, including death and lifelong disability. Small increases in preterm delivery risk in relation to spatial gradients of air pollution have been reported, but previous studies may have controlled inadequately for individual factors. Using a time-series analysis, which eliminates potential confounding by individual risk factors that do not change over short periods of time, we investigated the effect of ambient outdoor particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM(10)) and sulfur dioxide on risk for preterm delivery. Daily counts of preterm births were obtained from birth records in four Pennsylvania counties from 1997 through 2001. We observed increased risk for preterm delivery with exposure to average PM(10) and SO(2) in the 6 weeks before birth [respectively, relative risk (RR) = 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.98–1.18 per 50 μg/m(3) increase; RR = 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00–1. 32 per 15 ppb increase], adjusting for long-term preterm delivery trends, co-pollutants, and offsetting by the number of gestations at risk. We also examined lags up to 7 days before the birth and found an acute effect of exposure to PM(10) 2 days and 5 days before birth (respectively, RR = 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00–1.21; RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.98–1.18) and SO(2) 3 days before birth (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99–1.15), adjusting for covariates, including temperature, dew point temperature, and day of the week. The results from this time-series analysis, which provides evidence of an increase in preterm birth risk with exposure to PM(10) and SO(2), are consistent with prior investigations of spatial contrasts

Anomalous material-dependent transport of focused, laser-driven proton beams.

Intense lasers can accelerate protons in sufficient numbers and energy that the resulting beam can heat materials to exotic warm (10 s of eV temperature) states. Here we show with experimental data that a laser-driven proton beam focused onto a target heated it in a localized spot with size strongly dependent upon material and as small as 35 μm radius. Simulations indicate that cold stopping power values cannot model the intense proton beam transport in solid targets well enough to match the large differences observed. In the experiment a 74 J, 670 fs laser drove a focusing proton beam that transported through different thicknesses of solid Mylar, Al, Cu or Au, eventually heating a rear, thin, Au witness layer. The XUV emission seen from the rear of the Au indicated a clear dependence of proton beam transport upon atomic number, Z, of the transport layer: a larger and brighter emission spot was measured after proton transport through the lower Z foils even with equal mass density for supposed equivalent proton stopping range. Beam transport dynamics pertaining to the observed heated spot were investigated numerically with a particle-in-cell (PIC) code. In simulations protons moving through an Al transport layer result in higher Au temperature responsible for higher Au radiant emittance compared to a Cu transport case. The inferred finding that proton stopping varies with temperature in different materials, considerably changing the beam heating profile, can guide applications seeking to controllably heat targets with intense proton beams

Solution structure of a repeated unit of the ABA-1 nematode polyprotein allergen of ascaris reveals a novel fold and two discrete lipid-binding sites

Parasitic nematode worms cause serious health problems in humans and other animals. They can induce allergic-type immune responses, which can be harmful but may at the same time protect against the infections. Allergens are proteins that trigger allergic reactions and these parasites produce a type that is confined to nematodes, the nematode polyprotein allergens (NPAs). These are synthesized as large precursor proteins comprising repeating units of similar amino acid sequence that are subsequently cleaved into multiple copies of the allergen protein. NPAs bind small lipids such as fatty acids and retinol (Vitamin A) and probably transport these sensitive and insoluble compounds between the tissues of the worms. Nematodes cannot synthesize these lipids, so NPAs may also be crucial for extracting nutrients from their hosts. They may also be involved in altering immune responses by controlling the lipids by which the immune and inflammatory cells communicate. We describe the molecular structure of one unit of an NPA, the well-known ABA-1 allergen of Ascaris and find its structure to be of a type not previously found for lipid-binding proteins, and we describe the unusual sites where lipids bind within this structur

Application of the speed-duration relationship to normalize the intensity of high-intensity interval training

The tolerable duration of continuous high-intensity exercise is determined by the hyperbolic Speed-tolerable duration (S-tLIM) relationship. However, application of the S-tLIM relationship to normalize the intensity of High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) has yet to be considered, with this the aim of present study. Subjects completed a ramp-incremental test, and series of 4 constant-speed tests to determine the S-tLIM relationship. A sub-group of subjects (n = 8) then repeated 4 min bouts of exercise at the speeds predicted to induce intolerance at 4 min (WR4), 6 min (WR6) and 8 min (WR8), interspersed with bouts of 4 min recovery, to the point of exercise intolerance (fixed WR HIIT) on different days, with the aim of establishing the work rate that could be sustained for 960 s (i.e. 4×4 min). A sub-group of subjects (n = 6) also completed 4 bouts of exercise interspersed with 4 min recovery, with each bout continued to the point of exercise intolerance (maximal HIIT) to determine the appropriate protocol for maximizing the amount of high-intensity work that can be completed during 4×4 min HIIT. For fixed WR HIIT tLIM of HIIT sessions was 399±81 s for WR4, 892±181 s for WR6 and 1517±346 s for WR8, with total exercise durations all significantly different from each other (P<0.050). For maximal HIIT, there was no difference in tLIM of each of the 4 bouts (Bout 1: 229±27 s; Bout 2: 262±37 s; Bout 3: 235±49 s; Bout 4: 235±53 s; P>0.050). However, there was significantly less high-intensity work completed during bouts 2 (153.5±40. 9 m), 3 (136.9±38.9 m), and 4 (136.7±39.3 m), compared with bout 1 (264.9±58.7 m; P>0.050). These data establish that WR6 provides the appropriate work rate to normalize the intensity of HIIT between subjects. Maximal HIIT provides a protocol which allows the relative contribution of the work rate profile to physiological adaptations to be considered during alternative intensity-matched HIIT protocols

Future orientation and planning in forestry: a comparison of forest managers' planning horizons in Germany and the Netherlands

Long range (or strategic) planning is an important tool for forest management to deal with the complex and unpredictable future. However, it is the ability to make meaningful predictions about the rapidly changing future that is questioned. What appears to be particularly neglected is the question of the length of time horizons and the limits (if any) to these horizons, despite being considered one of the most critical factors in strategic planning. As the future creation of values lies within individual responsibility, this research empirically explored the limits (if any) of individual foresters¿ time horizons. To draw comparisons between countries with different traditions in forest management planning, data were collected through telephone surveys of forest managers in the state/national forest services of the Netherlands and Germany. In order to minimize other cultural differences, the research in Germany concentrated on the federal state of Nordrhein-Westfalen, which has considerable similarities with the Netherlands, e.g. in topography, forest types and forest functions. The results show that, in practice, 15 years appears to be the most distant horizon that foresters can identify with. This is in sharp contrast to the time horizons spanning decades and even generations that are always said to exist in forestry. The ¿doctrine of the long run¿¿the faith in the capacity of foresters to overcome the barriers of the uncertain future and look ahead and plan for long-range goals¿which in many countries still underlies traditional forest management, can therefore be rejected

The transcriptional repressor protein NsrR senses nitric oxide directly via a [2Fe-2S] cluster

The regulatory protein NsrR, a member of the Rrf2 family of transcription repressors, is specifically dedicated to sensing nitric oxide (NO) in a variety of pathogenic and non-pathogenic bacteria. It has been proposed that NO directly modulates NsrR activity by interacting with a predicted [Fe-S] cluster in the NsrR protein, but no experimental evidence has been published to support this hypothesis. Here we report the purification of NsrR from the obligate aerobe Streptomyces coelicolor. We demonstrate using UV-visible, near UV CD and EPR spectroscopy that the protein contains an NO-sensitive [2Fe-2S] cluster when purified from E. coli. Upon exposure of NsrR to NO, the cluster is nitrosylated, which results in the loss of DNA binding activity as detected by bandshift assays. Removal of the [2Fe-2S] cluster to generate apo-NsrR also resulted in loss of DNA binding activity. This is the first demonstration that NsrR contains an NO-sensitive [2Fe-2S] cluster that is required for DNA binding activity

Microsecond Time-Resolved Absorption Spectroscopy Used to Study CO Compounds of Cytochrome bd from Escherichia coli

Cytochrome bd is a tri-heme (b558, b595, d) respiratory oxygen reductase that is found in many bacteria including pathogenic species. It couples the electron transfer from quinol to O2 with generation of an electrochemical proton gradient. We examined photolysis and subsequent recombination of CO with isolated cytochrome bd from Escherichia coli in oneelectron reduced (MV) and fully reduced (R) states by microsecond time-resolved absorption spectroscopy at 532-nm excitation. Both Soret and visible band regions were examined. CO photodissociation from MV enzyme possibly causes fast (t,1.5 ms) electron transfer from heme d to heme b595 in a small fraction of the protein, not reported earlier. Then the electron migrates to heme b558 (t,16 ms). It returns from the b-hemes to heme d with t,180 ms. Unlike cytochrome bd in the R state, in MV enzyme the apparent contribution of absorbance changes associated with CO dissociation from heme d is small, if any. Photodissociation of CO from heme d in MV enzyme is suggested to be accompanied by the binding of an internal ligand (L) at the opposite side of the heme. CO recombines with heme d (t,16 ms) yielding a transient hexacoordinate state (CO-Fe2+ -L). Then the ligand slowly (t,30 ms) dissociates from heme d. Recombination of CO with a reduced heme b in a fraction of the MV sample may also contribute to the 30-ms phase. In R enzyme, CO recombines to heme d (t,20 ms), some heme b558 (t,0.2–3 ms), and finally migrates from heme d to heme b595 (t,24 ms) in ,5% of the enzyme population. Data are consistent with the recent nanosecond study of Rappaport et al. conducted on the membranes at 640-nm excitation but limited to the Soret band. The additional phases were revealed due to differences in excitation and other experimental conditions