Income Tax Avoidance and Evasion: A Narrow Bracketing Approach

We characterize optimal individual tax evasion and avoidance when taxpayers ìnarrow bracketî the joint avoidance/evasion decision by exhausting all gainful methods for legal avoidance before choosing whether or not also to evade illegally. We Önd that (i) evasion is an increasing function of the audit probability when the latter is low enough, yet tax avoidance is always decreasing in the probability of audit; (ii) an analogous Önding to the so-called Yitzhaki puzzle for evasion also holds for tax avoidance ñan increase in the tax rate decreases the level of avoided income and the level of avoided tax; and (iii) that, holding constant the expected return to evasion, it is not always the case that the combined loss of reported income due to avoidance and evasion can be stemmed by increasing the Öne rate and decreasing the audit probability

The last forests on Antarctica: Reconstructing flora and temperature from the Neogene Sirius Group, Transantarctic Mountains

Fossil-bearing deposits in the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica indicate that, despite the cold nature of the continent’s climate, a tundra ecosystem grew during periods of ice sheet retreat in the mid to late Neogene (17–2.5 Ma), 480 km from the South Pole. To date, palaeotemperature reconstruction has been based only on biological ranges, thereby calling for a geochemical approach to understanding continental climate and environment. There is contradictory evidence in the fossil record as to whether this flora was mixed angiosperm-conifer vegetation, or whether by this point conifers had disappeared from the continent. In order to address these questions, we have analysed, for the first time in sediments of this age, plant and bacterial biomarkers in terrestrial sediments from the Transantarctic Mountains to reconstruct past temperature and vegetation during a period of East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat. From tetraether lipids (MBT’/CBT palaeothermometer), we conclude that the mean continental summer temperature was ca. 5 °C, in agreement with previous reconstructions. This was warm enough to have allowed woody vegetation to survive and reproduce even during the austral winter. Biomarkers from vascular plants indicate a low diversity and spatially variable flora consisting of higher plants, moss and algal mats growing in microenvironments in a glacial outwash system. Abietane-type compounds were abundant in some samples, indicating that conifers, most likely Podocarpaceae, grew on the Antarctic continent well into the Neogene. This is supported by the palynological record, but not the macrofossil record for the continent, and has implications for the evolution of vegetation on Antarctica

Trophic and feeding ecology of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) using bulk stable isotope analysis

IntroductionDespite their size, relatively passive behavior, and commercial significance, knowledge of the behavioral ecology of whale sharks remains limited. The difficulty of tracking individual animals at sea encourages the use of retrospective biochemical approaches such as stable isotope analysis.MethodsWhale sharks at Mafia Island in Tanzania form a comparatively small and resident aggregation that has been monitored for several successive years, providing a rare opportunity to study biochemical changes in individuals over time. In this study, 53% of the identified individuals were sampled at the time of collection over a multi-year period. Stable isotope analysis was performed on these samples to investigate their feeding ecology.ResultsStable isotope data suggest that whale sharks at Mafia Island predominantly feed within the local food web at a trophic level consistent with current understanding of the species' general feeding ecology. These data also reveal a range of individual feeding strategies within the local aggregation, with some sex and size-related differences. However, the isotopic niche area at the population level was relatively constrained.DiscussionWe call for additional research and emphasize the importance of a multi-faceted approach incorporating diverse biochemical and tracking techniques to more accurately understand the long-term feeding ecology of this endangered and charismatic mega-planktivore

Island ecosystem responses to the Kuwae eruption and precipitation change over the last 1600 years, Efate, Vanuatu

Introduction: Islands of the Southwest Pacific are exposed to geologic and climate-related disturbances that occur on a range of timescales and which probably affect, to varying degrees, their terrestrial ecosystems. Over the past ∼1100 years we know of two major events in the region: the Kuwae eruption which is thought to have occurred ∼500 cal. years BP and a shift to drier conditions which began ∼1100 cal. years BP.Methods: We investigated terrestrial and lacustrine ecosystem responses to these events and also to a changing fire regime, likely human-caused, using a multi-proxy (C/N, charcoal, chironomids, pollen, and tephra) record from Lake Emaotul, Efate, Vanuatu.Results: Tephra from the Kuwae eruption was found across a 6 cm layer which our age-depth model suggests was deposited 650–510 cal. years BP (95% confidence). Forest and chironomid community turnover increased during the wet-dry shift 1100–1000 cal. years BP; subsequently, chironomid turnover rates decreased again within <135 years and vegetation had partially (but not fully) recovered after ∼80 years. Following Kuwae volcanic tephra deposition, vegetation turnover increased again, reflecting a reduction in small trees and shrubs and an increase in grasses. Subsequently, the forest vegetation did not regain its previous composition, whereas chironomid community composition remained fairly stable before and after tephra deposition. Within the last ∼90 years, enhanced local burning drove another increase in vegetation turnover.Discussion: Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Efate are sensitive to changes in hydroclimate, volcanism, and anthropogenic fires, although to different degrees; while recent human impacts are often obvious, volcanic eruptions and climatic shifts have also structured Pacific-island ecosystems and will continue to do so

A Perspective on Economic Impact

The institutions responsible for water resources management in the United States have originated as political responses to major social issues. Each agency institutionalized a procedure for structuring and comparing alternatives in the formulation of its total program. Each agency originally sought to promote effective resolution of its social issue (flood control, development of arid lands, soil erosion, etc.), but more recent efforts have sought better coordination among agency practices through a common procedure largely derived from economic theory. Any procedure, however, varies in application with the interpretation and judgment of individual planners. Today, public pressures have brought political directives requiring consideration of the local and nationwide impacts of projects that occur through direct, indirect, and secondary means in the spheres of economic, social and environmental effects. The body of the study reviews fourteen specific impact issues with the goals of providing planners a methodology for dealing with each one and of providing the theoretically inclined a basis for improving each methodology. The issues are reservoir effects on local property values, reservoir effects on the economy of the local county, changes in income and employment patterns around large reservoirs, patterns of land use change around reservoirs, reservoir effects on revenues and expenditures of local government, reservoir recreation benefits, application of marginal economic analysis to reservoir recreation planning, economic value of natural areas for recreational hunting, for stream fishing, the personal value of real property to its owner, reservoir project caused income redistribution, achievement of more flexible procedures for reservoir operation in order to match changes in demand for project output with time, estimation of flood damages by the time pattern in which they occur, and operation of reservoir systems for flood control. Each study ls presented in detail in a referenced report, and this report discusses the significance of the findings of the studies, individually and as a group

A large West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains early Neogene sea-level amplitude

Early to Middle Miocene sea-level oscillations of approximately 40-60 m estimated from far-field records1-3 are interpreted to reflect the loss of virtually all East Antarctic ice during peak warmth2. This contrasts with ice-sheet model experiments suggesting most terrestrial ice in East Antarctica was retained even during the warmest intervals of the Middle Miocene4,5. Data and model outputs can be reconciled if a large West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) existed and expanded across most of the outer continental shelf during the Early Miocene, accounting for maximum ice-sheet volumes. Here we provide the earliest geological evidence proving large WAIS expansions occurred during the Early Miocene (~17.72-17.40 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic data show glacimarine sediments recovered at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the central Ross Sea derive from West Antarctica, requiring the presence of a WAIS covering most of the Ross Sea continental shelf. Seismic, lithological and palynological data reveal the intermittent proximity of grounded ice to Site U1521. The erosion rate calculated from this sediment package greatly exceeds the long-term mean, implying rapid erosion of West Antarctica. This interval therefore captures a key step in the genesis of a marine-based WAIS and a tipping point in Antarctic ice-sheet evolution

Improving sightings-derived residency estimation for whale shark aggregations: A novel metric applied to a global data set

The world’s largest extant fish, the whale shark Rhincodon typus, is one of the most-studied species of sharks globally. The discovery of predictable aggregation sites where these animals gather seasonally or are sighted year-round – most of which are coastal and juvenile-dominated – has allowed for a rapid expansion of research on this species. The most common method for studying whale sharks at these sites is photographic identification (photo-ID). This technique allows for long-term individual-based data to be collected which can, in turn, be used to evaluate population structure, build population models, identify long-distance movements, and assess philopatry and other population dynamics. Lagged identification rate (LIR) models have fewer underlying assumptions than more traditional capture mark recapture approaches, making them more broadly applicable to marine taxa, especially far-ranging megafauna species like whale sharks. However, the increased flexibility comes at a cost. Parameter estimations based on LIR can be difficult to interpret and may not be comparable between areas with different sampling regimes. Using a unique data-set from the Philippines with ~8 years of nearly continuous survey effort, we were able to derive a metric for converting LIR residency estimates into more intuitive days-per-year units. We applied this metric to 25 different sites allowing for the first quantitatively-meaningful comparison of sightings-derived residence among the world’s whale shark aggregations. We validated these results against the only three published acoustic residence metrics (falling within the ranges established by these earlier works in all cases). The results were then used to understand residency behaviours exhibited by the sharks at each site. The adjusted residency metric is an improvement to LIR-based population modelling, already one of the most widely used tools for describing whale shark aggregations. The standardised methods presented here can serve as a valuable tool for assessing residency patterns of whale sharks, which is crucial for tailored conservation action, and can cautiously be tested in other taxa.</jats:p

Identifying priority sites for whale shark ship collision management globally

The expansion of the world's merchant fleet poses a great threat to the ocean's biodiversity. Collisions between ships and marine megafauna can have population-level consequences for vulnerable species. The Endangered whale shark (Rhincodon typus) shares a circumglobal distribution with this expanding fleet and tracking of movement pathways has shown that large vessel collisions pose a major threat to the species. However, it is not yet known whether they are also at risk within aggregation sites, where up to 400 individuals can gather to feed on seasonal bursts of planktonic productivity. These "constellation" sites are of significant ecological, socio-economic and cultural value. Here, through expert elicitation, we gathered information from most known constellation sites for this species across the world (&gt;50 constellations and &gt;13,000 individual whale sharks). We defined the spatial boundaries of these sites and their overlap with shipping traffic. Sites were then ranked based on relative levels of potential collision danger posed to whale sharks in the area. Our results showed that researchers and resource managers may underestimate the threat posed by large ship collisions due to a lack of direct evidence, such as injuries or witness accounts, which are available for other, sub-lethal threat categories. We found that constellations in the Arabian Sea and adjacent waters, the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of California, and Southeast and East Asia, had the greatest level of collision threat. We also identified 39 sites where peaks in shipping activity coincided with peak seasonal occurrences of whale sharks, sometimes across several months. Simulated collision mitigation options estimated potentially minimal impact to industry, as most whale shark core habitat areas were small. Given the threat posed by vessel collisions, a coordinated, multi-national approach to mitigation is needed within priority whale shark habitats to ensure collision protection for the species

A 15‐Year Time Series Shows Major Declines in Whale Sharks in Southern Mozambique

A 15‐year dataset (2005–2019) of 706 photo‐identified whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) off Praia do Tofo in Mozambique allowed us to assess the local abundance trend, and size‐ and sex‐specific sighting and abundance trends, using both generalised additive models and capture–mark–recapture models. Overall sightings per day were partially explained by temporal (year, day of year) and biophysical (sea surface temperature, time from high tide, moon illumination, Indian Ocean dipole index) predictors. There were no differences in environmental drivers between females, which comprised 26% of the study population, and males (74%). Similarly, demographic parameters (recapture probability, apparent survival, and probability of entry into the population) estimated in multi‐state open robust design capture–mark–recapture models showed no differences between sexes. Generalised additive models and multi‐state open robust design models showed a steep decline in whale shark sightings (−87%) and abundance (−89%), respectively. Female abundance was lower and decreased more sharply (−92%) than that of males (−81%), while the abundance of larger ≥ 7‐m individuals declined more (−99%) than medium‐sized (5–6.9 m, −87%) and small (≤ 5 m, −68%) sharks. This pronounced decline in one of the largest global aggregations of whale sharks highlights the pressing need for ongoing work to understand movement drivers, mitigate threats and protect this Endangered species

Holocene dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and possible links to CO2 outgassing

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean