Spurious trend switching phenomena in financial markets

The observation of power laws in the time to extrema of volatility, volume and intertrade times, from milliseconds to years, are shown to result straightforwardly from the selection of biased statistical subsets of realizations in otherwise featureless processes such as random walks. The bias stems from the selection of price peaks that imposes a condition on the statistics of price change and of trade volumes that skew their distributions. For the intertrade times, the extrema and power laws results from the format of transaction data

Semiholography for heavy ion collisions

The formation of QGP in heavy ion collisions gives us a great opportunity for learning about nonperturbative dynamics of QCD. Semiholography provides a new consistent framework to combine perturbative and non-perturbative effects in a coherent way and can be applied to obtain an effective description for heavy ion collisions. In particular, it allows us to include nonperturbative effects in existing glasma effective theory and QCD kinetic theory for the weakly coupled saturated degrees of freedom liberated by the collisions in the initial stages in a consistent manner. We argue why the full framework should be able to confront experiments with only a few phenomenological parameters and present feasibility tests for the necessary numerical computations. Furthermore, we discuss that semiholography leads to a new description of collective flow in the form of a generalised non-Newtonian fluid. We discuss some open questions which we hope to answer in the near future.Comment: 12 pages; 3 figures; Proceedings of Confinement XII @ Thessaloniki, Greece -- August 28 to September 4, 201

Chiral transition in dense, magnetized matter

In the presence of a chemical potential, the effect of a magnetic field on chiral symmetry breaking goes beyond the well-known magnetic catalysis. Due to a subtle interplay with the chemical potential, the magnetic field may work not only in favor but also against the chirally broken phase. At sufficiently large coupling, the magnetic field favors the broken phase only for field strengths beyond any conceivable value in nature. Therefore, in the interior of magnetars, a possible transition from chirally broken hadronic matter to chirally symmetric quark matter might occur at smaller densities than previously thought.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, contribution to proceedings of "QCD@Work 2012", Lecce, Ital

Using aircraft location data to estimate current economic activity

Aviation is a key sector of the economy, contributing at least 3% to gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK and the US. Currently, airline performance statistics are published with a three month delay. However, aircraft now broadcast their location in real-time using the Automated Dependent Surveillance Broadcast system (ADS-B). In this paper, we analyse a global dataset of flights since July 2016. We first show that it is possible to accurately estimate airline flight volumes using ADS-B data, which is available immediately. Next, we demonstrate that real-time knowledge of flight volumes can be a leading indicator for aviation’s direct contribution to GDP in both the UK and the US. Using ADS-B data could therefore help move us towards real-time estimates of GDP, which would equip policymakers with the information to respond to shocks more quickly

Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior

Das Ereignis der Zukunft : Prinzipien der Subjektkonstitution in den Filmen Ghostrider, Knowing und Next mit Nicolas Cage

Die Filme Ghostrider, Knowing und Next entfalten auf jeweils unterschiedliche Art und Weise die Problematik, wie vor einer nicht nur unbekannten, sondern auch sehr ernsthaft bedrohlichen Zukunft Entscheidungen zu treffen sind, die die sie angehenden moralischen Subjekte in ihren Handlungsoptionen allererst konstituieren. Die Formung der dargestellten Entscheidungsszenarien wäre nicht denkbar ohne unterschiedliche Zeitlichkeitsmodelle, deren Bedeutung in einer jedes moralische Subjekt betreffenden Möglichkeit liegt, sich gegen die Gegenwart zu wenden. Mögen die Filme als einzelne trivial oder allenfalls unterhaltsam erscheinen, so lässt sich in ihrer Konstellation zeigen, inwiefern jedes Handeln sich nicht so sehr für die Zukunft, sondern an der Gegenwart entscheidet

Time evolution of a toy semiholographic glasma

We extend our previous study of a toy model for coupling classical Yang-Mills equations for describing overoccupied gluons at the saturation scale with a strongly coupled infrared sector modeled by AdS/CFT. Including propagating modes in the bulk we find that the Yang-Mills sector loses its initial energy to a growing black hole in the gravity dual such that there is a conserved energy-momentum tensor for the total system while entropy grows monotonically. This involves a numerical AdS simulation with a backreacted boundary source far from equilibrium.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, v2: minor changes in section 3 and acknowledgement

Magnetic catalysis in nuclear matter

A strong magnetic field enhances the chiral condensate at low temperatures. This so-called magnetic catalysis thus seeks to increase the vacuum mass of nucleons. We employ two relativistic field-theoretical models for nuclear matter, the Walecka model and an extended linear sigma model, to discuss the resulting effect on the transition between vacuum and nuclear matter at zero temperature. In both models we find that the creation of nuclear matter in a sufficiently strong magnetic field becomes energetically more costly due to the heaviness of magnetized nucleons, even though it is also found that nuclear matter is more strongly bound in a magnetic field. Our results are potentially important for dense nuclear matter in compact stars, especially since previous studies in the astrophysical context have always ignored the contribution of the magnetized Dirac sea and thus the effect of magnetic catalysis.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures, v3: version to appear in Phys. Rev.