Cyclical movements of the labor input and its implicit real wage

An examination of whether a different specification for labor input and real wages leads to a reconsideration of labor force volatility during business cycles.Wages

Incorporating Side Information in Probabilistic Matrix Factorization with Gaussian Processes

Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associated with pairwise relationships, finding use in collaborative filtering, computational biology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there is additional information that can assist in prediction. For example, when modeling movie ratings, we might know when the rating occurred, where the user lives, or what actors appear in the movie. It is difficult, however, to incorporate this side information into the PMF model. We propose a framework for incorporating side information by coupling together multiple PMF problems via Gaussian process priors. We replace scalar latent features with functions that vary over the space of side information. The GP priors on these functions require them to vary smoothly and share information. We successfully use this new method to predict the scores of professional basketball games, where side information about the venue and date of the game are relevant for the outcome.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Submitted to UAI 201

High resistance and raised modulus carbon fibers

The manufacturing process, test procedures and application of high strength, high modulus carbon fibers are described in this patent document

The computational experiment: an econometric tool

A specification of the steps in designing a computational experiment to address a well-posed quantitative question, emphasizing that the computational experiment is an econometric tool used in the task of deriving the quantitative implications of theory.Econometrics ; Econometric models

OK, you have collected a large amount of big data. Now what?

Instead of sitting on data, firms can use it to gain a competitive advantage, argues Michael E. Prescot

Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth

This paper argues that the reporting of facts in light of theory fosters the development of theory. Dynamic neoclassical macro theory guided the selection of facts to report. The hope is that these facts will foster the further development of this theory. A finding is that the price level is countercyclical in the post-Korean War period. This finding debunks the myths that the price level is procyclical, with the postwar period being no exception.Business cycles

Exploring the Cognitive Nature of Boards of Directors and Its Implication for Board Effectiveness

In this paper we propose a theoretical framework that emphasizes the development of a shared mental model (SMM) of a board of directors and its impact on board effectiveness and suggest that the accuracy and scope of the SMM in a board will moderate the relationship between a board’s SMM and board effectiveness. Also, we examine the impact of task and relationship conflict on the development of a SMM. Finally, we examine three board attributes (board size, CEO duality, and the proportion of outside directors on a board) as antecedents to the development of conflict among board members.Boards of directors, corporate governance, shared mental models

Real Returns on Government Debt: A General Equilibrium Quantitative Exploration

We extend and apply computable general equilibrium methods to the study of economies with both aggregate uncertainty and uninsured household-specific uncertainty. In our economies the government issues two types of assets: a small denomination, non-interest bearing asset, which we call currency, and a large denomination, interest bearing asset, which we call T-bills. We find that a real interest rate behavior similar to that observed in the U.S. can be sustained as equilibrium behavior in our class of economies. We also find that policy induced real interest rate changes that are perceived as being permanent have significant real effects and that these effects take a few years to be fully realized.Publicad