Modelling the cost-effectiveness of combination therapy for early, rapidly progressing rheumatoid arthritis by simulating the reversible and irreversible effects of the disease

Objective. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adalimumab plus methotrexate (MTX) versus MTX monotherapy in early, aggressive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) when explicitly modelling short-term (reversible) and long-term (irreversible, ie, joint damage) disease activity and physical function. Methods. A microsimulation model was developed to unify, in a single cost-effectiveness model, measures of reversible and irreversible disease activity and physical function based on data from the PREMIER trial. Short term, reversible disease activity was modelled using DAS28 variables, including swollen joint counts, tender joint counts, C reactive protein concentration and pain. The DAS28 variables were then used in a logistic regression to predict short-term American College of Rheumatology (ACR) responses, which informed treatment continuation and switches. Long term, irreversible, radiographically documented joint damage was modelled using modified Total Sharp Score (mTSS). The model then linked both short-term disease activity and mTSS to the Health Assessment Questionnaire score, which was used to calculate direct and indirect costs, and quality adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results. When both reversible and irreversible effects of therapy were included, combination therapy was estimated to produce 6-month 50% ACR responses in 75% of patients versus 54% in MTX monotherapy. Compared to MTX monotherapy, combination therapy resulted in 2.68 and 3.04 discounted life years and QALYs gained, respectively. Combination therapy also resulted in a net increase in direct costs of £106 207 for a resulting incremental cost/QALY gain of £32 425. When indirect costs were included in the analysis, the ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) decreased to £27 238. Disregarding irreversible effects increased the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to £78 809 (when only direct costs were included). Conclusions. Starting with adalimumab plus MTX combination therapy in early, aggressive RA is cost-effective when irreversible damage is adequately considered

Corrigendum: A systematic review and economic evaluation of bisphosphonates for the prevention of fragility fractures

Abstract Background Fragility fractures are fractures that result from mechanical forces that would not ordinarily result in fracture. Objectives To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and safety of bisphosphonates [alendronic acid (Fosamax® and Fosamax® Once Weekly, Merck Sharp & Dohme Ltd), risedronic acid (Actonel® and Actonel Once a Week®, Warner Chilcott UK Ltd), ibandronic acid (Bonviva®, Roche Products Ltd) and zoledronic acid (Aclasta®, Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd)] for the prevention of fragility fracture and to assess their cost-effectiveness at varying levels of fracture risk. Data sources For the clinical effectiveness review, six electronic databases and two trial registries were searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science and BIOSIS Previews, Clinicaltrials.gov and World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Searches were limited by date from 2008 until September 2014. Review methods A systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. Discrete event simulation was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for each bisphosphonate treatment strategy and a strategy of no treatment for a simulated cohort of patients with heterogeneous characteristics. The model was populated with effectiveness evidence from the systematic review and NMA. All other parameters were estimated from published sources. A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Fracture risk was estimated from patient characteristics using the QFracture® (QFracture-2012 open source revision 38, Clinrisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and FRAX® (web version 3.9, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK) tools. The relationship between fracture risk and incremental net benefit (INB) was estimated using non-parametric regression. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results Forty-six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the clinical effectiveness systematic review, with 27 RCTs providing data for the fracture NMA and 35 RCTs providing data for the femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) NMA. All treatments had beneficial effects on fractures versus placebo, with hazard ratios varying from 0.41 to 0.92 depending on treatment and fracture type. The effects on vertebral fractures and percentage change in BMD were statistically significant for all treatments. There was no evidence of a difference in effect on fractures between bisphosphonates. A statistically significant difference in the incidence of influenza-like symptoms was identified from the RCTs for zoledronic acid compared with placebo. Reviews of observational studies suggest that upper gastrointestinal symptoms are frequently reported in the first month of oral bisphosphonate treatment, but pooled analyses of placebo-controlled trials found no statistically significant difference. A strategy of no treatment was estimated to have the maximum INB for patients with a 10-year QFracture risk under 1.5%, whereas oral bisphosphonates provided maximum INB at higher levels of risk. However, the PSA suggested that there is considerable uncertainty regarding whether or not no treatment is the optimal strategy until the QFracture score is around 5.5%. In the model using FRAX, the mean INBs were positive for all oral bisphosphonate treatments across all risk categories. Intravenous bisphosphonates were estimated to have lower INBs than oral bisphosphonates across all levels of fracture risk when estimated using either QFracture or FRAX. Limitations We assumed that all treatment strategies are viable alternatives across the whole population. Conclusions Bisphosphonates are effective in preventing fragility fractures. However, the benefit-to-risk ratio in the lowest-risk patients may be debatable given the low absolute QALY gains and the potential for adverse events. We plan to extend the analysis to include non-bisphosphonate therapies. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013006883. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

The effects of upper and lower limb exercise on the microvascular reactivity in limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis patients

Background: Aerobic exercise in general and high intensity interval training (HIIT) specifically is known to improve vascular function in a range of clinical conditions. HIIT in particular has demonstrated improvements in clinical outcomes, in conditions that have a strong macroangiopathic component. Nevertheless, the effect of HIIT on microcirculation in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients is yet to be investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to compare the effects of two HIIT protocols (cycle and arm cranking) on the microcirculation of the digital area in SSc patients. Methods: Thirty four limited cutaneous SSc patients (65.3 ± 11.6 years old) were randomly allocated in three groups (cycling, arm cranking and control group). The exercise groups underwent a twelve-week exercise program twice per week. All patients performed the baseline and post-exercise intervention measurements where physical fitness, functional ability, transcutaneous oxygen tension (ΔtcpO2), body composition and quality of life were assessed. Endothelial-dependent as well as-independent vasodilation were assessed in the middle and index fingers using LDF and incremental doses of acetylcholine (ACh) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP). Cutaneous flux data were expressed as cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC). Results: Peak oxygen uptake increased in both exercise groups (p<0.01, d=1.36). ΔtcpO2 demonstrated an increase in the arm cranking group only, with a large effect, but not found statistically significant,(p=0.59, d=0.93). Endothelial-dependent vasodilation improvement was greater in the arm cranking (p<0.05, d=1.07) in comparison to other groups. Both exercise groups improved life satisfaction (p<0.001) as well as reduced discomfort and pain due to Raynaud's phenomenon (p<0.05). Arm cranking seems to be the preferred mode of exercise for study participants as compared to cycling (p<0.05). No changes were observed in the body composition or the functional ability in both exercise groups. Conclusion: Our results suggest that arm cranking has the potential to improve the microvascular endothelial function in SSc patients. Also notably, our recommended training dose (e.g., a 12-week HIIT program, twice per week), appeared to be sufficient and tolerable for this population. Future research should focus on exploring the feasibility of a combined exercise such as aerobic and resistance training by assessing individual's experience and the quality of life in SSc patients. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT number): NCT03058887, February 23, 2017, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03058887?term=NCT03058887&rank=1 Key words: High intensity interval training, vascular function, quality of lif

Explaining variation in the uptake of HPV vaccination in England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In England, two national programmes of HPV vaccination for girls have been instituted, a routine programme for 12- and 13-year-olds and a catch-up programme for 17- and 18-year-olds. Uptake rates across the country have been far from uniform, and this research sought to identify factors explaining the variation in uptake by locality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An association between uptake, deprivation and ethnic background had been established in pilot research. The present analysis was conducted at an aggregate, Primary Care Trust (PCT), level for the first year of the programmes. Published measures of HPV vaccination uptake, material deprivation, ethnic composition of PCT populations, primary care quality, and uptake of cervical screening and of other childhood immunisations were collated. Strong evidence of collinearity amongst the explanatory variables required a factor analysis to be undertaken. This provided four independent factors, used thereafter in regression models to explain uptake by PCT.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The factor analysis revealed that ethnic composition was associated with attitudes towards cervical screening and other childhood vaccinations, whilst material deprivation and quality of primary care were orthogonal. Ethnic composition, early childhood vaccination, cervical screening and primary care quality were found to be influential in predicting uptake in both the routine and the catch-up cohorts, although with a lower degree of confidence in the case of the last two independent variables. Lower primary care quality was significant in explaining a greater fall in vaccination uptake between the first two doses in the catch-up cohort. Greater deprivation was a significant explanatory factor for both uptake and the fall in uptake between doses for the catch-up cohort but not for uptake in the routine cohort.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results for uptake of the first year of the national programme using aggregate data corroborate findings from intentions surveys and pilot studies. Deprivation, the ethnic composition of the population, the effectiveness of primary care and the acceptability of childhood vaccinations are salient factors in explaining local HPV vaccine uptake in England.</p

What is the risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in patients with ulcerative colitis or Crohn’s Disease treated with vedolizumab?

Background: Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy is a serious condition linked to certain diseases and immunosuppressant therapies, including the α4 integrin antagonist natalizumab. No cases have been reported to date with vedolizumab, a selective antagonist of the α4β7 integrin expressed on gut-homing lymphocytes. This analysis aimed to describe the current and future expected occurrence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy with vedolizumab use, were the risk the same as in other populations in which this disease has been studied. Methods: The expected number of vedolizumab-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy cases was estimated up to May 19, 2016 and modelled up to 2034. These estimates were based on the cumulative exposure to the drug, assuming an equivalent risk to that of patients treated with natalizumab or those from other reference populations where progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy has been examined. Future cases were modelled based on similar risks and projected sales. Results: The cumulative vedolizumab exposure was estimated at 54,619 patient-years, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.0–6.75 cases per 100,000 patient-years. An estimated 30.2 (95% confidence interval 19.4–40.9) cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy would have occurred if vedolizumab had the same risk as that of natalizumab. There would be a 50% chance of the first case occurring by 2018, assuming an equivalent risk to the general population. Conclusions: These analyses indicate the risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy with vedolizumab is small, and unlikely to be above 6.75 cases per 100,000 patient-years

Off-Label Biologic Regimens in Psoriasis: A Systematic Review of Efficacy and Safety of Dose Escalation, Reduction, and Interrupted Biologic Therapy

Objectives: While off-label dosing of biologic treatments may be necessary in selected psoriasis patients, no systematic review exists to date that synthesizes the efficacy and safety of these off-label dosing regimens. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate efficacy and safety of off-label dosing regimens (dose escalation, dose reduction, and interrupted treatment) with etanercept, adalimumab, infliximab, ustekinumab, and alefacept for psoriasis treatment

Update of the Scientific Opinion on opium alkaloids in poppy seeds

The CONTAM Panel wishes to thank the hearing experts: Pavel Cihlar, Daniel Doerge and Vaclav Lohr for the support provided to this scientific output. The CONTAM Panel acknowledges all European competent institutions and other stakeholders that provided occurrence data on opium alkaloids in food, and supported the data collection for the Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database. Adopted: 22 March 2018 Reproduction of the images listed below is prohibited and permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder:Figure A.1 in Appendix A: © Elsevier.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Nonmedical prescription psychiatric drug use and the darknet: A cryptomarket analysis

Nonmedical prescription psychiatric drug use (NMPDU) is an increasing global health problem, with recent concern focusing on darknet cryptomarkets as sources of procurement. There is a shortage of evidence regarding comparative worldwide NMPDU trends, due in part to data collection difficulties. This problem is particularly marked for non-opioid drugs, particularly those psychiatric drugs which act on the central nervous system (CNS) and have high misuse potential and are associated with high levels of dependency and fatal overdose. This paper therefore has two goals: 1) to report on the kinds of psychiatric prescription drugs available on cryptomarkets, and 2) to use this data to uncover temporal and geographical trends in sales of these products, potentially informing policy regarding NMPDU more generally. Method Digital trace data collected from 31 cryptomarkets in operation between September 2013 and July 2016 was analysed by country of origin descriptively and for trends in the sales for 7 psychiatric drug groupings, based on their main indication or intended use in psychiatric practice. Results Sedatives (such as diazepam and alprazolam) and CNS stimulants (mainly Adderall, modafinil and methylphenidate) had the greatest share of sales, but usage and trends varied by location. The UK has high and rising levels of sedative sales, whilst the USA has the greatest stimulant sales and increasing sedative rates. Sales of drugs used in the treatment of opioid dependency are also substantial in the USA. The picture is less clear in mainland Europe with high sales levels reported in unexpected Central and Northern European countries. There is evidence of a move towards the more potent sedative alprazolam – already implicated as a source of problematic NMPDU in the USA – in Australia and the UK. Sales of drugs such as antidepressants, antipsychotics, mood stabilisers and antidementia drugs – all drugs with limited abuse potential – were negligible, indicating minimal levels of online cryptomarket procurement for self-medicating mental health problems. Conclusion Predominantly, psychiatric drugs with potent sedative, stimulant or euphoriant effects are sold on cryptomarkets and this varies by country. With some caveats regarding the limitations of cryptomarket digital trace data taken into account, the study of trends of these products sold online over time may offer a novel and increasingly important window onto wider drug purchasing habits