Cohort Study of the Impact of High-Dose Opioid Analgesics on Overdose Mortality

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies examining opioid dose and overdose risk provide limited granularity by milligram strength and instead rely on thresholds. We quantify dose-dependent overdose mortality over a large spectrum of clinically common doses. We also examine the contributions of benzodiazepines and extended release opioid formulations to mortality. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort with one year follow-up. SETTING: One year in one state (NC) using a controlled substances prescription monitoring program, with name-linked mortality data. SUBJECTS: Residential population of North Carolina (n = 9,560,234), with 2,182,374 opioid analgesic patients. METHODS: Exposure was dispensed prescriptions of solid oral and transdermal opioid analgesics; person-years calculated using intent-to-treat principles. Outcome was overdose deaths involving opioid analgesics in a primary or additive role. Poisson models were created, implemented using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Opioid analgesics were dispensed to 22.8% of residents. Among licensed clinicians, 89.6% prescribed opioid analgesics, and 40.0% prescribed ER formulations. There were 629 overdose deaths, half of which had an opioid analgesic prescription active on the day of death. Of 2,182,374 patients prescribed opioids, 478 overdose deaths were reported (0.022% per year). Mortality rates increased gradually across the range of average daily milligrams of morphine equivalents. 80.0% of opioid analgesic patients also received benzodiazepines. Rates of overdose death among those co-dispensed benzodiazepines and opioid analgesics were ten times higher (7.0 per 10,000 person-years, 95 percent CI: 6.3, 7.8) than opioid analgesics alone (0.7 per 10,000 person years, 95 percent CI: 0.6, 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Dose-dependent opioid overdose risk among patients increased gradually and did not show evidence of a distinct risk threshold. There is urgent need for guidance about combined classes of medicines to facilitate a better balance between pain relief and overdose risk

Measuring and Mapping Alcohol Outlet Environment Density, Clusters, and Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Durham, North Carolina, 2017

Excessive alcohol consumption is responsible for more than 95,000 deaths in the US each year. Policies limiting high densities of alcohol outlets (places where alcohol can be sold or consumed) can curb excessive alcohol consumption. Denser alcohol environments are associated with multiple chronic disease pathways, neighborhood-level social effects, and increased rates of alcohol-related morbidities and mortalities, such as from motor vehicle crashes, pedestrian injuries, and various types of violence

Linking Emergency Medical Services and Emergency Department Data to Improve Overdose Surveillance in North Carolina

Introduction Linking emergency medical services (EMS) data to emergency department (ED) data enables assessing the continuum of care and evaluating patient outcomes. We developed novel methods to enhance linkage performance and analysis of EMS and ED data for opioid overdose surveillance in North Carolina. Methods We identified data on all EMS encounters in North Carolina during January 1–November 30, 2017, with documented naloxone administration and transportation to the ED. We linked these data with ED visit data in the North Carolina Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool. We manually reviewed a subset of data from 12 counties to create a gold standard that informed developing iterative linkage methods using demographic, time, and destination variables. We calculated the proportion of suspected opioid overdose EMS cases that received International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes for opioid overdose in the ED. Results We identified 12 088 EMS encounters of patients treated with naloxone and transported to the ED. The 12-county subset included 1781 linkage-eligible EMS encounters, with historical linkage of 65.4% (1165 of 1781) and 1.6% false linkages. Through iterative linkage methods, performance improved to 91.0% (1620 of 1781) with 0.1% false linkages. Among statewide EMS encounters with naloxone administration, the linkage improved from 47.1% to 91.1%. We found diagnosis codes for opioid overdose in the ED among 27.2% of statewide linked records. Practice Implications Through an iterative linkage approach, EMS–ED data linkage performance improved greatly while reducing the number of false linkages. Improved EMS–ED data linkage quality can enhance surveillance activities, inform emergency response practices, and improve quality of care through evaluating initial patient presentations, field interventions, and ultimate diagnoses

Suicide typologies among Medicaid beneficiaries, North Carolina 2014–2017

Background: There is a well-established need for population-based screening strategies to identify people at risk of suicide. Because only about half of suicide decedents are ever diagnosed with a behavioral health condition, it may be necessary for providers to consider life circumstances that may also put individuals at risk. This study described the alignment of medical diagnoses with life circumstances by identifying suicide typologies among decedents. Demographics, stressful life events, suicidal behavior, perceived and diagnosed health problems, and suicide method contributed to the typologies. Methods: This study linked North Carolina Medicaid and North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System (NC-VDRS) data for analysis in 2020. For suicide decedents from 2014 to 2017 aged 25–54 years, we analyzed 12 indicators of life circumstances from NC-VDRS and 6 indicators from Medicaid claims, using a latent class model. Separate models were developed for men and women. Results: Most decedents were White (88.3%), with a median age of 41, and over 70% had a health care visit in the 90 days prior to suicide. Two typologies were identified in both males (n = 175) and females (n = 153). Both typologies had similar profiles of life circumstances, but one had high probabilities of diagnosed behavioral health conditions (45% of men, 71% of women), compared to low probabilities in the other (55% of men, 29% of women). Black beneficiaries and men who died by firearm were over-represented in the less-diagnosed class, though estimates were imprecise (odds ratio for Black men: 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 0.8, 12.4; odds ratio for Black women: 5.0, 95% confidence interval: 0.9, 31.2; odds ratio for male firearm decedents: 1.6, 95% confidence interval: 0.7, 3.4). Conclusions: Nearly half of suicide decedents have a typology characterized by low probability of diagnosis of behavioral health conditions. Suicide screening could likely be enhanced using improved indicators of lived experience and behavioral health

Comparative analysis of pedestrian injuries using police, emergency department, and death certificate data sources in North Carolina, U.S., 2007–2012

Pedestrian safety programs are needed to address the rising incidence of pedestrian fatalities. Unfortunately, most communities lack comprehensive information on the circumstances of pedestrian crashes and resulting injuries that could help guide decision-making for prevention program development and implementation. This study aimed to evaluate how three commonly available data sources (police-reported pedestrian crashes, emergency department [ED] visits, and death certificates) define and capture pedestrian injury data, and to compare the distribution of pedestrian injuries and fatalities across these data sources. Existing state-wide data sources in North Carolina, U.S.A.,—police-reported pedestrian crashes, ED visits, and death certificates—were used to perform a descriptive analysis of temporal and demographic pedestrian injury severity distributions for a 6-year period (2007–2012). After excluding non-relevant cases, there were 12,646 police-reported pedestrian crashes, 17,369 pedestrian-injury-related ED visits, and 993 pedestrian-related death certificate cases. Pedestrian injury distributions appeared similar across the three data sets in relation to pedestrian sex, age, and temporality. Police data (which represented crashes rather than all pedestrians involved in a crash) likely underrepresented pedestrian injury incidence, while ED data (which represented ED visits, with multiple visits per person possible) likely overrepresented pedestrian injury incidence. The study provides a better understanding of the discrepancies between pedestrian injury data sources and key considerations when using police, ED, and death certificate data for surveillance or injury prevention efforts

Trends in unintentional polysubstance overdose deaths and individual and community correlates of polysubstance overdose, North Carolina, 2009-2018

Background: Polysubstance involvement is increasing among fatal drug overdoses. However, little is known about the epidemiology of polysubstance drug overdoses. This paper describes emerging trends in unintentional polysubstance overdose deaths in North Carolina (NC) and examines associations with individual and community factors. Methods: Using 2009–2018 NC death certificate data, we identified unintentional drug overdose deaths and commonly involved substances (opioids, stimulants, benzodiazepines, alcohol, and antiepileptics). We examined polysubstance combinations, comparing opioid and non-opioid involved deaths. We examined individual level correlates from death certificate data and community level correlates from the American Community Survey and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings to quantify associations. Results: From 2009–2018, 53 % of opioid and 19 % of non-opioid overdose deaths involved multiple substances. During this period, polysubstance overdose death increased dramatically, from 2.9 to 12.1 per 100,000 persons, with the greatest increases among drug combinations involving stimulants. The most common polysubstance combinations were: opioids and stimulants (12.1 % of overdose deaths); opioids and benzodiazepines (9.0 %); opioids and alcohol (5.1 %); opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines (3.1 %); and opioids, benzodiazepines, and antiepileptics (2.2 %). Compared to overdoses involving opioids alone, overdoses involving combinations of opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines involved younger individuals (53.7 % in 15−34 years of age vs. 40.7 %). Men comprised two-thirds of overdoses involving opioids alone, however, overdoses involving opioids, benzodiazepines, and antiepileptics were predominantly among women (60.6 %). Conclusions: Polysubstance involvement has increased among overdose deaths in NC. These findings can be used to inform public health interventions addressing polysubstance deaths and associated individual and community level factors

Potential injuries and costs averted by increased use of evidence-based behavioral road safety policies in North Carolina

Objective: The purpose of this study was to estimate the potential injuries and costs that could be averted by implementing evidence-based road safety policies and interventions not currently utilized in one U.S. state, North Carolina (NC). NC consistently has annual motor vehicle-related death rates above the national average. Methods: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Motor Vehicle Prioritizing Interventions and Cost Calculator for States (MV PICCS) tool as a foundation for examining the potential injuries and costs that could be averted from underutilized evidence-based policies, assuming a $1.5 million implementation budget and that income generated from policy-related fines and fees would help offset costs. We further examined costs by payer source. Results: Model results indicated that seven interventions should be prioritized for implementation in NC: increased alcohol ignition interlock use, increased seat belt fines, in-person license renewal for ages 70 and older, license plate impoundment, seat belt enforcement campaigns, saturation patrols, and speed cameras. Increasing the seat belt fine had the potential to avert the greatest number of fatal (n = 70) and non-fatal (n = 6,597) injuries annually, along with being the most cost-effective of the recommended interventions. Collectively, the seven recommended evidence-based policies/interventions have the potential to avert 302 fatal injuries, 16,607 non-fatal injuries, and$839 million annually in NC with the greatest costs averted for insurers. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the utility of the MV PICCS tool as a foundation for exploring state-specific impacts that could be realized through increased evidence-based road safety policy and intervention implementation. For NC, we found that increasing the seat belt fine would avert the most injuries, and had the greatest financial benefits for the state, and the lowest implementation costs. Incorporating fines and fees into policy implementation can create important financial feedbacks that allow for implementation of additional evidence-based and cost-effective policies/interventions. Given the recent uptick in U.S. motor vehicle-related deaths, analyses informed by the MV PICCS tool can help researchers and policy makers initiate discussions about successful state-specific strategies for reducing the burden of crashes

Use of syndromic surveillance data to monitor poisonings and drug overdoses in state and local public health agencies

Background The incidence of poisoning and drug overdose has risen rapidly in the USA over the last 16 years. To inform local intervention approaches, local health departments (LHDs) in North Carolina (NC) are using a statewide syndromic surveillance system that provides timely, local emergency department (ED) and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data on medication and drug overdoses. Objective The purpose of this article is to describe the development and use of a variety of case definitions for poisoning and overdose implemented in NC’s syndromic surveillance system and the impact of the system on local surveillance initiatives. Design, setting, participants Thirteen new poisoning and overdose-related case definitions were added to NC’s syndromic surveillance system and LHDs were trained on their use for surveillance purposes. Twenty-one LHDs were surveyed on the utility and impact of these new case definitions. Results/Conclusions Ninety-one per cent of survey respondents (n = 29) agreed or strongly agreed that their ability to access timely ED data was vital to inform community-level overdose prevention work. Providing LHDs with access to local, timely data to identify pockets of need and engage stakeholders facilitates the practice of informed injury prevention and contributes to the reduction of injury incidence in their communities

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of emergency department services for the treatment of injuries

Context: The global COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the utilization of healthcare services; however, the impact on population-level emergency department (ED) utilization patterns for the treatment of acute injuries has not been fully characterized. Objective: This study examined the frequency of North Carolina (NC) EDs visits for selected injury mechanisms during the first eleven months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Data were obtained from the NC Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool (NC DETECT), NC's legislatively mandated statewide syndromic surveillance system for the years 2019 and 2020. Frequencies of January – November 2020 NC ED visits were compared to frequencies of 2019 visits for selected injury mechanisms, classified according to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) injury diagnosis and mechanism codes. Results: In 2020, the total number of injury-related visits declined by 19.5% (N = 651,158) as compared to 2019 (N = 809,095). Visits related to motor vehicle traffic crashes declined by a greater percentage (29%) and falls (19%) declined by a comparable percentage to total injury-related visits. Visits related to assault (15%) and self-harm (10%) declined by smaller percentages. Medication/drug overdose visits increased (10%), the only injury mechanism studied to increase during this period. Conclusion: Both ED avoidance and decreased exposures may have contributed to these declines, creating implications for injury morbidity and mortality. Injury outcomes exacerbated by the pandemic should be addressed by timely public health responses