Current Practice of Official Population Projections in the EU

The report reviews the current practice of statistical agencies in Europe (EU-25) for defining the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions in population projections and draws preliminary conclusions from the review

The diet of Saker Falcon Falco cherrug overwintering in the Mediterranean (Sicily)

The winter diet of Saker Falcon Falco cherrug in the Mediterranean basin is unknown. Thanks to satellite tracking of two individuals from Hungary to Sicily, during winters 2012-13 and 2013-14 we identified the roost and collected 40 pellets. Pellet analysis allowed identification of 124 prey belonging to 29 taxa. Saker Falcons during winter shift their alimentation to insects and birds, with respect to mammals in the breeding season, plundering from small beetles to rabbits. Insects, especially Orthoptera and Coleoptera, were the most frequent prey in both years, totalling the 66.9% of remains. Among vertebrates the Saker Falcons preyed upon birds (21.77%), mammals (5.65%) and reptiles (4.84%). The Rock Dove plus Feral Pigeons are the key-species of winter diet, representing the 45.78% of biomass ingested in the two years. Agricultural intensification and land abandonment is rapidly changing steppe-like habitats of Mediterranean, and negatively affecting most potential prey of Saker Falcons. Conservation of this globally threatened species should consider also anthropogenic pressures outside the breeding range, and implement agri-environment schemes in the more suitable wintering grounds

Population and Human Capital Growth in Egypt: Projections for Governorates to 2051

Human capital formation has been chosen as the initial focal point of this new IIASA population-development-environment case study on Egypt. With its population still likely to double and its water resources severely restricted, Egypt faces formidable population- and environment-related challenges. The government has an explicit population policy aimed at bringing the fertility rate down to replacement level by 2017. With its options for agricultural development severely limited, the future livelihood of this rapidly growing population can only be secured through rapid development in the industrial and service sectors. For both sectors, human capital development is a necessary prerequisite for success. Of course, such development needs to be complemented by the right investment and trade policies. But without a sufficiently well-educated population, Egypt will not be able to compete in the global service and industry markets. The study explores the human capital dimension at the aggregate level for the whole of Egypt and at the governorate level, distinguishing between 21 governorates and the Frontier Region. For each of the governorates a multi-state population projection model is defined that differentiates the population by age, sex, and level of education. The scenarios demonstrate the momentum of educational development: The challenges will be important for those governorates where past investments in education have been insufficient, especially for the female population, and where the working-age population will increase tremendously, such as in Fayoum, Menia, Assyout, and Suhag. The projections point to the necessity of major structural changes in the development of Egypt

An Evaluation of the IIASA/VID Education-Specific Back Projections

In 2007, IIASA and the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (VID) released a database reconstructing detailed information on levels of educational attainment by age (in five-year age groups from 15 to 65+ years), sex, and for every five years between 1970 and 2000 for 120 countries (see Lutz et al. 2007). This database was created in two steps. The reconstruction methodology was applied for the first time and generated what is called the Beta version of the database (unpublished). This paper presents the validation procedure that was implemented to check the plausibility of the Beta version against scattered real data from different sources, mostly from the UNESCO collection of levels of educational attainment. The verification was done by using two main indicators where a comparison was possible: Proportion of the population with no education (E1) and proportion with a tertiary education (E4). The validation procedure was a crucial factor in arriving at the present version of the database (called version 1.0). This paper also presents the results of the validation of the published version against real data, and highlights the need for the harmonization of education data to facilitate comparison over time and space

Traumberuf oder Verlegenheitslösung?: Einstiegsmotivation und Arbeitssituation des wissenschaftlichen Nachwuchses in Kommunikationswissenschaft und Medienwissenschaft

Zusammenfassung: Über die Beschäftigungs- und Ausbildungsbedingungen des wissenschaftlichen Nachwuchses in Kommunikationswissenschaft und Medienwissenschaft ist bisher vergleichsweise wenig bekannt. Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es daher, eine erste umfassende Bestandsaufnahme des wissenschaftlichen Nachwuchses im Fach bis zur Promotion zu leisten. Hierfür wurden alle Promovierenden in Deutschland, der Schweiz und in Österreich zu ihrer Wahrnehmung und Beurteilung der eigenen beruflichen Situation und Zukunft befragt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen u. a., dass die Nachwuchswissenschaftler/innen auf der einen Seite zwar hoch intrinsisch motiviert sind, andererseits nehmen sie eine wissenschaftliche Karriere als sehr unsicher und hürdenreich wahr. Zudem lassen sich verschiedene Typen von Nachwuchskräften ausmachen: die Idealisten, die Karrieristen und die Unentschlossenen. Es zeigt sich, dass lediglich die Idealisten dem Wunschbild eines produktiven und interessierten Wissenschaftlers entsprechen. Die Ergebnisse werden vor dem Hintergrund der zukünftigen Fachentwicklung diskutier

Report on methods for demographic projections at multiple levels of aggregation

This report describes methods of internal consistency in population projections at multiple levels of aggregation. The first step in the process is to make the initial assumptions used in the projections at different levels of aggregation consistent. This input-level consistency can be further enhanced by output-level analysis. Comparing the results at the relevant levels of aggregation ensures internal consistency at the output level. Thus, we are able to compare the differences in the age and sex distribution of the population and specific demographic indicators (such as the old age dependency ratio) over various regional levels. In PLUREL, the national projections will be carried out using the probabilistic method while the regional projections will use deterministic or variant methods. The results at these two levels of aggregation cannot be directly compared one-to-one as there is no simple correspondence between the output variants and the probabilistic range. To avoid any problems arising from this, we develop an index representing the differences in the size and distribution of the population from the variant method to a given percentile in the probabilistic population estimate. The report discusses various population projection techniques together with their strengths and weaknesses. The relative advantage of specific models for different purposes is discussed forming a selection of models to be used for the population projections in PLUREL: National (NUTS1-0), Regional (NUTS-2) and Case Study Projections (NUTS-5). We conclude that stochastic projections are best suited for national projections, while classic or multiregional cohort-component model projections are likely to be the best choice for the regional projections and for the detailed case study projections

Mozambique's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges

What are the prospects for sustainable development over the next 20 years in Mozambique? Although it looks as if much of the development prospects are determined by such inherently unpredictable events as war, peace, and weather calamities, there are also many changes and patterns which have a long-term stability and which change only slowly over time. For example, socio-demographic changes, such as labor force skills, and population health have a long momentum. These are very important indicators for the economic development potential of a country. Also, although it is impossible to predict a particular year of heavy rains or droughts, there are long time series of weather from which we can calculate the country's vulnerability to single- or multiple-year weather disasters. To focus our efforts in answering this bold question, we concentrate on four issues: (1) Can poverty be erased in the next 20 years? (2) How will school enrollment lead to higher skills in the labor force by 2020? (3) What role will water play in development, in particular, water provision by rain to rural areas, and infrastructure to cities? (4) And, most importantly, what will be the impacts of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the next decades

Újrakezdett kezelés hatása fokozottan védett kékperjés láprét fitomasszájára, faj és virággazdagságára.

A Gyertyán kúti-réteken (Zempléni-hegység) 1993-ban kezdtük felhagyott gyepek rekonstrukciójának vizsgálatát. Junco-Molinion állományokban két kézi kaszával kaszált és két kontroll parcellán belül állandó jelölésű mintanégyzetekben a 12 éven át ismételt kaszálás vegetációra gyakorolt hatását mértük fel. Parcellánként 20 db 1 m2-es kvadrátban felvettük a fajonkénti borítást és a generatív hajtások számát, illetve 32 db 10×10 cm-es fitomassza mintát vettünk. A fűnemű (fű, sás, szittyó), dudva (kétszikűek, Orchidaceae, Iridaceae és Liliaceae taxonok) és holt fitomassza frakciók tömegét légszáraz állapotban mértük. Az összfajszám, a dudvák fajszáma szignifikánsan magasabb, a fűneműek virágzási sikere, fitomasszája és a holt fitomassza mennyisége szignifikánsan alacsonyabb volt a kezelt területeken. A kaszálás a fűnemű csoport fitomasszáját, produktivitását csökkentve segíti faj- és virággazdagabb gyepek kialakítását és fenntartását