Bayesian Analysis

After making some general remarks, I consider two examples that illustrate the use of Bayesian Probability Theory. The first is a simple one, the physicist's favorite "toy," that provides a forum for a discussion of the key conceptual issue of Bayesian analysis: the assignment of prior probabilities. The other example illustrates the use of Bayesian ideas in the real world of experimental physics.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, Workshop on Confidence Limits, CERN, 17-18 January, 200

Bulk contribution to magnetotransport properties of low defect-density Bi2_2Te3_3 topological insulator thin films

An important challenge in the field of topological materials is to carefully disentangle the electronic transport contribution of the topological surface states from that of the bulk. For Bi$_2$Te$_3$ topological insulator samples, bulk single crystals and thin films exposed to air during fabrication processes are known to be bulk conducting, with the chemical potential in the bulk conduction band. For Bi$_2$Te$_3$ thin films grown by molecular beam epitaxy, we combine structural characterization (transmission electron microscopy), chemical surface analysis as function of time (x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy) and magnetotransport analysis to understand the low defect density and record high bulk electron mobility once charge is doped into the bulk by surface degradation. Carrier densities and electronic mobilities extracted from the Hall effect and the quantum oscillations are consistent and reveal a large bulk carrier mobility. Because of the cylindrical shape of the bulk Fermi surface, the angle dependence of the bulk magnetoresistance oscillations is two-dimensional in nature.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

On word-representability of polyomino triangulations

A graph $G=(V,E)$ is word-representable if there exists a word $w$ over the alphabet $V$ such that letters $x$ and $y$ alternate in $w$ if and only if $(x,y)$ is an edge in $E$. Some graphs are word-representable, others are not. It is known that a graph is word-representable if and only if it accepts a so-called semi-transitive orientation. The main result of this paper is showing that a triangulation of any convex polyomino is word-representable if and only if it is 3-colorable. We demonstrate that this statement is not true for an arbitrary polyomino. We also show that the graph obtained by replacing each $4$-cycle in a polyomino by the complete graph $K_4$ is word-representable. We employ semi-transitive orientations to obtain our results

Model Inference with Reference Priors

We describe the application of model inference based on reference priors to two concrete examples in high energy physics: the determination of the CKM matrix parameters rhobar and etabar and the determination of the parameters m_0 and m_1/2 in a simplified version of the CMSSM SUSY model. We show how a 1-dimensional reference posterior can be mapped to the n-dimensional (n-D) parameter space of the given class of models, under a minimal set of conditions on the n-D function. This reference-based function can be used as a prior for the next iteration of inference, using Bayes' theorem recursively.Comment: Proceedings of PHYSTAT1

Strategy for discovering a low-mass Higgs boson at the Fermilab Tevatron

We have studied the potential of the CDF and DZero experiments to discover a low-mass Standard Model Higgs boson, during Run II, via the processes $p\bar{p}$ -> WH -> $\ell\nu b\bar{b}$, $p\bar{p}$ -> ZH -> $\ell^{+}\ell^{-}b\bar{b}$ and $p\bar{p}$ -> ZH ->$\nu \bar{\nu} b\bar{b}$. We show that a multivariate analysis using neural networks, that exploits all the information contained within a set of event variables, leads to a significant reduction, with respect to {\em any} equivalent conventional analysis, in the integrated luminosity required to find a Standard Model Higgs boson in the mass range 90 GeV/c**2 < M_H < 130 GeV/c**2. The luminosity reduction is sufficient to bring the discovery of the Higgs boson within reach of the Tevatron experiments, given the anticipated integrated luminosities of Run II, whose scope has recently been expanded.Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, 7 tables, to appear in Physical Review D, Minor fixes and revision