Optimising time-limited non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 outbreak control

Retrospective analyses of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to combat the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak have highlighted the potential of optimizing interventions. These optimal interventions allow policymakers to manage NPIs to minimize the epidemiological and human health impacts of both COVID-19 and the intervention itself. Here, we use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) mathematical model to explore the feasibility of optimizing the duration, magnitude and trigger point of five different NPI scenarios to minimize the peak prevalence or the attack rate of a simulated UK COVID-19 outbreak. An optimal parameter space to minimize the peak prevalence or the attack rate was identified for each intervention scenario, with each scenario differing with regard to how reductions to transmission were modelled. However, we show that these optimal interventions are fragile, sensitive to epidemiological uncertainty and prone to implementation error. We highlight the use of robust, but suboptimal interventions as an alternative, with these interventions capable of mitigating the peak prevalence or the attack rate over a broader, more achievable parameter space, but being less efficacious than theoretically optimal interventions. This work provides an illustrative example of the concept of intervention optimization across a range of different NPI strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'

Modeling the initiation of others into injection drug use, using data from 2,500 injectors surveyed in Scotland during 2008-2009

The prevalence of injection drug use has been of especial interest for assessment of the impact of blood-borne viruses. However, the incidence of injection drug use has been underresearched. Our 2-fold aim in this study was to estimate 1) how many other persons, per annum, an injection drug user (IDU) has the equivalent of full responsibility (EFR) for initiating into injection drug use and 2) the consequences for IDUs' replacement rate. EFR initiation rates are strongly associated with incarceration history, so that our analysis of IDUs' replacement rate must incorporate when, in their injecting career, IDUs were first incarcerated. To do so, we have first to estimate piecewise constant incarceration rates in conjunction with EFR initiation rates, which are then combined with rates of cessation from injecting to model IDUs' replacement rate over their injecting career, analogous to the reproduction number of an epidemic model. We apply our approach to Scotland's IDUs, using over 2,500 anonymous injector participants who were interviewed in Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative during 2008-2009. Our approach was made possible by the inclusion of key questions about initiations. Finally, we extend our model to include an immediate quit rate, as a reasoned compensation for higher-than-expected replacement rates, and we estimate how high initiates' quit rate should be for IDUs' replacement rate to be 1

Direct and indirect causal effects of heterozygosity on fitness-related traits in Alpine ibex

Heterozygosity–fitness correlations (HFCs) are a useful tool to investigate the effects of inbreeding in wild populations, but are not informative in distinguishing between direct and indirect effects of heterozygosity on fitness-related traits. We tested HFCs in male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) in a free-ranging population (which suffered a severe bottleneck at the end of the eighteenth century) and used confirmatory path analysis to disentangle the causal relationships between heterozygosity and fitness-related traits. We tested HFCs in 149 male individuals born between 1985 and 2009. We found that standardized multi-locus heterozygosity (MLH), calculated from 37 microsatellite loci, was related to body mass and horn growth, which are known to be important fitness-related traits, and to faecal egg counts (FECs) of nematode eggs, a proxy of parasite resistance. Then, using confirmatory path analysis, we were able to show that the effect of MLH on horn growth was not direct but mediated by body mass and FEC. HFCs do not necessarily imply direct genetic effects on fitness-related traits, which instead can be mediated by other traits in complex and unexpected ways

A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change, and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change‐related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N=426 species) under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario. Generalised linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent, and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst‐case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest‐dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species’ ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale

Still armed after domestication? Impacts of domestication and agronomic selection on silicon defences in cereals

Plant phenotypes reflect trade‐offs between competing resource‐intensive physiological processes. A shift in resource allocation, away from anti‐herbivore defences and towards growth and reproduction, is predicted through plant domestication, such that crops are faster growing and higher yielding than their wild ancestors. These changes are hypothesized to have come at the cost of defence investment, leaving crops “disarmed by domestication”. Silicon is the principal anti‐herbivore defence in grasses, including many of our most important staple cereal crops, but the impact of domestication on silicon‐based defences is unknown. We measured the effects of both domestication and modern agronomic selection on growth rate and a suite of anti‐herbivore defences, specifically leaf toughness, silicon and phenolic concentrations. Our comparison of wild, landrace and modern cultivated cereals spanned multiple cereal species, including wheat, barley and maize, sampling eight independent domestication events and five examples of modern agronomic selection. Leaf silicon concentration showed a small, but significant, 10% reduction through domestication, but there was no effect of modern agronomic selection, and phenolic concentration was not affected by either factor. Silicon concentration correlated positively with leaf tensile strength, but negatively with foliar phenolic concentrations, suggesting a trade‐off between chemical and physical defences. Size‐standardized growth rate was independent of domestication status, and did not trade‐off with silicon or phenolic defences. However, modelling showed that relative growth rate slowed more with increasing size in plants with higher silicon levels, so that they reached a smaller final size, implying a cost of silicon‐based defence. We found the opposite pattern for phenolic‐based defence, with increasing phenolic concentrations associated with a greater plant size at maturity, and faster maximum relative growth rates. Silicon‐based defences have been reduced in cereals through domestication, consistent with our predicted costs of these defences to growth. However, modern agronomic selection has not influenced silicon defences in cereal crops and the small decrease in silicon concentration associated with domestication is unlikely to have a major effect on the ability of cereals to withstand a range of abiotic and biotic stresses. These findings have broad implications for crop protection and our understanding of plant trade‐offs

Characterization of pearl millet root architecture and anatomy reveals three types of lateral roots

Pearl millet plays an important role for food security in arid regions of Africa and India. Nevertheless, it is considered an orphan crop as it lags far behind other cereals in terms of genetic improvement efforts. Breeding pearl millet varieties with improved root traits promises to deliver benefits in water and nutrient acquisition. Here, we characterize of early pearl millet root system development using several different root phenotyping approaches that include rhizotrons and microCT. We report that early stage pearl millet root system development is characterized by a fast growing primary root that quickly colonizes deeper soil horizons. We also describe root anatomical studies that revealed 3 distinct types of lateral roots that form on both primary roots and crown roots. Finally, we detected significant variation for two root architectural traits in pearl millet inbred lines. This study provides the basis for subsequent genetic experiments to identify loci associated with interesting early root development traits in this important cereal

Syndromic surveillance of influenza-like illness in Scotland during the influenza A H1N1v pandemic and beyond

Syndromic surveillance refers to the rapid monitoring of syndromic data to highlight and follow outbreaks of infectious diseases, increasing situational awareness. Such systems are based upon statistical models to described routinely collected health data. We describe a working exception reporting system (ERS) currently used in Scotland to monitor calls received to the NHS telephone helpline, NHS24. We demonstrate the utility of the system to describe the time series data from NHS24 both at an aggregated Scotland level and at the individual health board level for two case studies, firstly during the initial phase of the 2009 Influenza A H1N1v and secondly for the emergence of seasonal influenza in each winter season from 2006/07 and 2010/11. In particular, we focus on a localised cluster of infection in the Highland health board and the ability of the system to highlight this outbreak. Caveats of the system, including the effect of media reporting of the pandemic on the results and the associated statistical issues, will be discussed. We discuss the adaptability and timeliness of the system and how this continues to form part of a suite of surveillance used to give early warnings to public health decision makers

Evaluation and use of surveillance system data toward the identification of high-risk areas for potential cholera vaccination: a case study from Niger.

In 2008, Africa accounted for 94% of the cholera cases reported worldwide. Although the World Health Organization currently recommends the oral cholera vaccine in endemic areas for high-risk populations, its use in Sub-Saharan Africa has been limited. Here, we provide the principal results of an evaluation of the cholera surveillance system in the region of Maradi in Niger and an analysis of its data towards identifying high-risk areas for cholera

The “resort effect”: Can tourist islands act as refuges for coral reef species?

There is global consensus that marine protected areas offer a plethora of benefits to the biodiversity within and around them. Nevertheless, many organisms threatened by human impacts also find shelter in unexpected or informally protected places. For coral reef organisms, refuges can be tourist resorts implementing local environment-friendly bottom-up management strategies. We used the coral reef ecosystem as a model to test whether such practices have positive effects on the biodiversity associated with de facto protected areas.USAI

Physical education contributes to total physical activity levels and predominantly in higher intensity physical activity categories

Children’s engagement in physical activity of a vigorous intensity or higher is more effective at promoting cardiorespiratory fitness than moderate physical activity. It remains unclear how higher intensity physical activity varies between days when schoolchildren participate in physical education (PE) and non-PE days. The purpose of this study was to assess how PE contributes to sedentary behaviour and the intensity profile of physical activity accumulated on PE days compared to non-PE days. Fifty-three schoolchildren (36 girls, 11.7 ± 0.3 years) completed five-day minute-by-minute habitual physical activity monitoring using triaxial accelerometers to determine time spent sedentary (<1.5 Metabolic Equivalent of Tasks (METs)) and in light (1.5–2.9 METs), moderate (3–5.9 METs), vigorous (6–8.9 METs), hard (9–11.9 METs) and very hard intensity (≥12 METs) physical activity on PE days and non-PE days. Sedentary time was higher on non-PE days than on PE days (mean difference: 62 minutes, p < 0.001). Hard and very hard intensity physical activity was significantly higher on PE days compared with non-PE days (mean total difference: 33 minutes, all significant at p < 0.001). During the PE lesson, boys spent more time in hard (p < 0.01) and very hard (p < 0.01) physical activity compared to girls. Schoolchildren spent significantly more time in higher intensity physical activity and significantly less time sedentary on PE days than on non-PE days. As well as reducing sedentary behaviour, the opportunity to promote such health-promoting higher intensity physical activity in the school setting warrants further investigation