An approximate analytical formula for estimating the weight of factors affecting the spread of COVID-19: a case study of the first wave

COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we live our lives for the foreseen future. To date, there have been over 113 million reported cases and 2.5 million deaths worldwide. Many studies investigated the factors affecting the number of daily cases such as weather conditions, lockdown duration and other factors. In this study, we propose a COVID-19 analytical formula for factors contributing to the number of the new coronavirus daily cases. We have also calculated values of relative weights of those factors. We focus on the first wave data that are publically available. Seven countries were considered including the UK, Italy, Spain, Canada, South Korea, Germany and France. We considered the following factors: temperature, humidity, government expenditure, lockdown hours and the number of daily tests for COVID-19 performed. The weights were calculated based on the hypothesis that a high correlation between recorded data of a given pair of countries implies a high correlation of the pair’s COVID-19 proposed analytical formula. The factors are calculated using the brute-force technique. Our results showed that in five out of the seven countries; temperature, humidity, and lockdown duration were the most dominant with values of 26%, 32% and 38%, respectively. In other countries, however, humidity, government expenditure and the daily performed tests for COVID-19 were the most effective factors, with relative values of 35%, 26%, and 28%

Genetic, serological and biochemical characterization of Leishmania tropica from foci in northern Palestine and discovery of zymodeme MON-307

Background Many cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) have been recorded in the Jenin District based on their clinical appearance. Here, their parasites have been characterized in depth. Methods Leishmanial parasites isolated from 12 human cases of CL from the Jenin District were cultured as promastigotes, whose DNA was extracted. The ITS1 sequence and the 7SL RNA gene were analysed as was the kinetoplast minicircle DNA (kDNA) sequence. Excreted factor (EF) serotyping and multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MLEE) were also applied. Results This extensive characterization identified the strains as Leishmania tropica of two very distinct sub-types that parallel the two sub-groups discerned by multilocus microsatellite typing (MLMT) done previously. A high degree of congruity was displayed among the results generated by the different analytical methods that had examined various cellular components and exposed intra-specific heterogeneity among the 12 strains. Three of the ten strains subjected to MLEE constituted a new zymodeme, zymodeme MON-307, and seven belonged to the known zymodeme MON-137. Ten of the 15 enzymes in the profile of zymodeme MON-307 displayed different electrophoretic mobilities compared with the enzyme profile of the zymodeme MON-137. The closest profile to that of zymodeme MON-307 was that of the zymodeme MON-76 known from Syria. Strains of the zymodeme MON-307 were EF sub-serotype A2 and those of the zymodeme MON-137 were either A9 or A9B4. The sub-serotype B4 component appears, so far, to be unique to some strains of L. tropica of zymodeme MON-137. Strains of the zymodeme MON-137 displayed a distinctive fragment of 417 bp that was absent in those of zymodeme MON-307 when their kDNA was digested with the endonuclease RsaI. kDNA-RFLP after digestion with the endonuclease MboI facilitated a further level of differentiation that partially coincided with the geographical distribution of the human cases from which the strains came. Conclusions The Palestinian strains that were assigned to different genetic groups differed in their MLEE profiles and their EF types. A new zymodeme, zymodeme MON-307 was discovered that seems to be unique to the northern part of the Palestinian West Bank. What seemed to be a straight forward classical situation of L. tropica causing anthroponotic CL in the Jenin District might be a more complex situation, owing to the presence of two separate sub-types of L. tropica that, possibly, indicates two separate transmission cycles involving two separate types of phlebotomine sand fly vector

Geographical variations of asthma and asthma symptoms among schoolchildren aged 5 to 8 years and 12 to 15 years in Palestine: the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC)

Background: Many studies demonstrated the existence of geographic differences, within and between countries, in the prevalence of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema. However, in Palestine, there are no comprehensive Palestinian data to compare with those from other regional and international centers. Objective: To describe the prevalence of asthma and asthma symptoms in schoolchildren in two districts (Ramallah and North Gaza) in Palestine. Methods: After a two-stage stratified systematic sampling, approximately 14,500 schoolchildren, from the first and second grades of elementary school (ages 5 to 8 years) and eighth and ninth school grades (ages 12 to 15 years), were invited to participate in a survey using International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood phase III questionnaires and protocols. Results: In general, younger children were reported to have a higher 12-month wheezing prevalence rate than older children (9.6 and 7.2%, respectively), and more physician-diagnosed asthma (8.4 and 5.9%, respectively). However, nocturnal cough and exercise-related wheezing were higher in the older age group compared with younger children. Younger children living in North Gaza district showed slightly higher prevalence rates for asthma and asthma symptoms, but older children had higher rates in Ramallah district. After adjustment using logistic regression analysis, male sex, living in inland areas, and younger age were shown to predict 12-month wheezing and physician-diagnosed asthma. Conclusions: Palestinian children have asthma symptoms rates that are similar to several countries in the Mediterranean region such as Spain and Turkey, but still lower than other Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia and Israel

Wwox inactivation enhances mammary tumorigenesis

Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death in women worldwide. Expression of the WWOX tumor suppressor is absent or reduced in a large proportion of breast tumors suggesting that loss of WWOX may contribute to breast tumorigenesis. Wwox-deficient mice die by 3–4 weeks of age precluding adult tumor analysis. To evaluate the effect of WWOX-altered expression on mammary tumor formation, the Wwox-heterozygous allele was back crossed onto the C3H mammary tumor-susceptible genetic background (WwoxC3Hþ/ ) and incidence of mammary tumor formation was evaluated. Although 50% of the female WwoxC3Hþ/ mice developed mammary carcinomas, only 7% of WwoxC3Hþ/þ mice did. Intriguingly, mammary tumors in WwoxC3Hþ/ mice frequently lost WWOX protein expression suggesting a genetic predisposition toward mammary tumorigenesis. Immunohistochemical staining of hormone receptors revealed loss of estrogen receptor-a (ER) and progesterone receptor in the majority of these tumors. In vitro, depletion ofWWOX in MCF7 ER-positive cells led to reduced ER expression and reduced sensitivity to tamoxifen and estrogen treatment and was associated with enhanced survival and anchorageindependent growth. Finally, cDNA array analyses of murine normal mammary epithelial cells and mammary tumors identified 163 significantly downreguated and 129 upregulated genes in the tumors. The majority of differentially expressed genes were part of pathways involved in cellular movement, cell-to-cell signaling and interaction, cellular development, cellular growth and proliferation and cell death. These changes in gene expression of mouse mammary tumors in WwoxC3Hþ/ mice resemble, at least in part, human breast cancer development. Our findings demonstrate the critical role that the WWOX tumor suppressor gene has in preventing tumorigenesis in breast cancer.We are grateful to all the Aqeilan’s lab members for helpful suggestions and technical assistance. This research was supported by grants from NIH (R01DK060907) to ZN and RIA, Israeli Science Foundation (#1331/08) to RIA and Israel Cancer Research Funds (ICRF) to ZS

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

The haloes and environments of nearby galaxies (HERON) -- III. A 45 kpc spiral structure in the GLSB galaxy UGC 4599

We use a 0.7-m telescope in the framework of the Halos and Environments of Nearby Galaxies (HERON) survey to probe low surface brightness structures in nearby galaxies. One of our targets, UGC 4599, is usually classified as an early-type galaxy surrounded by a blue ring making it a potential Hoag's Object analog. Prior photometric studies of UGC 4599 were focused on its bright core and the blue ring. However, the HERON survey allows us to study its faint extended regions. With an eight hour integration, we detect an extremely faint outer disk with an extrapolated central surface brightness of $\mu_\mathrm{0,d}(r)=25.5$ mag arcsec$^{-2}$ down to 31 mag arcsec$^{-2}$ and a scale length of 15 kpc. We identify two distinct spiral arms of pitch angle ~6{\deg} surrounding the ring. The spiral arms are detected out to ~45 kpc in radius and the faint disk continues to ~70 kpc. These features are also seen in the GALEX FUV and NUV bands, in a deep u-band image from the 4.3m Lowell Discovery Telescope (which reveals inner spiral structure emerging from the core), and in HI. We compare this galaxy to ordinary spiral and elliptical galaxies, giant low surface brightness (GLSB) galaxies, and Hoag's Object itself using several standard galaxy scaling relations. We conclude that the pseudobulge and disk properties of UGC 4599 significantly differ from those of Hoag's Object and of normal galaxies, pointing toward a GLSB galaxy nature and filamentary accretion of gas to generate its outer disk.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA