Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model

Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv) resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv) AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv) are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the Indian monsoon weakening appears to be connected to the North Atlantic cooling via that of the troposphere over Eurasia. Such an understanding of these teleconnections and their timing could be useful for paleodata interpretation

Past terrestrial water storage (1980–2008) in the Amazon Basin reconstructed from GRACE and in situ river gauging data

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) composed of surface waters, soil moisture, groundwater and snow where appropriate, is a key element of global and continental water cycle. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry mission provides a new tool to measure large-scale TWS variations. However, for the past few decades, direct estimate of TWS variability is accessible from hydrological modeling only. Here we propose a novel approach that combines GRACE-based TWS spatial patterns with multi-decadal-long in situ river level records, to reconstruct past 2-D TWS over a river basin. Results are presented for the Amazon Basin for the period 1980–2008, focusing on the interannual time scale. Results are compared with past TWS estimated by the global hydrological model ISBA-TRIP. Correlations between reconstructed past interannual TWS variability and known climate forcing modes over the region (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are also estimated. This method offers new perspective for improving our knowledge of past interannual TWS in world river basins where natural climate variability (as opposed to direct anthropogenic forcing) drives TWS variations

A modeling sensitivity study of the influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on neodymium isotopic composition at the Last Glacial Maximum

Using a simple parameterisation that resolves the first order global Nd isotopic composition (hereafter expressed as ε<sub>Nd</sub> in an Ocean Global Circulation Model, we have tested the impact of different circulation scenarios on the ε<sub>Nd</sub> in the Atlantic for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), relative to a modern control run. Three different LGM freshwater forcing experiments are performed to test for variability in the ε<sub>Nd</sub> oceanic distribution as a function of ocean circulation. Highly distinct representations of the ocean circulation are generated in the three simulations, which drive significant differences in ε<sub>Nd</sub>, particularly in deep waters of the western part of the basin. However, at the LGM, the Atlantic is more radiogenic than in the modern control run, particularly in the Labrador basin and in the Southern Ocean. A fourth experiment shows that changes in Nd sources and bathymetry drive a shift in the ε<sub>Nd</sub> signature of the basin that is sufficient to explain the changes in the ε<sub>Nd</sub> signature of the northern end-member (NADW or GNAIW glacial equivalent) in our LGM simulations. All three of our LGM circulation scenarios show good agreement with the existing intermediate depth ε<sub>Nd</sub> paleo-data. This study cannot indicate the likelihood of a given LGM oceanic circulation scenario, even if simulations with a prominent water mass of southern origin provide the most conclusive results. Instead, our modeling results highlight the need for more data from deep and bottom waters from western Atlantic, where the ε<sub>Nd</sub> change in the three LGM scenarios is the most important (up to 3 ε<sub>Nd</sub>. This would also aid more precise conclusions concerning the evolution of the northern end-member ε<sub>Nd</sub> signature, and thus the potential use of ε<sub>Nd</sub> as a tracer of past oceanic circulation

Quantifying the roles of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric carbon dioxide at the last glacial maximum

We use a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model to examine the impact of changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing the change in ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM). We examine 5 different realisations of the ocean's overturning circulation produced by a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model under LGM forcing and suggested changes in the atmospheric deposition of iron and phytoplankton physiology at the LGM. Measured changes in carbon-13 and carbon-14, as well as a qualitative reconstruction of the change in ocean carbon export are used to evaluate the results. Overall, we find that while a reduction in ocean ventilation at the LGM is necessary to reproduce carbon-13 and carbon-14 observations, this circulation results in a low net sink for atmospheric CO2. In contrast, while biogeochemical processes contribute little to carbon isotopes, we propose that most of the change in atmospheric CO2 was due to such factors. However, the lesser role for circulation means that when all plausible factors are accounted for, most of the necessary CO2 change remains to be explained. This presents a serious challenge to our understanding of the mechanisms behind changes in the global carbon cycle during the geologic past

The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of Earth surface variables and fluxes

CC Attribution 3.0 License.Final revised paper also available at http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/929/2013/gmd-6-929-2013.pdfInternational audienceSURFEX is a new externalized land and ocean surface platform that describes the surface fluxes and the evolution of four types of surface: nature, town, inland water and ocean. It can be run either coupled or in offline mode. It is mostly based on pre-existing, well validated scientific models. It can be used in offline mode (from point scale to global runs) or fully coupled with an atmospheric model. SURFEX is able to simulate fluxes of carbon dioxide, chemical species, continental aerosols, sea salt and snow particles. It also includes a data assimilation module. The main principles of the organization of the surface are described first. Then, a survey is made of the scientific module (including the coupling strategy). Finally the main applications of the code are summarized. The current applications are extremely diverse, ranging from surface monitoring and hydrology to numerical weather prediction and global climate simulations. The validation work undertaken shows that replacing the pre-existing surface models by SURFEX in these applications is usually associated with improved skill, as the numerous scientific developments contained in this community code are used to good advantage

Vegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World

The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003–2014 as a function of key environmental drivers. These sensitivities are then used to predict temperature changes induced by future leaf area dynamics under four scenarios. Results show that by 2100, under high-emission scenario, greening will likely mitigate land warming by 0.71 ± 0.40 °C, and 83% of such effect (0.59 ± 0.41 °C) is driven by the increase in plant carbon sequestration, while the remaining cooling (0.12 ± 0.05 °C) is due to biophysical land-atmosphere interactions. In addition, our results show a large potential of vegetation to reduce future land warming in the very-stringent scenario (35 ± 20% of the overall warming signal), whereas this effect is limited to 11 ± 6% under the high-emission scenario

Revealing the widespread potential of forests to increase low level cloud cover

Forests play a key role in humanity’s current challenge to mitigate climate change thanks to their capacity to sequester carbon. Preserving and expanding forest cover is considered essential to enhance this carbon sink. However, changing the forest cover can further affect the climate system through biophysical effects. One such effect that is seldom studied is how afforestation can alter the cloud regime, which can potentially have repercussions on the hydrological cycle, the surface radiation budget and on planetary albedo itself. Here we provide a global scale assessment of this effect derived from satellite remote sensing observations. We show that for 67% of sampled areas across the world, afforestation would increase low level cloud cover, which should have a cooling effect on the planet. We further reveal a dependency of this effect on forest type, notably in Europe where needleleaf forests generate more clouds than broadleaf forests

Intercropping Promotes the Ability of Legume and Cereal to Facilitate Phosphorus and Nitrogen Acquisition through Root- Induced Processes

Intercropping of cereal and legume can improve the use of resources for crop growth compared to cropping system. An increase in soil phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) acquisition by root-induced biochemical changes of intercropped species has been reported as key processes of facilitation and complementarily between both intercropping legumes and cereals. Indeed, the functional facilitation prevails over interspecific competition under nutrients limiting for crop growth. Results showed that P availability significantly increased in the rhizosphere of both species, especially in intercropping under the P-deficient soil conditions. This increase was associated with high efficiency efficiency in use of rhizobial, plant growth and resource use efficiency as indicated by higher land equivalent ratio (LER) and N nutrition index. In addition, the rhizosphere P availability and nodule biomass were positively correlated (r2 = 0.71**, and r2 = 0.62**) in the intercropped common bean grown at P-deficient soil. The increased P availability presumably improved biomass and yield in intercropping, although it mainly enhanced intercropped maize grain yield. Exploiting belowground parameters in a legume-cereal intercropping is likely necessary to maximize rhizosphere-interspecific interactions as a strategy to improve the symbiotic rhizobial efficiency and microbial activities, as a result of root-induced pH and N availability changes under low P soils

Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020

With the focus of climate policy shifting from pledges to implementation, there is an increasing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at country level, especially for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models offering unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with the Paris Agreement, and the Global Carbon Budget and IPCC assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs).Recent evidence showed that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic forest CO2 fluxes. In particular, the part of the land sink that is caused by the indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g., fertilization effect on vegetation growth due to increase atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate change) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs, while in most cases is considered anthropogenic in NGHGIs. In addition, countries use a broader definition of managed land than BMs.Building on previous studies, we implement an approach that adds the CO2 sink due to environmental change from countries’ managed forest area (estimated by Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, DGVMs) to the original land-use flux from BMs. This sum is expected to be conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of land categories (i.e., forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses) and countries.Our results confirm a large difference in land use CO2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, estimating a source of 4.3 GtCO2 yr-1 globally for the period 2001–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of -1.7 GtCO2 yr-1. Most of this 6.0 GtCO2 yr-1 gap is found on forest land (3.8 GtCO2 yr-1), with differences also for deforestation (1.1 GtCO2 yr-1), other land uses (1.0 GtCO2 yr-1), and to a lesser extent for organic soils (0.1 GtCO2 yr-1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (-5.1 GtCO2 yr-1) to BMs estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes significantly smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.9 GtCO2 yr-1) and in most regions and countries. The remaining differences mostly reflect smaller net emissions from deforestation and agricultural land in the NGHGIs of developing countries than in the BMs.By reconciling most of the differences between NGHGIs and global models (BMs and DGVMs), offering a blueprint for operationalizing future comparisons, and identifying areas to be further investigated, this study represents an important step forward for increasing transparency and confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates at the country level. This is crucial to support land-based mitigation investments and assess the countries’ collective progress under the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake