Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterraneanbasin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing

International audienceThis study investigates the sensitivity of a moderate-intense storm that occurred over Calabria, southern Italy, to upper-tropospheric forcing from a Potential Vorticity (PV) perspective. A prominent mid-troposheric trough can be identified for this event, which occurred between 22?24 May 2002, and serves as the precursor agent for the moderate-intense precipitation recorded. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast and we test the hypothesis in a two-step approach. First, we examine the degree of uncertainty by comparing five different scenarios in a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) framework which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause as the discriminating variable. Pseudo water vapour images of different scenarios are compared to the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapour image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria, in order to evaluate the reliability of the different precipitation scenarios simulated by the LEPS. Second, we examine the impact of upper tropospheric PV variations on precipitation by comparing model simulations with slightly different initial PV fields. Initial velocity and mass fields in each case are balanced with the chosen PV perturbation using a PV inversion technique. The results of this study support the working hypothesis

L’ambiente marino costiero: aspetti e tutela. Progetto formativo di Alternanza Scuola Lavoro 2016‐2019 Liceo Scienze Applicate

Il percorso formativo consente di acquisire nozioni teoriche e pratiche sulle moderne tecniche (strumentali e metodologiche) di investigazione del “datum” geologico finalizzate allo studio multidisciplinare dell’ambiente marino‐costiero, con particolare riguardo alle ricerche sperimentali che l’Istituto IAMC ha condotto e conduce nel Golfo di Napoli. Vengono trattate anche tematiche di gestione del sistema sicurezza e qualità con particolare riguardo alle attività lavorative di ricerca (acquisizione, elaborazione e restituzione del dato),nonché indicazioni di procedure gestionali di progetto finalizzate al corretto utilizzo della risorsa umana e strumentale

Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

International audienceThis paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and mesoscale forcing, the high resolution forecast (Hi-Res) has better performance compared to the ensemble mean for rainfall thresholds larger than 10mm but it tends to overestimate precipitation for lower amounts. This yields larger false alarms that have a detrimental effect on objective scores for lower thresholds. To exploit the advantages of a probabilistic forecast compared to a deterministic one, the relation between the ECMWF-EPS 700 hPa geopotential height spread and LEPS performance is analyzed. Results are promising even if additional studies are required

Paraneoplastic necrotizing myopathy associated with adenocarcinoma of the lung - a rare entity with atypical onset: a case report.

Introduction. Inflammatory myopathies (such as dermatomyositis and polymyositis) are well-recognized paraneoplastic syndromes. However, paraneoplastic necrotizing myopathy is a more recently defined clinical entity, characterized by rapidly progressive, symmetrical, predominantly proximal muscle weakness with severe disability, and associated with a marked increase in serum muscle enzyme levels. Paraneoplastic necrotizing myopathy requires muscle biopsy for diagnosis, which typically shows massive necrosis of muscle fibers with limited or absent inflammatory infiltrates. Case presentation. We report the case of an 82-year-old Italian-born Caucasian man who was admitted to hospital because of heart failure and two drop attacks. Over the following days, he developed progressive severe weakness, dysphagia, and dysphonia. Testing showed increasing serum muscle enzyme levels. Electromyography showed irritative myopathy of the proximal muscles and sensorimotor polyneuropathy. Muscle biopsy (left vastus lateralis) showed massive necrosis of muscle fibers with negligible inflammatory infiltrates, complement membrane attack complex deposition on endomysial capillaries, and moderate upregulation of major histocompatibility complex-I. Computed tomography of the thorax showed a nodular mass in the apex of the right lung. The patient was diagnosed with paraneoplastic necrotizing myopathy. In spite of high-dose corticoid therapy, he died 1 month later because of his aggressive cancer. Subsequent electron microscopic examination of a muscle biopsy specimen showed thickened walls and typical pipestem changes of the endomysial capillaries, with swollen endothelial cells. Poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma of the lung was confirmed on post-mortem histological examination. Conclusions: Paraneoplastic necrotizing myopathy is a rare syndrome with outcomes ranging from fast progression to complete recovery. Treatment with corticosteroids is often ineffective, and prognosis depends mainly on the characteristics of the underlying cancer. This case shows that paraneoplastic necrotizing myopathy may have an atypical appearance, and should be considered in elderly patients with neoplastic disease. In this case, the diagnosis was delayed by the unusual clinical picture that suggested heart disease rather than muscle disease

A framework for quantifying the magnitude and variability of community responses to global change drivers

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecosphere 6, no. 12 (2015): 1-14, doi:10.1890/ES15-00317.1.A major challenge in global change ecology is to predict the trajectory and magnitude of community change in response to global change drivers (GCDs). Here, we present a new framework that not only increases the predictive power of individual studies, but also allows for synthesis across GCD studies and ecosystems. First, we suggest that by quantifying community dissimilarity of replicates both among and within treatments, we can infer both the magnitude and predictability of community change, respectively. Second, we demonstrate the utility of integrating rank abundance curves with measures of community dissimilarity to understand the species-level dynamics driving community changes and propose a series of testable hypotheses linking changes in rank abundance curves with shifts in community dissimilarity. Finally, we review six case studies that demonstrate how our new conceptual framework can be applied. Overall, we present a new framework for holistically predicting community responses to GCDs that has broad applicability in this era of unprecedented global change and novel environmental conditions.We thank LTER Network Office for funding our working group and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center for additional funding

What's in a name?:Word inflation, punctuation, abbreviation and cloud formation

The title of a journal paper offers a crucial portal into any scientific field. It determines whether interested readers locate the paper and whether others have enough interest sparked to lead them to read the abstract. This article looks at authored journal paper titles in Medical Education over its first 50 years (n = 6357) of publication and Medical Teacher over its first 35 years of publication, revealing both trends in areas of interest and how those interests are worded. Word clouds per decade showed a shift from teaching to learning and from examination to assessment, and new foci on learning, patients, research and feedback in both journals. The average length of title in Medical Education peeked in the 2000s, dropping to 70 characters in the 2010s, with no titles being longer than 140 characters (the length of a tweet) in this last decade. Abbreviations were used sparingly. The use of humorous titles, although not common, has increased in recent years. The use of the colon showed a marked increase in the 1980s, dropping a little in the 2000s but resurging in the 2010s. Titles posed as a question increased steadily, appearing to plateau in the 2000s at 11%. The use of humour and questions suggests that the authors of these articles are submitting papers to be selected by the human rather than just the virtual eye. We also hypothesise that the use of humour may indicate a maturation of medical education as a subject.</p

Review of existing and operable observing systems and sensors

Deliverable 1.4 is aimed at identification of existing and operable observing systems and sensors which are relevant to COMMON SENSE objectives. Report aggregates information on existing observing initiatives, programmes, systems, platforms and sensors. The Report includes: • inventory of previous and current EU funded projects. Some of the them, even if started before 2007, were aimed at activities which are relevant or in line with those stemming from MSFD in 2008. The ‘granulation’ of the contents and objectives of the projects varies from sensors development through observation methodologies to monitoring strategies, • inventory of research infrastructure in Europe. It starts from an attempt to define of Marine Research Infrastructure, as there is not a single definition of Research Infrastructure (RI) or of Marine Research Infrastructure (MRI), and there are different ways to categorise them. The chapter gives the categorization of the MRI, together with detailed description and examples of MRI – research platforms, marine data systems, research sites and laboratories with respect of four MSFD descriptors relevant to COMMON SENSE project, • two chapters on Research Programs and Infrastructure Networks; the pan-European initiatives aimed at cooperation and efficient use of infrastructural resources for marine observation and monitoring and data exchange are analysed. The detailed description of observing sensors and system are presented as well as frameworks for cooperation, • information on platforms (research vessels) available to the Project for testing developed sensors and systems. Platforms are available and operating in all three regions of interest to the project (Mediterranean, North Sea, Baltic), • annexed detailed description of two world-wide observation networks and systems. These systems are excellent examples of added value offered by integrated systems of ocean observation (from data to knowledge) and how they work in practice. Report concludes that it is seen a shortage of new classes of sensors to fulfil the emerging monitoring needs. Sensors proposed to be developed by COMMON SENSE project shall answer to the needs stemmed from introduction of MSFD and GES descriptors

Procedures of sensors deployment methodology on physical supports/platforms

The aim of task 2.3 is to define specific platform characteristics and identify deployment difficulties in order to determine the adequacy of sensors within specific platforms. In order to obtain the necessary information, two online questionnaires were realized. One questionnaire was created for sensor developers and one for those partners that will test the sensors at sea. The seven developers in COMMON SENSE have provided information on seven sensors: two for underwater noise – CEFAS and IOPAN; two for microplastics – IDRONAUT and LEITAT; one for an innovative piro and piezo resistive polymeric temperature and pressure – CSIC; one for heavy metal – CSIC; one for eutrophication sensor – DCU. Outside the scope of the questionnaire, FTM has proposed three sensors of which two for oil spill and one for heavy metals, realized in the framework of a previous EU project but that can be improved and tested with several platforms. This information is anyway incomplete because in most cases for the novel sensors which will be developed over the course of COMMON SENSE, the sensors cannot be clearly designed yet as the project only started a few months ago - and, consequently, technical characteristics cannot actually be perfectly defined. This produces some lag in the acquired information that will be solved in the near future. In the other questionnaire, partners-testers have provided information on eleven platforms. Outside the questionnaire, IOPAN has described two more platforms, one of which is a motorboat not previously listed in the DoW, and they have informed us that the oceanographic buoy in Gdansk Bay is not actually available. This is valid also for platforms from other partners where there were only preliminary contacts like for example for Aqualog and OBSEA Underwater observatory. In the following months, new information will be provided and questionnaires information updated. Then important characteristics have to be considered such as maintenance, energy autonomy, data transfer/storage and dimension of the sensors that are actually missing. Further updates of this report are therefore necessary in order to individuate the most suitable platforms to test each kind of sensor and then used at the end of 2014 when WP9 (Testing activities) will start. Objectives and rationale The objective of deliverable 2.2 is the definition of the characteristics and procedures of sensors deployment methodology on physical supports/platforms, possible needs and characteristics of the available platform. This is preparatory for the activities in other WPs and tasks: - for task 2.2 (New generation technologies), that will provide cost-effective sensors for large scale production through Deliverable 2.1 [month 10]; - for task 2.5 (Monitoring strategy) where sensitivity and stress tests of new sensors will be designed in order to establish confidence limits under different situations and certify the performance of the new instruments [Deliverable 2.5 at month 16]. - for WP9 (Field testing) starting at month 12 (October 2014) when the deployment of new sensors will be drawn and then realized