Is Poverty Decentralising? Quantifying Uncertainty in the Decentralisation of Urban Poverty

In this paper we argue that the recent focus on the suburbanisation of poverty is problematic because of the ambiguities and inconsistencies in defining suburbia. To improve transparency, replicability and comparability, we suggest that research on the geographical changes to the distribution of poverty should focus on three questions: (1) How centralised is urban poverty? (2) To what extent is it decentralising? (3) Is it becoming spatially dispersed? With respect to all three questions, the issue of quantifying uncertainty has been under-researched. The main contribution of the paper is to provide a practical and robust solution to the problem of inference based on a Bayesian multivariate conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, made accessible via the R-software package CARBayes. Our approach can be applied to spatio-temporally autocorrelated data, and can estimate both levels of and change in global RCIs (relative centralisation index), local RCIs and dissimilarity indices. We illustrate our method with an application to Scotland's four largest cities. Our results show that poverty was centralised in 2011 in Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. Poverty in Edinburgh, however, was decentralised: non-poor households tend to live closer to the centre than poor ones, and increasingly so. We also find evidence of statistically significant reductions in centralisation of poverty in all four cities. To test whether this change is associated with poverty becoming more dispersed, we estimate changes to evenness and local decentralisation of poverty, revealing complex patterns of change

Water sources and mixing in riparian wetlands revealed by tracers and geospatial analysis

Acknowledgments We thank the European Research Council (ERC) (project GA 335910 VEWA) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (project NE/K000268/1) for funding and the Airborne Research and Survey Facility for conducting the aerial survey. The data used are available from the authors. In addition, we would like to thank the additional support from Audrey Innes for the sample analysis and Maria Blumstock and Mike Kennedy for assisting with field work.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Spatial weights : constructing weight-compatible exchange matrices from proximity matrices

Exchange matrices represent spatial weights as symmetric probability distributions on pairs of regions, whose margins yield regional weights, generally well-specified and known in most contexts. This contribution proposes a mechanism for constructing exchange matrices, derived from quite general symmetric proximity matrices, in such a way that the margin of the exchange matrix coincides with the regional weights. Exchange matrices generate in turn diffusive squared Euclidean dissimilarities, measuring spatial remoteness between pairs of regions. Unweighted and weighted spatial frameworks are reviewed and compared, regarding in particular their impact on permutation and normal tests of spatial autocorrelation. Applications include tests of spatial autocorrelation with diagonal weights, factorial visualization of the network of regions, multivariate generalizations of Moran's I, as well as "landscape clustering", aimed at creating regional aggregates both spatially contiguous and endowed with similar features

Livestock trade networks for guiding animal health surveillance

BACKGROUND: Trade in live animals can contribute to the introduction of exotic diseases, the maintenance and spread endemic diseases. Annually millions of animals are moved across Europe for the purposes of breeding, fattening and slaughter. Data on the number of animals moved were obtained from the Directorate General Sanco (DG Sanco) for 2011. These were converted to livestock units to enable direct comparison across species and their movements were mapped, used to calculate the indegrees and outdegrees of 27 European countries and the density and transitivity of movements within Europe. This provided the opportunity to discuss surveillance of European livestock movement taking into account stopping points en-route. RESULTS: High density and transitivity of movement for registered equines, breeding and fattening cattle, breeding poultry and pigs for breeding, fattening and slaughter indicates that hazards have the potential to spread quickly within these populations. This is of concern to highly connected countries particularly those where imported animals constitute a large proportion of their national livestock populations, and have a high indegree. The transport of poultry (older than 72 hours) and unweaned animals would require more rest breaks than the movement of weaned animals, which may provide more opportunities for disease transmission. Transitivity is greatest for animals transported for breeding purposes with cattle, pigs and poultry having values of over 50%. CONCLUSIONS: This paper demonstrated that some species (pigs and poultry) are traded much more frequently and at a larger scale than species such as goats. Some countries are more vulnerable than others due to importing animals from many countries, having imported animals requiring rest-breaks and importing large proportions of their national herd or flock. Such knowledge about the vulnerability of different livestock systems related to trade movements can be used to inform the design of animal health surveillance systems to facilitate the trade in animals between European member states. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0354-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Evidence for Batesian mimicry in a polymorphic hoverfly

Palatable Batesian mimics are avoided by predators because they resemble noxious or defended species. The striking resemblance of many hoverflies to noxious Hymenoptera is a “textbook” example of Batesian mimicry, but evidence that selection by predators has shaped the evolution of hoverfly patterns is weak. We looked for geographical and temporal trends in frequencies of morphs of the polymorphic hoverfly Volucella bombylans that would support the hypothesis that these morphs are Batesian mimics of different bumblebee species. The frequency of the black and yellow hoverfly morph was significantly positively related to the frequency of black and yellow bumblebees across 52 sites. Similarly, the frequency of the red-tailed hoverfly morph was positively related to the frequency of red-tailed bumblebees. However, the frequencies of hoverfly morphs were positively spatially autocorrelated, and after controlling for this, only one of the two common hoverfly morphs showed a significant positive relationship with its putative model. We conclude that the distribution of V. bombylans morphs probably reflects geographical variation in selection by predators resulting from differences in the frequencies of noxious bumblebee species

Extreme behavioural shifts by baboons exploiting risky, resource-rich, human-modified environments

Abstract A range of species exploit anthropogenic food resources in behaviour known as ‘raiding’. Such behavioural flexibility is considered a central component of a species’ ability to cope with human-induced environmental changes. Here, we study the behavioural processes by which raiding male chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) exploit the opportunities and mitigate the risks presented by raiding in the suburbs of Cape Town, South Africa. Ecological sampling and interviews conducted with ‘rangers’ (employed to manage the baboons’ space use) revealed that baboons are at risk of being herded out of urban spaces that contain high-energy anthropogenic food sources. Baboon-attached motion/GPS tracking collars showed that raiding male baboons spent almost all of their time at the urban edge, engaging in short, high-activity forays into the urban space. Moreover, activity levels were increased where the likelihood of deterrence by rangers was greater. Overall, these raiding baboons display a time-activity balance that is drastically altered in comparison to individuals living in more remote regions. We suggest our methods can be used to obtain precise estimates of management impact for this and other species in conflict with people

Impacts of habitat heterogeneity on the provision of multiple ecosystem services in a temperate floodplain

The relationships between habitat heterogeneity and the provision of multiple ecosystem services are not well understood. This study investigates the impacts of heterogeneity in surface floodwater inundation on the productive efficiency of ecosystem service provision, and the degree to which the relative provision of these ecosystem services is evenly balanced. We analyse indicators of five services. Field data from 100 floodplain quadrats were first analysed to investigate relationships between ecosystem service indicators and floodplain hydrology. Floodplain mosaics of varying hydrological heterogeneity were then simulated using the empirical data. Simulated floodplains with higher hydrological heterogeneity were generally less efficient in providing the target indicators, because they were adapted to the particular hydrological ranges which best provided the target services. Simulated floodplains that were more heterogeneous generally provided more even levels of the target indicators by segregating provision into different habitat types. Heterogeneity in floodplain hydrology may help to balance provision of multiple ecosystem services. However, management of hydrological heterogeneity to achieve this requires a detailed understanding of the relationships between each service and habitat conditions

Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

Many of the world's languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk—represented by small range and speaker population sizes and rapid declines in the number of speakers—and identify the underlying environmental and socioeconomic drivers. We show that both small range and speaker population sizes are associated with rapid declines in speaker numbers, causing 25% of existing languages to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines. However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth

Movement reveals reproductive tactics in male elephants

1. Long‐term bio‐logging has the potential to reveal how movements, and hence life‐history trade‐offs, vary over a lifetime. Reproductive tactics in particular may vary as individuals' trade‐off current investment versus lifetime fitness. Male African savanna elephants (Loxodona africana) provide a telling example of balancing body growth with reproductive fitness due to the combination of indeterminate growth and strongly delineated periods of sexual activity (musth), which results in reproductive tactics that alter with age. 2. Our study aims to quantify the extent to which male elephants alter their movement patterns, and hence energetic allocation, in relation to (a) reproductive state and (b) age, and (c) to determine whether musth periods can be detected directly from GPS tracking data. 3. We used a combination of GPS tracking data and visual observations of 25 male elephants ranging in age from 20 to 52 years to examine the influence of reproductive state and age on movement. We then used a three‐state hidden Markov model (HMM) to detect musth behaviour in a subset of sequential tracking data. 4. Our results demonstrate that male elephants increased their daily mean speed and range size with age and in musth. Furthermore, non‐musth speed decreased with age, presumably reflecting a shift towards energy acquisition during non‐musth. Thus, despite similar speeds and marginally larger ranges between reproductive states at age 20, by age 50, males were travelling 2.0 times faster in a 3.5 times larger area in musth relative to non‐musth. The distinctiveness of musth periods over age 35 meant the three‐state HMM could automatically detect musth movement with high sensitivity and specificity, but could not for the younger age class. 5. We show that male elephants increased their energetic allocation into reproduction with age as the probability of reproductive success increases. Given that older male elephants tend to be both the target of legal trophy hunting and illegal poaching, man‐made interference could drive fundamental changes in elephant reproductive tactics. Bio‐logging, as our study reveals, has the potential both to quantify mature elephant reproductive tactics remotely and to be used to institute proactive management strategies around the reproductive behaviour of this charismatic keystone species

Precipitation Constrains Amphibian Chytrid Fungus Infection Rates in a Terrestrial Frog Assemblage in Jamaica, West Indies

We model Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) infection rates in Jamaican frogs—one of the most threatened amphibian fauna in the world. The majority of species we surveyed were terrestrial direct‐developing frogs or frogs that breed in tank bromeliads, rather than those that use permanent water bodies to breed. Thus, we were able to investigate the climatic correlates of Bd infection in a frog assemblage that does not rely on permanent water bodies. We sampled frogs for Bd across all of the major habitat types on the island, used machine learning algorithms to identify climatic variables that are correlated with infection rates, and extrapolated infection rates across the island. We compared the effectiveness of the machine learning algorithms for species distribution modeling in the context of our study, and found that infection rate rose quickly with precipitation in the driest month. Infection rates also increased with mean temperature in the warmest quarter until 22 °C, and remained relatively level thereafter. Both of these results are in accordance with previous studies of the physiology of Bd . Based on our environmental results, we suggest that frogs occupying high‐precipitation habitats with cool rainy‐season temperatures, though zcurrently experiencing low frequencies of infection, may experience an increase in infection rates as global warming increases temperatures in their habitat.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106115/1/btp12093.pd