Forecasting Cross-section Stock Returns using the Present Value Model

We contribute to the debate over whether forecastable stock returns reflect anunexploited profit opportunity or rationally reflect risk differentials. We test whetheragents could earn excess returns by selecting stocks which have a low market pricecompared to an estimate of the fundamental value obtained from the present valuemodel. The criterion for stock picking is one which could actually have beenimplemented by agents in real time. We show that statistically significant, andquantitatively substantial, excess returns are delivered by portfolios of stocks whichare cheap relative to our estimate of fundamental value. There is no evidence that theunder priced stocks are relatively risky and hence excess returns cannot easily beinterpreted as an equilibrium compensation for risk

Order and disorder in columnar joints

Columnar joints are three-dimensional fracture networks that form in cooling basalt and several other media. The network organizes itself into ordered, mostly hexagonal columns. The same pattern can be observed on a smaller scale in desiccating starch. We show how surface boundary conditions in the desiccation of starch affect the formation of columnar joints. Under constant drying power conditions, we find a power law dependence of columnar cross-sectional area with depth, while under constant drying rate conditions this coarsening is eventually halted. Discontinuous transitions in pattern scale can be observed under constant external conditions, which may prompt a reinterpretation of similar transitions found in basalt. Starch patterns are statistically similar to those found in basalt, suggesting that mature columnar jointing patterns contain inherent residual disorder, but are statistically scale invariant

Cardiopulmonary assessment of patients with systemic sclerosis for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: recommendations from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Autoimmune Diseases Working Party and collaborating partners.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a rare disabling autoimmune disease with a similar mortality to many cancers. Two randomized controlled trials of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) for SSc have shown significant improvement in organ function, quality of life and long-term survival compared to standard therapy. However, transplant-related mortality (TRM) ranged from 3-10% in patients undergoing HSCT. In SSc, the main cause of non-transplant and TRM is cardiac related. We therefore updated the previously published guidelines for cardiac evaluation, which should be performed in dedicated centers with expertize in HSCT for SSc. The current recommendations are based on pre-transplant cardiopulmonary evaluations combining pulmonary function tests, echocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and invasive hemodynamic testing, initiated at Northwestern University (Chicago) and subsequently discussed and endorsed within the EBMT ADWP in 2016

On the Membership of DecisionMaking Committees

Abstract: The decision of a committee is determined jointly by the voting process it adopts and the composition of its membership. The paper analyses the process through which committee members emerge from the eligible population and traces the consequences of this for the decisions of the committee. It is shown that the equilibrium committee will be composed of representatives from the extremes of the taste distribution. These extremes balance each other and the committee reaches a moderate decision. However, this mutual negation by the extremes is a socially wasteful use of time. Data from the UK House of Lords is used to illustrate these results

Inhibitory Effects of Prior Low-dose X-irradiation on Ischemia-reperfusion Injury in Mouse Paw

We have reported that low-dose, unlike high-dose, irradiation enhanced antioxidation function and reduced oxidative damage. On the other hand, ischemia-reperfusion injury is induced by reactive oxygen species. In this study, we examined the inhibitory effects of prior low-dose X-irradiation on ischemia-reperfusion injury in mouse paw. BALB/c mice were irradiated by sham or 0.5 Gy of X-ray. At 4 hrs after irradiation, the left hind leg was bound 10 times with a rubber ring for 0.5, 1, or 2 hrs and the paw thickness was measured. Results show that the paw swelling thickness by ischemia for 0.5 hr was lower than that for 2 hrs. At 1 hr after reperfusion from ischemia for 1 hr, superoxide dismutase activity in serum was increased in those mice which received 0.5 Gy irradiation and in the case of the ischemia for 0.5 or 1 hr, the paw swelling thicknesses were inhibited by 0.5 Gy irradiation. In addition, interstitial edema in those mice which received 0.5 Gy irradiation was less than that in the mice which underwent by sham irradiation. These findings suggest that the ischemia-reperfusion injury is inhibited by the enhancement of antioxidation function by 0.5 Gy irradiation

Habitat Associations of Fish Species of Greatest Conservation Need at Multiple Spatial Scales in Wadeable Iowa Streams

Fish and habitat data were collected from 84 wadeable stream reaches in the Mississippi River drainage of Iowa to predict the occurrences of seven fish species of greatest conservation need and to identify the relative importance of habitat variables measured at small (e.g., depth, velocity, and substrate) and large (e.g., stream order, elevation, and gradient) scales in terms of their influence on species occurrences. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to predict fish species occurrences, starting with all possible combinations of variables (5 large-scale variables, 13 small-scale variables, and all 18 variables) but limiting the final models to a maximum of five variables. Akaike’s information criterion was used to rank candidate models, weight model parameters, and calculate model-averaged predictions. On average, the correct classification rate (CCR = 80%) and Cohen’s kappa (κ = 0.59) were greatest for multiple-scale models (i.e., those including both large-scale and small-scale variables), intermediate for small-scale models (CCR = 75%; κ = 0.49), and lowest for large-scale models (CCR = 73%; κ = 0.44). The occurrence of each species was associated with a unique combination of large-scale and small-scale variables. Our results support the necessity of understanding factors that constrain the distribution of fishes across spatial scales to ensure that management decisions and actions occur at the appropriate scale

Robotics and automation in the city: a research agenda

Globally cities are becoming experimental sites for new forms of robotic and automation technologies applied across a wide variety of sectors in multiple areas of economic and social life. As these innovations leave the laboratory and factory, this paper analyses how robotics and automation systems are being layered upon existing urban digital networks, extending the capabilities and capacities of human agency and infrastructure networks, and reshaping the city and citizen’s everyday experiences. To date, most work in this field has been speculative and isolated in nature. We set out a research agenda that goes beyond analysis of discrete applications and effects, to investigate how robotics and automation connect across urban domains and the implications for: differential urban geographies, the selective enhancement of individuals and collective management of infrastructures, the socio-spatial sorting of cities and the potential for responsible urban innovation

Fish Assemblage Relationships with Physical Habitat in Wadeable Iowa Streams

Fish assemblages play a key role in stream ecosystems and are influenced by physical habitat. We analyzed fish assemblages and physical habitat at 93 randomly selected sites on second- through fifth-order wadeable Iowa streams to explore fish assemblage relationships with reach-scale physical habitat in this agriculturally dominated landscape. Sites were sampled using DC electrofishing and the wadeable streams physical habitat protocol of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency\u27s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program. In all, 82 species were collected, with species richness at sites averaging 14. Over 80% of the sites had fish assemblages rated as fair (53%) or poor (32%) based on a fish index of biotic integrity (FIBI). Ordination separated sites from the two major river drainages along an axis of impairment, with sites in the Missouri River drainage exhibiting lower FIBI scores than sites in the Mississippi River drainage. Physical habitat at most sites exhibited fine substrates, eroding banks, and low-gradient, nonmeandering channel and was dominated by glides. Thirty physical habitat variables describing channel morphology, channel cross section and bank morphology, fish cover, human disturbance, large woody debris, relative bed stability, residual pool, riparian vegetation, and substrate differed significantly between sites with FIBI scores rated as poor and those with FIBI scores rated as good or excellent. Eighteen physical habitat variables were significant predictors of fish assemblage metrics and FIBI in multiple linear regression models, with adjusted R 2 values ranging from 0.12 to 0.58. Seventy percent of the model coefficients reflected substrate (40%), residual pool (21%), and fish cover (9%) variables. Fish assemblages in wadeable Iowa streams are strongly associated with the quality of physical habitat. Thus, understanding and addressing the determinants of physical habitat are crucial for managing streams in Iowa and other agricultural regions