The dynamic effects of currency union on trade

A currency union’s ability to increase international trade is one of the most debated questions in international macroeconomics. This paper studies the dynamics of these trade effects over time. First, empirical work with data from the European Monetary Union finds that the extensive margin of trade (entry of new firms or goods) responds several years ahead of overall trade volume and actual implementation of the monetary union. This implies a fall at the intensive margin (previously traded goods) in the run-up to EMU. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of trade studies the announcement of a future monetary union as a news shock lowering future trade costs, and finds that the early entry of new firms in anticipation is explainable as a rational forward-looking response under certain conditions. Required elements are sunk costs of exporting and ex-ante heterogeneity among firms. The findings help identify which types of trading frictions are reduced by adopting a currency union. Findings also indicate that a significant fraction of the welfare gains from a monetary union are based upon expectations for the future, so that continued gains depend upon long-term credibility of the union

On Conditional Statistics in Scalar Turbulence: Theory vs. Experiment

We consider turbulent advection of a scalar field T(\B.r), passive or active, and focus on the statistics of gradient fields conditioned on scalar differences $\Delta T(R)$ across a scale $R$. In particular we focus on two conditional averages $\langle\nabla^2 T\big|\Delta T(R)\rangle$ and $\langle|\nabla T|^2\big|\Delta T(R) \rangle$. We find exact relations between these averages, and with the help of the fusion rules we propose a general representation for these objects in terms of the probability density function $P(\Delta T,R)$ of $\Delta T(R)$. These results offer a new way to analyze experimental data that is presented in this paper. The main question that we ask is whether the conditional average $\langle\nabla^2 T\big| \Delta T(R)\rangle$ is linear in $\Delta T$. We show that there exists a dimensionless parameter which governs the deviation from linearity. The data analysis indicates that this parameter is very small for passive scalar advection, and is generally a decreasing function of the Rayleigh number for the convection data.Comment: Phys. Rev. E, Submitted. REVTeX, 10 pages, 5 figs. (not included) PS Source of the paper with figure available at http://lvov.weizmann.ac.il/onlinelist.html#unpub

POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF RICE VARIETY AND WATER MANAGEMENT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST

The welfare benefits from potential rice yield-enhancing and water-saving research programs and their distributional implications under alternative farm program provisions are compared. This is done in an ex ante surplus maximization framework by using a multiregional, price endogenous mathematical programming model of U.S. agriculture. The simulation results indicate that government price support policies have profound impacts on the distribution of research benefits and distort interest group incentives and rankings for allocation of resources to research.Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Search for CII Emission on Cosmological Scales at Redshift Z~2.6

We present a search for CII emission over cosmological scales at high-redshifts. The CII line is a prime candidate to be a tracer of star formation over large-scale structure since it is one of the brightest emission lines from galaxies. Redshifted CII emission appears in the submillimeter regime, meaning it could potentially be present in the higher frequency intensity data from the Planck satellite used to measure the cosmic infrared background (CIB). We search for CII emission over redshifts z=2-3.2 in the Planck 545 GHz intensity map by cross-correlating the 3 highest frequency Planck maps with spectroscopic quasars and CMASS galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III), which we then use to jointly fit for CII intensity, CIB parameters, and thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) emission. We report a measurement of an anomalous emission $\mathrm{I_\nu}=6.6^{+5.0}_{-4.8}\times10^4$ Jy/sr at 95% confidence, which could be explained by CII emission, favoring collisional excitation models of CII emission that tend to be more optimistic than models based on CII luminosity scaling relations from local measurements; however, a comparison of Bayesian information criteria reveal that this model and the CIB & SZ only model are equally plausible. Thus, more sensitive measurements will be needed to confirm the existence of large-scale CII emission at high redshifts. Finally, we forecast that intensity maps from Planck cross-correlated with quasars from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) would increase our sensitivity to CII emission by a factor of 5, while the proposed Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE) could increase the sensitivity further.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, published in MNRA

The Constraints and Spectra of a Deformed Quantum Mechanics

We examine a deformed quantum mechanics in which the commutator between coordinates and momenta is a function of momenta. The Jacobi identity constraint on a two-parameter class of such modified commutation relations (MCR's) shows that they encode an intrinsic maximum momentum; a sub-class of which also imply a minimum position uncertainty. Maximum momentum causes the bound state spectrum of the one-dimensional harmonic oscillator to terminate at finite energy, whereby classical characteristics are observed for the studied cases. We then use a semi-classical analysis to discuss general concave potentials in one dimension and isotropic power-law potentials in higher dimensions. Among other conclusions, we find that in a subset of the studied MCR's, the leading order energy shifts of bound states are of opposite sign compared to those obtained using string-theory motivated MCR's, and thus these two cases are more easily distinguishable in potential experiments.Comment: 30 pages inclusive of 7 figure

A Simple Passive Scalar Advection-Diffusion Model

This paper presents a simple, one-dimensional model of a randomly advected passive scalar. The model exhibits anomalous inertial range scaling for the structure functions constructed from scalar differences. The model provides a simple computational test for recent ideas regarding closure and scaling for randomly advected passive scalars. Results suggest that high order structure function scaling depends on the largest velocity eddy size, and hence scaling exponents may be geometry-dependent and non-universal.Comment: 30 pages, 11 figure

Free wake analysis of hover performance using a new influence coefficient method

A new approach to the prediction of helicopter rotor performance using a free wake analysis was developed. This new method uses a relaxation process that does not suffer from the convergence problems associated with previous time marching simulations. This wake relaxation procedure was coupled to a vortex-lattice, lifting surface loads analysis to produce a novel, self contained performance prediction code: EHPIC (Evaluation of Helicopter Performance using Influence Coefficients). The major technical features of the EHPIC code are described and a substantial amount of background information on the capabilities and proper operation of the code is supplied. Sample problems were undertaken to demonstrate the robustness and flexibility of the basic approach. Also, a performance correlation study was carried out to establish the breadth of applicability of the code, with very favorable results

Intensity Mapping with Carbon Monoxide Emission Lines and the Redshifted 21 cm Line

We quantify the prospects for using emission lines from rotational transitions of the CO molecule to perform an `intensity mapping' observation at high redshift during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). The aim of CO intensity mapping is to observe the combined CO emission from many unresolved galaxies, to measure the spatial fluctuations in this emission, and use this as a tracer of large scale structure at very early times in the history of our Universe. This measurement would help determine the properties of molecular clouds -- the sites of star formation -- in the very galaxies that reionize the Universe. We further consider the possibility of cross-correlating CO intensity maps with future observations of the redshifted 21 cm line. The cross spectrum is less sensitive to foreground contamination than the auto power spectra, and can therefore help confirm the high redshift origin of each signal. Furthermore, the cross spectrum measurement would help extract key information about the EoR, especially regarding the size distribution of ionized regions. We discuss uncertainties in predicting the CO signal at high redshift, and discuss strategies for improving these predictions. Under favorable assumptions, and feasible specifications for a CO survey mapping the CO(2-1) and CO(1-0) lines, the power spectrum of CO emission fluctuations and its cross spectrum with future 21 cm measurements from the MWA are detectable at high significance.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Ap