Evaluation of subsidence induced by long-lasting buildings load using InSAR technique and geotechnical data: The case study of a Freight Terminal (Tuscany, Italy)

This paper shows the results of the comparison between Multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (MTInSAR) products derived from different sensors (C-band ERS 1/2, Envisat, Sentinel-1 and X-band COSMO-SkyMed) and geotechnical data to investigate the driving factors of subsidence which affect a freight terminal located along the a coastal plain of Tuscany (central Italy). MTInSAR data have been acquired in a very long period, between 1992 and 2018 and were analyzed in terms of subsidence rates and deformation time series at building scale. The obtained results show that the oldest buildings are still affected by a deformation rate close to −5 mm/yr, whereas recent buildings register rates around −40 mm/yr. Time series of deformation suggest that the deformation rates decrease over time following time-dependent trend that approximates the typical consolidation curve for compressible soils. The geotechnical and stratigraphical analysis of the subsurface data (boreholes, cone penetration tests and dilatometer tests) highlights the presence of a 15 m thick layer formed of clay characterized by poor geotechnical characteristics. The comparison among InSAR data, subsurface geological framework and geotechnical reconstruction suggests a possible evaluation of the timing of the primary and secondary consolidation processes

Ground Subsidence Susceptibility (GSS) mapping in Grosseto plain (Tuscany, Italy) based on satellite InSAR data using frequency ratio and fuzzy logic

This study aimed at evaluating and mapping Ground Subsidence Susceptibility (GSS) in the Grosseto plain (Tuscany Region, Italy) by exploiting multi-temporal satellite InSAR data and by applying two parallel approaches; a bivariate statistical analysis (Frequency Ratio) and a mathematical probabilistic model (Fuzzy Logic operator). The Grosseto plain experienced subsidence and sinkholes due to natural causes in the past and it is still suffering slow-moving ground lowering. Five conditioning subsidence-related factors were selected and managed in a GIS environment through an overlay pixel-by-pixel analysis. Firstly, multi-temporal ground subsidence inventory maps were prepared in the study area by starting from two inventories referred to distinct temporal intervals (2003–2009 and 2014–2019) derived from Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI) data of ENVISAT and SENTINEL-1 satellites. Then, the susceptibility modelling was performed through the Frequency Ratio (FR) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) approaches. These analyses led to slightly different scenarios which were compared and discussed. Results show that flat areas on alluvial and colluvial deposits with thick sedimentary cover (higher than 20 m) on the bedrock in the central and eastern sectors of the plain are the most susceptible to land subsidence. The obtained FR- and FL-based GSS maps were finally validated with a ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis, in order to estimate the overall performance of the models. The AUC (Area Under Curve) values of ROC analysis of the FR model were higher than the ones of FL model, suggesting that the former is a better and more appropriate predictor for subsidence susceptibility analysis in the study area. In conclusion, GSS maps provided a qualitative overview of the subsidence scenarios and may be helpful to predict and preliminarily identify high-risk areas for environmental local authorities and decision makers in charge of land use planning in the study area. Finally, the presented methodologies to derive GSS maps are easily reproducible and could also be applied and tested in other test sites worldwide, in order to check the modeling performance in different environmental settings

Soil erosion in a British watershed under climate change as predicted using convection-permitting regional climate projections

Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km (‘convection-permitting’) regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the “Rother” catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha−1 y−1 and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods

INNODIA Master Protocol for the evaluation of investigational medicinal products in children, adolescents and adults with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes

Background The INNODIA consortium has established a pan-European infrastructure using validated centres to prospectively evaluate clinical data from individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes combined with centralised collection of clinical samples to determine rates of decline in beta-cell function and identify novel biomarkers, which could be used for future stratification of phase 2 clinical trials. Methods In this context, we have developed a Master Protocol, based on the “backbone” of the INNODIA natural history study, which we believe could improve the delivery of phase 2 studies exploring the use of single or combinations of Investigational Medicinal Products (IMPs), designed to prevent or reverse declines in beta-cell function in individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Although many IMPs have demonstrated potential efficacy in phase 2 studies, few subsequent phase 3 studies have confirmed these benefits. Currently, phase 2 drug development for this indication is limited by poor evaluation of drug dosage and lack of mechanistic data to understand variable responses to the IMPs. Identification of biomarkers which might permit more robust stratification of participants at baseline has been slow. Discussion The Master Protocol provides (1) standardised assessment of efficacy and safety, (2) comparable collection of mechanistic data, (3) the opportunity to include adaptive designs and the use of shared control groups in the evaluation of combination therapies, and (4) benefits of greater understanding of endpoint variation to ensure more robust sample size calculations and future baseline stratification using existing and novel biomarkers