Estimating the microbiological risks associated with inland flood events:bridging theory and models of pathogen transport

Flooding is known to facilitate infectious disease transmission, yet quantitative research on microbiological risks associated with floods has been limited. Pathogen fate and transport models provide a framework to examine interactions between landscape characteristics, hydrology, and waterborne disease risks, but have not been widely developed for flood conditions. We critically examine capabilities of current hydrological models to represent unusual flow paths, non-uniform flow depths, and unsteady flow velocities that accompany flooding. We investigate the theoretical linkages between hydrodynamic processes and spatio-temporally variable suspension and deposition of pathogens from soils and sediments; pathogen dispersion in flow; and concentrations of constituents influencing pathogen transport and persistence. Identifying gaps in knowledge and modeling practice, we propose a research agenda to strengthen microbial fate and transport modeling applied to inland floods: 1) development of models incorporating pathogen discharges from flooded sources (e.g., latrines), effects of transported constituents on pathogen persistence, and supply-limited pathogen transport; 2) studies assessing parameter identifiability and comparing model performance under varying degrees of process representation, in a range of settings; 3) development of remotely sensed datasets to support modeling of vulnerable, data-poor regions; and 4) collaboration between modelers and field-based researchers to expand the collection of useful data in situ

Coccidioidomycosis seasonality in California: a longitudinal surveillance study of the climate determinants and spatiotemporal variability of seasonal dynamics, 2000–2021

BackgroundCoccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the western USA, exhibits seasonal patterns that are poorly understood, including periods of strong cyclicity, aseasonal intervals, and variation in seasonal timing that have been minimally characterized, and unexplained as to their causal factors. Coccidioidomycosis incidence has increased markedly in recent years, and our limited understanding of intra- and inter-annual seasonality has hindered the identification of important drivers of disease transmission, including climate conditions. In this study, we aim to characterize coccidioidomycosis seasonality in endemic regions of California and to estimate the relationship between drought conditions and coccidioidomycosis seasonal periodicity and timing.MethodsWe analysed data on all reported incident cases of coccidioidomycosis in California from 2000 to 2021 to characterize seasonal patterns in incidence, and conducted wavelet analyses to assess the dominant periodicity, power, and timing of incidence for 17 counties with consistently high incidence rates. We assessed associations between seasonality parameters and measures of drought in California using a distributed lag nonlinear modelling framework.FindingsAll counties exhibited annual cyclicity in incidence (i.e., a dominant wavelet periodicity of 12 months), but there was considerable heterogeneity in seasonal strength and timing across regions and years. On average, 12-month periodicity was most pronounced in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and Central Coast. Further, the annual seasonal cycles in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and the Southern Inland regions occurred earlier than those in coastal and northern counties, yet the timing of annual cycles became more aligned among counties by the end of the study period. Drought conditions were associated with a strong attenuation of the annual seasonal cycle, and seasonal peaks became more pronounced in the 1-2 years after a drought ended.InterpretationWe conclude that drought conditions do not increase the risk of coccidioidomycosis onset uniformly across the year, but instead promote increased risk concentrated within a specific calendar period (September to December). The findings have important implications for public health preparedness, and for how future shifts in seasonal climate patterns and extreme events may impact spatial and temporal coccidioidomycosis risk.FundingNational Institutes of Health

Home birth without skilled attendants despite millennium villages project intervention in Ghana: insight from a survey of women’s perceptions of skilled obstetric care

BACKGROUND: Skilled birth attendance from a trained health professional during labour and delivery can prevent up to 75 % of maternal deaths. However, in low- and middle-income rural communities, lack of basic medical infrastructure and limited number of skilled birth attendants are significant barriers to timely obstetric care. Through analysis of self-reported data, this study aimed to assess the effect of an intervention addressing barriers in access to skilled obstetric care and identified factors associated with the use of unskilled birth attendants during delivery in a rural district of Ghana. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted from June to August 2012 in the Amansie West District of Ghana among women of reproductive age. Multi-stage, random, and population proportional techniques were used to sample 50 communities and 400 women for data collection. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with place of delivery. RESULTS: A total of 391 mothers had attended an antenatal care clinic at least once for their most recent birth; 42.3 % of them had unskilled deliveries. Reasons reported for the use of unskilled birth attendants during delivery were: insults from health workers (23.5 %), unavailability of transport (21.9 %), and confidence in traditional birth attendants (17.9 %); only 7.4 % reported to have had sudden labour. Other factors associated with the use of unskilled birth attendants during delivery included: lack of partner involvement aOR = 0.03 (95 % CI; 0.01, 0.06), lack of birth preparedness aOR = 0.05 (95 % CI; 0.02, 0.13) and lack of knowledge of the benefits of skilled delivery aOR = 0.37 (95 % CI; 0.11, 1.20). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the importance of provider-client relationship and cultural sensitivity in the efforts to improve skilled obstetric care uptake among rural women in Ghana

American Bowling Congress, Bowling Tournament, Milwaukee, Wis.

Copyright claimant's address: Chicago.Copyright deposit; Geo. R. Lawrence Co.; April 3, 1905

American Bowling Congress, Milwaukee, Wis.

Copyright claimant's address: Chicago.On front: "Courtcy [sic] of Brunswick Balke Collender Co."Copyright deposit; Geo. R. Lawrence Co.; April 3, 1905

Estimating the microbiological risks associated with inland flood events:bridging theory and models of pathogen transport

Flooding is known to facilitate infectious disease transmission, yet quantitative research on microbiological risks associated with floods has been limited. Pathogen fate and transport models provide a framework to examine interactions between landscape characteristics, hydrology, and waterborne disease risks, but have not been widely developed for flood conditions. We critically examine capabilities of current hydrological models to represent unusual flow paths, non-uniform flow depths, and unsteady flow velocities that accompany flooding. We investigate the theoretical linkages between hydrodynamic processes and spatio-temporally variable suspension and deposition of pathogens from soils and sediments; pathogen dispersion in flow; and concentrations of constituents influencing pathogen transport and persistence. Identifying gaps in knowledge and modeling practice, we propose a research agenda to strengthen microbial fate and transport modeling applied to inland floods: 1) development of models incorporating pathogen discharges from flooded sources (e.g., latrines), effects of transported constituents on pathogen persistence, and supply-limited pathogen transport; 2) studies assessing parameter identifiability and comparing model performance under varying degrees of process representation, in a range of settings; 3) development of remotely sensed datasets to support modeling of vulnerable, data-poor regions; and 4) collaboration between modelers and field-based researchers to expand the collection of useful data in situ

Estimating the microbiological risks associated with inland flood events: Bridging theory and models of pathogen transport.

Flooding is known to facilitate infectious disease transmission, yet quantitative research on microbiological risks associated with floods has been limited. Pathogen fate and transport models provide a framework to examine interactions between landscape characteristics, hydrology, and waterborne disease risks, but have not been widely developed for flood conditions. We critically examine capabilities of current hydrological models to represent unusual flow paths, non-uniform flow depths, and unsteady flow velocities that accompany flooding. We investigate the theoretical linkages between hydrodynamic processes and spatio-temporally variable suspension and deposition of pathogens from soils and sediments; pathogen dispersion in flow; and concentrations of constituents influencing pathogen transport and persistence. Identifying gaps in knowledge and modeling practice, we propose a research agenda to strengthen microbial fate and transport modeling applied to inland floods: 1) development of models incorporating pathogen discharges from flooded sources (e.g., latrines), effects of transported constituents on pathogen persistence, and supply-limited pathogen transport; 2) studies assessing parameter identifiability and comparing model performance under varying degrees of process representation, in a range of settings; 3) development of remotely sensed datasets to support modeling of vulnerable, data-poor regions; and 4) collaboration between modelers and field-based researchers to expand the collection of useful data in situ