Incorporating weather information into real-time speed estimates: comparison of alternative models

Weather information is frequently requested by travelers. Prior literature indicates that inclement weather is one of the most important factors contributing to traffic congestion and crashes. In this paper, we propose a methodology to use real-time weather information to predict future speeds. The reason for doing so is to ultimately have the capability to disseminate weather-responsive travel time estimates to those requesting information. Using a stratified sampling technique, we select cases with different weather conditions (precipitation levels) and use a linear regression model (called the base model) and a statistical learning model (using Support Vector Machines for Regression) to predict 30-minute ahead speeds. One of the major inputs into a weather-responsive short-term speed prediction method is weather forecasts; however, weather forecasts may themselves be inaccurate. We assess the effects of such inaccuracies by means of simulations. The predictive accuracy of the SVR models show that statistical learning methods may be useful in bringing together streaming forecasted weather data and real-time information on downstream traffic conditions to enable travelers to make informed choices

Optimizing passive acoustic sampling of bats in forests

Passive acoustic methods are increasingly used in biodiversity research and monitoring programs because they are cost-effective and permit the collection of large datasets. However, the accuracy of the results depends on the bioacoustic characteristics of the focal taxa and their habitat use. In particular, this applies to bats which exhibit distinct activity patterns in three-dimensionally structured habitats such as forests. We assessed the performance of 21 acoustic sampling schemes with three temporal sampling patterns and seven sampling designs. Acoustic sampling was performed in 32 forest plots, each containing three microhabitats: forest ground, canopy, and forest gap. We compared bat activity, species richness, and sampling effort using species accumulation curves fitted with the clench equation. In addition, we estimated the sampling costs to undertake the best sampling schemes. We recorded a total of 145,433 echolocation call sequences of 16 bat species. Our results indicated that to generate the best outcome, it was necessary to sample all three microhabitats of a given forest location simultaneously throughout the entire night. Sampling only the forest gaps and the forest ground simultaneously was the second best choice and proved to be a viable alternative when the number of available detectors is limited. When assessing bat species richness at the 1-km(2) scale, the implementation of these sampling schemes at three to four forest locations yielded highest labor cost-benefit ratios but increasing equipment costs. Our study illustrates that multiple passive acoustic sampling schemes require testing based on the target taxa and habitat complexity and should be performed with reference to cost-benefit ratios. Choosing a standardized and replicated sampling scheme is particularly important to optimize the level of precision in inventories, especially when rare or elusive species are expected

The international symposia on career development and public policy: retrospect and prospect

Between 1999 and 2011, seven international symposia on career development and public policy were held at various venues across the world, and an International Centre was established to support and maintain continuity between these events. These developments were closely intertwined with a number of other significant international developments. The origins of the symposia are described; their core design features are defined; their evolution is outlined and reviewed; and their impact is assessed. This article concludes with a discussion of the prospects for future symposia and for the International Centre

Headwaters are critical reservoirs of microbial diversity for fluvial networks

Streams and rivers form conspicuous networks on the Earth and are among nature's most effective integrators. Their dendritic structure reaches into the terrestrial landscape and accumulates water and sediment en route from abundant headwater streams to a single river mouth. The prevailing view over the last decades has been that biological diversity also accumulates downstream. Here, we show that this pattern does not hold for fluvial biofilms, which are the dominant mode of microbial life in streams and rivers and which fulfil critical ecosystem functions therein. Using 454 pyrosequencing on benthic biofilms from 114 streams, we found that microbial diversity decreased from headwaters downstream and especially at confluences. We suggest that the local environment and biotic interactions may modify the influence of metacommunity connectivity on local biofilm biodiversity throughout the network. In addition, there was a high degree of variability in species composition among headwater streams that could not be explained by geographical distance between catchments. This suggests that the dendritic nature of fluvial networks constrains the distributional patterns of microbial diversity similar to that of animals. Our observations highlight the contributions that headwaters make in the maintenance of microbial biodiversity in fluvial networks

Habitual accountability routines in the boardroom: How boards balance control and collaboration

open3siCorporate accountability is a complex chain of reporting that reaches from external stakeholders into the organization’s management structure. The transition from external to internal accountability mechanisms primarily occurs at the board of directors. Yet outside of incentive mechanisms, we know surprisingly little about how internal actors (management) are held to account by the representatives of external shareholders (the board). This paper explores the process of accountability at this transition point by documenting the routines used by boards to hold the firm’s management to account. In so doing we develop our understanding of the important transition between internal and external firm accountability.embargoed_20190401Nicholson, Gavin; Pugliese, Amedeo; Bezemer, Pieter JanNicholson, Gavin; Pugliese, Amedeo; Bezemer, Pieter Ja

High-severity wildfire leads to multi-decadal impacts on soil biogeochemistry in mixed-conifer forests.

During the past century, systematic wildfire suppression has decreased fire frequency and increased fire severity in the western United States of America. While this has resulted in large ecological changes aboveground such as altered tree species composition and increased forest density, little is known about the long-term, belowground implications of altered, ecologically novel, fire regimes, especially on soil biological processes. To better understand the long-term implications of ecologically novel, high-severity fire, we used a 44-yr high-severity fire chronosequence in the Sierra Nevada where forests were historically adapted to frequent, low-severity fire, but were fire suppressed for at least 70 yr. High-severity fire in the Sierra Nevada resulted in a long-term (44 +yr) decrease (>50%, P < 0.05) in soil extracellular enzyme activities, basal microbial respiration (56-72%, P < 0.05), and organic carbon (>50%, P < 0.05) in the upper 5 cm compared to sites that had not been burned for at least 115 yr. However, nitrogen (N) processes were only affected in the most recent fire site (4 yr post-fire). Net nitrification increased by over 600% in the most recent fire site (P < 0.001), but returned to similar levels as the unburned control in the 13-yr site. Contrary to previous studies, we did not find a consistent effect of plant cover type on soil biogeochemical processes in mid-successional (10-50 yr) forest soils. Rather, the 44-yr reduction in soil organic carbon (C) quantity correlated positively with dampened C cycling processes. Our results show the drastic and long-term implication of ecologically novel, high-severity fire on soil biogeochemistry and underscore the need for long-term fire ecological experiments

Epidemiology and fitness effects of wood mouse herpesvirus in a natural host population

Rodent gammaherpesviruses have become important models for understanding human herpesvirus diseases. In particular, interactions between murid herpesvirus 4 and Mus musculus (a non-natural host species) have been extensively studied under controlled laboratory conditions. However, several fundamental aspects of murine gammaherpesvirus biology are not well understood, including how these viruses are transmitted from host to host, and their impacts on host fitness under natural conditions. Here, we investigate the epidemiology of a gammaherpesvirus in free-living wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in a 2-year longitudinal study. Wood mouse herpesvirus (WMHV) was the only herpesvirus detected and occurred frequently in wood mice and also less commonly in bank voles. Strikingly, WMHV infection probability was highest in reproductively active, heavy male mice. Infection risk also showed a repeatable seasonal pattern, peaking in spring and declining through the summer. We show that this seasonal decline can be at least partly attributed to reduced recapture of WMHV-infected adults. These results suggest that male reproductive behaviours could provide an important natural route of transmission for these viruses. They also suggest that gammaherpesvirus infection may have significant detrimental effects in wild hosts, questioning the view that these viruses have limited impacts in natural, co-evolved host species

Intonation in unaccompanied singing: Accuracy, drift, and a model of reference pitch memory

Copyright 2014 Acoustical Society of America. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the Acoustical Society of America. The following article appeared in J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 136, 401 (2014) and may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1121/1.4881915

Single nucleotide polymorphism-based dispersal estimates using noninvasive sampling

Quantifying dispersal within wild populations is an important but challenging task. Here we present a method to estimate contemporary, individual-based dispersal distance from noninvasively collected samples using a specialized panel of 96 SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms). One main issue in conducting dispersal studies is the requirement for a high sampling resolution at a geographic scale appropriate for capturing the majority of dispersal events. In this study, fecal samples of brown bear (Ursus arctos) were collected by volunteer citizens, resulting in a high sampling resolution spanning over 45,000km(2) in Gavleborg and Dalarna counties in Sweden. SNP genotypes were obtained for unique individuals sampled (n=433) and subsequently used to reconstruct pedigrees. A Mantel test for isolation by distance suggests that the sampling scale was appropriate for females but not for males, which are known to disperse long distances. Euclidean distance was estimated between mother and offspring pairs identified through the reconstructed pedigrees. The mean dispersal distance was 12.9km (SE 3.2) and 33.8km (SE 6.8) for females and males, respectively. These results were significantly different (Wilcoxon's rank-sum test: P-value=0.02) and are in agreement with the previously identified pattern of male-biased dispersal. Our results illustrate the potential of using a combination of noninvasively collected samples at high resolution and specialized SNPs for pedigree-based dispersal models

Variability in measurements of micro lengths with a white light interferometer

The effect of the discretionary set‐up parameters scan length and initial scanner position on the measurements of length performed with a white light interferometer microscope was investigated. In both analyses, two reference materials of nominal lengths 40 and 200 µm were considered. Random effects and mixed effects models were fitted to the data from two separate experiments. Punctual and interval estimates of variance components were provided