Information Aggregation in Standing and Ad Hoc Committees

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Probabilistic analysis of cost-effectiveness models: choosing between treatment strategies for gastroesophageal reflux disease

When choosing between mutually exclusive treatment options, it is common to construct a cost-effectiveness frontier on the cost-effectiveness plane that represents efficient points from among the treatment choices. Treatment options internal to the frontier are considered inefficient and are excluded either by strict dominance or by appealing to the principle of extended dominance. However, when uncertainty is considered, options excluded under the baseline analysis may form part of the cost-effectiveness frontier. By adopting a Bayesian approach, where distributions for model parameters are specified, uncertainty in the decision concerning which treatment option should be implemented is addressed directly. The approach is illustrated using an example from a recently published cost-effectiveness analysis of different possible treatment strategies for gastroesophageal reflux disease.It is argued that probabilistic analyses should be encouraged because they have potential to quantify the strength of evidence in favor of particular treatment choices

Efficiency in a forced contribution threshold public good game

We contrast and compare three ways of predicting efficiency in a forced contribution threshold public good game. The three alternatives are based on ordinal potential, quantal response and impulse balance theory. We report an experiment designed to test the respective predictions and find that impulse balance gives the best predictions. A simple expression detailing when enforced contributions result in high or low efficiency is provided

Toda Lattice Hierarchy and Generalized String Equations

String equations of the $p$-th generalized Kontsevich model and the compactified $c = 1$ string theory are re-examined in the language of the Toda lattice hierarchy. As opposed to a hypothesis postulated in the literature, the generalized Kontsevich model at $p = -1$ does not coincide with the $c = 1$ string theory at self-dual radius. A broader family of solutions of the Toda lattice hierarchy including these models are constructed, and shown to satisfy generalized string equations. The status of a variety of $c \le 1$ string models is discussed in this new framework.Comment: 35pages, LaTeX Errors are corrected in Eqs. (2.21), (2.36), (2.33), (3.3), (5.10), (6.1), sentences after (3.19) and theorem 5. A few references are update

Pair Interaction Potentials of Colloids by Extrapolation of Confocal Microscopy Measurements of Collective Structure

A method for measuring the pair interaction potential between colloidal particles by extrapolation measurement of collective structure to infinite dilution is presented and explored using simulation and experiment. The method is particularly well suited to systems in which the colloid is fluorescent and refractive index matched with the solvent. The method involves characterizing the potential of mean force between colloidal particles in suspension by measurement of the radial distribution function using 3D direct visualization. The potentials of mean force are extrapolated to infinite dilution to yield an estimate of the pair interaction potential, $U(r)$. We use Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to test and establish our methodology as well as to explore the effects of polydispersity on the accuracy. We use poly-12-hydroxystearic acid-stabilized poly(methyl methacrylate) (PHSA-PMMA) particles dispersed in the solvent dioctyl phthalate (DOP) to test the method and assess its accuracy for three different repulsive systems for which the range has been manipulated by addition of electrolyte.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figure

Communication, leadership and coordination failure

We investigate the limits of communication and leadership in avoiding coordination failure in minimum effort games. Our environment is challenging, with low benefits of coordination relative to the effort cost. We consider two leader types: cheap-talk leader-communicators who suggest an effort level, and first-mover leaders who lead by example. Both types of leadership have some ability to increase effort in groups with no history, but are insufficient in groups with a history of low effort. Using the strategy method for followers’ responses, we attribute the persistence of coordination failure to the presence of followers who do not follow the leader

A literature review of economic evaluations for a neglected tropical disease: human African Trypanosomiasis (“sleeping sickness”)

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a disease caused by infection with the parasite Trypanosoma brucei gambiense or T. b. rhodesiense. It is transmitted to humans via the tsetse fly. Approximately 70 million people worldwide were at risk of infection in 1995, and approximately 20,000 people across Africa are infected with HAT. The objective of this review was to identify existing economic evaluations in order to summarise cost-effective interventions to reduce, control, or eliminate the burden of HAT. The studies included in the review were compared and critically appraised in order to determine if there were existing standardised methods that could be used for economic evaluation of HAT interventions or if innovative methodological approaches are warranted. A search strategy was developed using keywords and was implemented in January 2014 in several databases. The search returned a total of 2,283 articles. After two levels of screening, a total of seven economic evaluations were included and underwent critical appraisal using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) Methodology Checklist 6: Economic Evaluations. Results from the existing studies focused on the cost-effectiveness of interventions for the control and reduction of disease transmission. Modelling was a common method to forecast long-term results, and publications focused on interventions by category, such as case detection, diagnostics, drug treatments, and vector control. Most interventions were considered cost-effective based on the thresholds described; however, the current treatment, nifurtomix-eflornithine combination therapy (NECT), has not been evaluated for cost-effectiveness, and considerations for cost-effective strategies for elimination have yet to be completed. Overall, the current evidence highlights the main components that play a role in control; however, economic evaluations of HAT elimination strategies are needed to assist national decision makers, stakeholders, and key funders. These analyses would be of use, as HAT is currently being prioritized as a neglected tropical disease (NTD) to reach elimination by 2020

The Evolution of Facultative Conformity Based on Similarity

Conformist social learning can have a pronounced impact on the cultural evolution of human societies, and it can shape both the genetic and cultural evolution of human social behavior more broadly. Conformist social learning is beneficial when the social learner and the demonstrators from whom she learns are similar in the sense that the same behavior is optimal for both. Otherwise, the social learner's optimum is likely to be rare among demonstrators, and conformity is costly. The trade-off between these two situations has figured prominently in the longstanding debate about the evolution of conformity, but the importance of the trade-off can depend critically on the flexibility of one's social learning strategy. We developed a gene-culture coevolutionary model that allows cognition to encode and process information about the similarity between naive learners and experienced demonstrators. Facultative social learning strategies that condition on perceived similarity evolve under certain circumstances. When this happens, facultative adjustments are often asymmetric. Asymmetric adjustments mean that the tendency to follow the majority when learners perceive demonstrators as similar is stronger than the tendency to follow the minority when learners perceive demonstrators as different. In an associated incentivized experiment, we found that social learners adjusted how they used social information based on perceived similarity, but adjustments were symmetric. The symmetry of adjustments completely eliminated the commonly assumed trade-off between cases in which learners and demonstrators share an optimum versus cases in which they do not. In a second experiment that maximized the potential for social learners to follow their preferred strategies, a few social learners exhibited an inclination to follow the majority. Most, however, did not respond systematically to social information. Additionally, in the complete absence of information about their similarity to demonstrators, social learners were unwilling to make assumptions about whether they shared an optimum with demonstrators. Instead, social learners simply ignored social information even though this was the only information available. Our results suggest that social cognition equips people to use conformity in a discriminating fashion that moderates the evolutionary trade-offs that would occur if conformist social learning was rigidly applied