Time matters less when outcomes differ: uni-modal versus cross-modal comparisons in intertemporal choice

Uni-modal intertemporal decisions involve comparing options of the same type (e.g. apples now versus apples later), and cross-modal decisions involve comparing options of different types (e.g. a car now versus a vacation later). As we explain, existing models of intertemporal choice do not allow time preference to depend on whether the comparisons to be made are uni-modal or cross-modal. We test this restriction in an experiment using the delayed-compensation method, a new extension of the standard method of eliciting intertemporal preferences that allows for assessment of time preference for non-monetary and discrete outcomes, as well as for both cross-modal and uni-modal comparisons. Participants were much more averse to delay for uni-modal than cross-modal decisions. We provide two potential explanations for this effect: one drawing on multi-attribute choice, the other drawing on construal level theory

Consumption experience, choice experience and the endowment effect

We report experiments investigating how experience influences the endowment effect. Our experiments feature endowments which are bundles of unfamiliar consumption goods. We examine how a subject’s willingness to swap items from their endowment is influenced by prior experiences of tasting the goods in question and by prior experiences of choosing between them. We do not find a statistically significant endowment effect in our baseline treatment and, because of this, we are unable to test for an effect of consumption experience. We do find an endowment effect when the endowment is acquired in two instalments and, in this setting, we find some evidence that choice experience increases trading. In a follow up experiment, we find evidence that the absence of an endowment effect in our baseline treatment is due to subjects being more willing to swap when they do not have to give up the last unit of their endowment

Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents' to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus 'keep their options open'. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations

The UN in the lab

We consider two alternatives to inaction for governments combating terrorism, which we term Defense and Prevention. Defense consists of investing in resources that reduce the impact of an attack, and generates a negative externality to other governments, making their countries a more attractive objective for terrorists. In contrast, Prevention, which consists of investing in resources that reduce the ability of the terrorist organization to mount an attack, creates a positive externality by reducing the overall threat of terrorism for all. This interaction is captured using a simple 3×3 “Nested Prisoner’s Dilemma” game, with a single Nash equilibrium where both countries choose Defense. Due to the structure of this interaction, countries can benefit from coordination of policy choices, and international institutions (such as the UN) can be utilized to facilitate coordination by implementing agreements to share the burden of Prevention. We introduce an institution that implements a burden-sharing policy for Prevention, and investigate experimentally whether subjects coordinate on a cooperative strategy more frequently under different levels of cost sharing. In all treatments, burden sharing leaves the Prisoner’s Dilemma structure and Nash equilibrium of the game unchanged. We compare three levels of burden sharing to a baseline in a between-subjects design, and find that burden sharing generates a non-linear effect on the choice of the efficient Prevention strategy and overall performance. Only an institution supporting a high level of mandatory burden sharing generates a significant improvement in the use of the Prevention strategy

Cognitive behaviour therapy versus counselling intervention for anxiety in young people with high-functioning autism spectrum disorders: a pilot randomised controlled trial

The use of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) as a treatment for children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been explored in a number of trials. Whilst CBT appears superior to no treatment or treatment as usual, few studies have assessed CBT against a control group receiving an alternative therapy. Our randomised controlled trial compared use of CBT against person-centred counselling for anxiety in 36 young people with ASD, ages 12–18. Outcome measures included parent- teacher- and self-reports of anxiety and social disability. Whilst each therapy produced improvements inparticipants, neither therapy was superior to the other to a significant degree on any measure. This is consistent with findings for adults

Identification of PKD1L1 Gene Variants in Children with the Biliary Atresia Splenic Malformation Syndrome

Biliary atresia (BA) is the most common cause of end‐stage liver disease in children and the primary indication for pediatric liver transplantation, yet underlying etiologies remain unknown. Approximately 10% of infants affected by BA exhibit various laterality defects (heterotaxy) including splenic abnormalities and complex cardiac malformations — a distinctive subgroup commonly referred to as the biliary atresia splenic malformation (BASM) syndrome. We hypothesized that genetic factors linking laterality features with the etiopathogenesis of BA in BASM patients could be identified through whole exome sequencing (WES) of an affected cohort. DNA specimens from 67 BASM subjects, including 58 patient‐parent trios, from the NIDDK‐supported Childhood Liver Disease Research Network (ChiLDReN) underwent WES. Candidate gene variants derived from a pre‐specified set of 2,016 genes associated with ciliary dysgenesis and/or dysfunction or cholestasis were prioritized according to pathogenicity, population frequency, and mode of inheritance. Five BASM subjects harbored rare and potentially deleterious bi‐allelic variants in polycystin 1‐like 1, PKD1L1, a gene associated with ciliary calcium signaling and embryonic laterality determination in fish, mice and humans. Heterozygous PKD1L1 variants were found in 3 additional subjects. Immunohistochemical analysis of liver from the one BASM subject available revealed decreased PKD1L1 expression in bile duct epithelium when compared to normal livers and livers affected by other non‐cholestatic diseases. Conclusion WES identified bi‐allelic and heterozygous PKD1L1 variants of interest in 8 BASM subjects from the ChiLDReN dataset. The dual roles for PKD1L1 in laterality determination and ciliary function suggest that PKD1L1 is a new, biologically plausible, cholangiocyte‐expressed candidate gene for the BASM syndrome

Physically inspired interactive music machines - making contemporary composition accessible

Much of what we might call ‘high-art music’ occupies the difficult end of listening for contemporary audiences. Concepts such as pitch, meter and even musical instruments often have little to do with such music, where all sound is typically considered as possessing musical potential. As a result, such music can be challenging to educationalists, for students have few familiar pointers in discovering and understanding the gestures, relationships and structures in these works. This paper describes ongoing projects at the University of Hertfordshire that adopt an approach of mapping interactions within visual spaces onto musical sound. These provide a causal explanation for the patterns and sequences heard, whilst incorporating web interoperability thus enabling potential for distance learning applications. While so far these have mainly driven pitch-based events using MIDI or audio files, it is hoped to extend the ideas using appropriate technology into fully developed composition tools, aiding the teaching of both appreciation/analysis and composition of contemporary music