4,084 research outputs found

    CAPACITIES AND PROBABILISTIC BELIEFS: A PRECARIOUS COEXISTENCE

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    This paper raises the problem of how to define revealed probabilistic beliefs in the context of the capacity/Choquet Expected Utility model. At the center of the analysis is a decision-theoretically axiomatized definition of ""revealed unambiguous events."" The definition is shown to impose surprisingly strong restrictions on the underlying capacity and on the set of unambiguous events; in particular, the latter is always an algebra. Alternative weaker definitions violate even minimal criteria of adequacy. Rather than finding fault with the proposed definition, we argue that our results indicate that the CEU model is epistemically restrictive, and point out that analogous problems do not arise within the Maximin Expected Utility model.

    EQUITY, BONDS, GROWTH AND INFLATION IN A QUADRATIC INFINITE HORIZON ECONOMY

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    This paper exhibits a class of infinite-horizon economies with incomplete markets (GEI) for which the equilibrium can be explicitly derived. We show that if agents have preference orderings represented by expected discounted quadratic utilities and if their endowments are tradable, then the equilibrium consumption and welfare of agents can be expressed as a function of the least variable income stream (LVI) obtainable by trading on the financial markets. If in addition the economy has a Markov structure, then the LVI can be calculated. The model is used to study the behavior of agents on the equity and bond markets in an economy in which the growth and inflation processes are calibrated to fit US data. Two related findings emerge: first, the proportion of bonds in the portfolios of even the most risk-averse agents is small (less than 2%); second, since equity dominates the portfolios of agents, the welfare loss due to variable inflation is small.

    Mechanisms for the Increased Fatigability of the Lower Limb in People with Type 2 Diabetes

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    Fatiguing exercise is the basis of exercise training and a cornerstone of management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), however, little is known about the fatigability of limb muscles and the involved mechanisms in people with T2D. The purpose was to compare fatigability of knee extensor muscles between people with T2D and controls without diabetes and determine the neural and muscular mechanisms for a dynamic fatiguing task. Seventeen people with T2D (10 men, 7 women: 59.6{plus minus}9.0 years) and 21 age-, BMI- and physical activity-matched controls (11 men, 10 women: 59.5{plus minus}9.6 years) performed 120 high-velocity concentric contractions (1 contraction/3 s) with a load equivalent to 20% maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) torque with the knee extensors. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and electrical stimulation of the quadriceps were used to assess voluntary activation and contractile properties. People with T2D had larger reductions than controls in power during the fatiguing task (39.9{plus minus}20.2% vs. 28.3{plus minus}16.7%, P2=0.364, P=0.002). Although neural mechanisms contributed to fatigability, contractile mechanisms were responsible for the greater knee extensor fatigability in men and women with T2D compared with healthy controls

    Change Talk During Brief Motivational Intervention With Young Adult Males: Strength Matters.

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    Client change talk (CT) during motivational interviewing (MI) has been described as a predictor of change in alcohol use. We examined the predictive validity of different strength levels of CT within a brief MI session for 174 young men from the general population screened as hazardous drinkers. CT was measured using the MI Skill Code (MISC 2.1) and categorized with positive (toward change) and negative (against change) valence and 3 strength levels (1=low, 2=medium, 3=high). Analyses included linear regression models predicting drinking at 3-month follow-up, while controlling for baseline drinking. Frequency of overall negative CT (i.e., sum of -1, -2, -3) significantly predicted poorer drinking outcomes. In a multivariate model entering frequency of CT utterances at each level of strength (i.e. +1, +2, +3, -1, -2, -3), the directionality of negative strength ratings was consistently in the expected direction, but only CT-2 was statistically significant. In contrast, overall CT positive (i.e., sum of +1, +2, +3) was not a significant predictor of less alcohol use, but the multivariate model showed that the presence of CT+3 significantly predicted less drinking at 3-month follow-up. Averaged strength summary score (i.e. on the scale from -3 to +3) was a significant predictor of better outcome, while percent positive CT was not. Moderation analyses showed that young men with lower baseline readiness to change or lower alcohol problem severity had higher follow-up drinking when they expressed more CT+1 or CT+2, while the opposite pattern was observed with those reporting higher baseline readiness to change or higher alcohol problem severity. Mixed findings for varying levels of positive CT strength might explain previous studies showing poor predictive validity of positive client language in MI. Together with other studies in similar settings, these findings suggest the importance of advanced MI techniques to shape client language to soften negative change talk (also known as sustain talk) and elicit positive CT verbalized with high intensity

    Predicate Abstraction for Linked Data Structures

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    We present Alias Refinement Types (ART), a new approach to the verification of correctness properties of linked data structures. While there are many techniques for checking that a heap-manipulating program adheres to its specification, they often require that the programmer annotate the behavior of each procedure, for example, in the form of loop invariants and pre- and post-conditions. Predicate abstraction would be an attractive abstract domain for performing invariant inference, existing techniques are not able to reason about the heap with enough precision to verify functional properties of data structure manipulating programs. In this paper, we propose a technique that lifts predicate abstraction to the heap by factoring the analysis of data structures into two orthogonal components: (1) Alias Types, which reason about the physical shape of heap structures, and (2) Refinement Types, which use simple predicates from an SMT decidable theory to capture the logical or semantic properties of the structures. We prove ART sound by translating types into separation logic assertions, thus translating typing derivations in ART into separation logic proofs. We evaluate ART by implementing a tool that performs type inference for an imperative language, and empirically show, using a suite of data-structure benchmarks, that ART requires only 21% of the annotations needed by other state-of-the-art verification techniques

    Therapist and client discussions of drinking and coping: a sequential analysis of therapy dialogues in three evidence-based alcohol use disorder treatments.

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    Research into the active ingredients of behavioral interventions for alcohol use disorders (AUD) has focused upon treatment-specific factors, often yielding disappointing results. The present study examines common factors of change in motivational enhancement therapy, cognitive-behavioral therapy and 12-Step facilitation therapy by (1) estimating transitional probabilities between therapist behaviors and subsequent client Change (CT) and Sustain (ST) Talk and (2) examining therapist skillfulness as a potential predictor of transition probability magnitude. Secondary data analysis examined temporal associations in therapy dialogues. United States: data were from Project MATCH (Matching Alcoholism Treatments to Client Homogeneity) (1997). One hundred and twenty-six participants who received motivational enhancement therapy, cognitive-behavioral therapy or 12-Step facilitation therapy. Therapist behaviors were measured in three categories (exploring, teaching, connecting) and client statements included five categories (CT-distal, ST-distal, CT-proximal, ST-proximal, neutral). Therapist skillfulness was measured using a five-point ordinal scale. Relative to chance, therapist exploratory behaviors predicted subsequent client discussion of distal, drinking behavior [odds ratio (OR) = 1.37-1.78, P < 0.001] while suppressing discussion of proximal coping and neutral content (OR = 0.83-0.90, P < 0.01). Unexpectedly, therapist teaching suppressed distal drinking language (OR = 0.48-0.53, P < 0.001) and predicted neutral content (OR = 1.45, P < 0.001). Connecting behaviors increased both drinking and coping language, particularly language in favor of change (CT OR = 1.15-1.84, P < 0.001). Analyses of exploring and connecting skillfulness revealed that high skillfulness maximized these behaviors effect on client responses, but not teaching skillfulness. In motivational enhancement therapy, cognitive-behavioral therapy, and 12-Step facilitation therapy for alcohol use disorders, the therapists who explore and connect with clients appear to be more successful at eliciting discussion about change than therapists who engage in teaching behavior. Therapists who are more skilled achieve better results than those who are less skilled

    The Chagos Islands cases: the empire strikes back

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    Good governance requires the accommodation of multiple interests in the cause of decision making. However, undue regard for particular sectional interests can take their toll upon public faith in government administration. Historically, broad conceptions of the good of the commonwealth were employed to outweigh the interests of groups that resisted colonisation. In the decision making of the British Empire, the standard approach for justifying the marginalisation of the interests of colonised groups was that they were uncivilised and that particular hardships were the price to be paid for bringing to them the imperial dividend of industrial society. It is widely assumed that with the dismantling of the British Empire, such impulses and their accompanying jurisprudence became a thing of the past. Even as decolonisation proceeded apace after the Second World War, however, the United Kingdom maintained control of strategically important islands with a view towards sustaining its global role. In an infamous example from this twilight period of empire, in the 1960s imperial interests were used to justify the expulsion of the Chagos islanders from the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). Into the twenty-first century, this forced elision of the UK’s interests with the imperial “common good” continues to take centre stage in courtroom battles over the islanders’ rights, being cited before domestic and international tribunals in order to maintain the Chagossians’ exclusion from their homeland. This article considers the new jurisprudence of imperialism which has emerged in a string of decisions which have continued to marginalise the Chagossians’ interests
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