The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as\u27that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

Pressure studies of impurity levels in AlxGa1-xAs

doi: 10.1088/0268-1242/4/4/033The authors present a study of the deep and shallow donor levels under hydrostatic pressure. The shallow levels follow the conduction bands, while the deep levels are strongly sublinear with pressure. The temperature dependence of the intensities and energies is used to obtain an energy level diagram of the deep levels at high pressures.This work was supported by theU S Army under grant number DAAL03-86K-0083, the US Department of Energy under grant number DE-AC02 84ER45048, and Amoco Corporation. M Chandrasekhar is a n A P Sloan Foundation Fellow

The Role of National Debts in the Determination of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate

An intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long-run nominal yen-dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts. The model is tested empirically using data from Japan and the USA. The proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long-run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar

Predicting growth rates and recessions: assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditions

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas the results for four-quarter-ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general are mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises

Low-level mediation of directionally specific motion after-effects: motion perception is not necessary

Previous psychophysical experiments with normal human observers have shown that adaptation to a moving dot stream causes directionally specific repulsion in the perceived angle of a subsequently viewed, moving probe. In this paper, we used a 2AFC task with roving pedestals to determine the conditions necessary and sufficient for producing directionally specific repulsion with compound adaptors, each ofwhich contains two oppositely moving, differently colored, component streams. Experiment 1 provides a demonstration of repulsion between single-component adaptors and probes moving at approximately 90° or 270°. In Experiment 2 oppositely moving dots in the adaptor were paired to preclude the appearance of motion. Nonetheless, repulsion remained strong when the angle betweeneach probe stream and one component was approximately 30°. In Experiment 3 adapting dot-pairs were kept stationary during their limited lifetimes. Their orientation content alone proved insufficient for producing repulsion. In Experiments 4-6 the angle between probe and both adapting components was approximately 90°or 270°. Directional repulsion was found when observers were asked to visually track one of the adapting components (Experiment 6), but not when observers were asked to attentionally track it (Experiment 5), nor while passively viewing the adaptor (Experiment 4). Our results are consistent with a low-level mechanism for motion adaptation. It is not selective for stimulus color and it is not susceptible to attentional modulation.The most likely cortical locus of adaptation is area V1

Chitosan particles agglomerated scaffolds for cartilage and osteochondral tissue engineering approaches with adipose tissue derived stem cells

It is well accepted that natural tissue regeneration is unlikely to occur if the cells are not supplied with an extracellular matrix (ECM) substitute. With this goal, several different methodologies have been used to produce a variety of 3D scaffolds as artificial ECM substitutes suitable for bone and cartilage tissue engineering. Furthermore, osteochondral tissue engineering presents new challenges since the combination of scaffolding and co-culture requirements from both bone and cartilage applications is required in order to achieve a successful osteochondral construct. In this paper, an innovative processing route based on a chitosan particles aggregation methodology for the production of cartilage and osteochondral tissue engineering scaffolds is reported. An extensive characterization is presented including a morphological evaluation using Micro-Computed Tomography (μCT) and 3D virtual models built with an image processing software. Mechanical and water uptake characterizations were also carried out, evidencing the potential of the developed scaffolds for the proposed applications. Cytotoxicity tests show that the developed chitosan particles agglomerated scaffolds do not exert toxic effects on cells. Furthermore, osteochondral bilayered scaffolds could also be developed. Preliminary seeding of mesenchymal stem cells isolated from human adipose tissue was performed aiming at developing solutions for chondrogenic and osteogenic differentiation for osteochondral tissue engineering applications.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)European NoE EXPERTISSUES (NMP3-CT-2004-500283)European STREP Project HIPPOCRATES (NMP3-CT-2003-505758

Materials in particulate form for tissue engineering. 2 Applications in bone

Materials in particulate form have been the subjects of intensive research in view of their use as drug delivery systems. While within this application there are still issues to be addressed, these systems are now being regarded as having a great potential for tissue engineering applications. Bone repair is a very demanding task, due to the specific characteristics of skeletal tissues, and the design of scaffolds for bone tissue engineering presents several difficulties. Materials in particulate form are now seen as a means of achieving higher control over parameters such as porosity, pore size, surface area and the mechanical properties of the scaffold. These materials also have the potential to incorporate biologically active molecules for release and to serve as carriers for cells. It is believed that the combination of these features would create a more efficient approach towards regeneration. This review focuses on the application ofmaterials in particulate formfor bone tissue engineering. A brief overview of bone biology and the healing process is also provided in order to place the application in its broader context. An original compilation of molecules with a documented role in bone tissue biology is listed, as they have the potential to be used in bone tissue engineering strategies. To sum up this review, examples of works addressing the above aspects are presented

On the Nature of Memory and Rejuvenation in Glassy Systems

The memory effect in a single crystal spin glass ($\mathrm{Cu}_{0.92}\mathrm{Mn}_{0.08}$) has been measured using $1 \mathrm{Hz}$ ac susceptibility techniques over a reduced temperature range of $0.4 - 0.7 \, T_g$ and a model of the memory effect has been developed. A double-waiting-time protocol is carried out where the spin glass is first allowed to age at a temperature below $T_g$, followed by a second aging at a lower temperature after it has fully rejuvenated. The model is based on calculating typical coincidences between the growth of correlated regions at the two temperatures. It accounts for the absolute magnitude of the memory effect as a function of both waiting times and temperatures. The data can be explained by the memory loss being a function of the relative change in the correlated volume at the first waiting temperature because of the growth in the correlations at the second waiting temperature.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

Joint modelling of multi-scale animal movement data using hierarchical hidden Markov models

1.Hidden Markov models are prevalent in animal movement modelling, where they are widely used to infer behavioural modes and their drivers from various types of telemetry data. To allow for meaningful inference, observations need to be equally spaced in time, or otherwise regularly sampled, where the corresponding temporal resolution strongly affects what kind of behaviours can be inferred from the data. 2.Recent advances in biologging technology have led to a variety of novel telemetry sensors which often collect data from the same individual simultaneously at different time scales, e.g. step lengths obtained from GPS tags every hour, dive depths obtained from time‐depth recorders once per dive, or accelerations obtained from accelerometers several times per second. However, to date, statistical machinery to address the corresponding complex multi‐stream and multi‐scale data is lacking. 3.We propose hierarchical hidden Markov models as a versatile statistical framework that naturally accounts for differing temporal resolutions across multiple variables. In these models, the observations are regarded as stemming from multiple, connected behavioural processes, each of which operates at the time scale at which the corresponding variables were observed. 4.By jointly modelling multiple data streams, collected at different temporal resolutions, corresponding models can be used to infer behavioural modes at multiple time scales, and in particular help to draw a much more comprehensive picture of an animal's movement patterns, e.g. with regard to long‐term vs. short‐term movement strategies. 5.The suggested approach is illustrated in two real‐data applications, where we jointly model i) coarse‐scale horizontal and fine‐scale vertical Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) movements throughout the English Channel, and ii) coarse‐scale horizontal movements and corresponding fine‐scale accelerations of a horn shark (Heterodontus francisci) tagged off the Californian coast