Evaluating the performance of survey-based operational management procedures

The design and evaluation of survey-based management strategies is addressed in this article, using three case-study fisheries: North Sea herring, Bay of Biscay anchovy and North Sea cod, with a brief history and the main management issues with each fishery outlined. A range of operational management procedures for the case study stocks were designed and evaluated using trends that may be derived from survey indices (spawner biomass, year-class strength and total mortality) with an array of simple and more structured observation error regimes simulated. Model-free and model-based indicators of stock status were employed in the management procedures. On the basis of stochastic stock-specific simulations, we identified the following key determinants of successful management procedures: (i) adequate specification of the stock-recruit relationship (model structure, parameter estimates and variability), (ii) knowledge of the magnitude and structure of the variation in the survey indices, and (iii) explication of the particular management objectives, when assessing management performance. More conservative harvesting strategies are required to meet specified targets in the presence of increasing stochasticity, due to both process and observation error. It was seen that survey-based operational management procedures can perform well in the absence of commercial data, and can also inform aspects of survey design with respect to acceptable levels of error or bias in the surveys

Visualization of structures and cosmic flows in the Local Universe

A visualization of three-dimensional structures and cosmic flows is presented using information from the Extragalactic Distance Database V8k redshift catalog and peculiar velocities from the Cosmicflows-1 survey. Structures within a volume bounded at 8000 km/s on the cardinal Supergalactic axes are explored in terms of both the display of the positions of the 30124 galaxies of the catalog and its reconstructed luminosity density field, corrected to account for growing incompleteness with distance. Cosmography of the Local Universe is discussed with the intent to identify the most prominent structures, including voids, galaxy clusters, filaments and walls. The mapping also benefits from precise distance measures provided through the Cosmicflows-1 observational program. Three-dimensional visualizations of the coherent flows of galaxies in the nearby universe are presented using recent results obtained on the reconstruction of cosmic flows with the Wiener Filter approach. The three major components of the Milky Way motion, namely the expulsion from the Local Void, the infall toward the Virgo Cluster, and the bulk flow of the historic Local Supercluster toward the Great Attractor are illustrated using different visualization techniques and analyzed in the light of the cosmography derived from the V8k redshift and Cosmicflows-1 distance catalogs.Comment: Advancing the physics of cosmic distances Proceedings IAU Symposium No. 289, 2012 R. de Grijs, G. Bono 2012 International Astronomical Unio

The Arrowhead Mini-Supercluster of Galaxies

Superclusters of galaxies can be defined kinematically from local evaluations of the velocity shear tensor. The location where the smallest eigenvalue of the shear is positive and maximal defines the center of a basin of attraction. Velocity and density fields are reconstructed with Wiener Filter techniques. Local velocities due to the density field in a restricted region can be separated from external tidal flows, permitting the identification of boundaries separating inward flows toward a basin of attraction and outward flows. This methodology was used to define the Laniakea Supercluster that includes the Milky Way. Large adjacent structures include Perseus-Pisces, Coma, Hercules, and Shapley but current kinematic data are insufficient to capture their full domains. However there is a small region trapped between Laniakea, Perseus-Pisces, and Coma that is close enough to be reliably characterized and that satisfies the kinematic definition of a supercluster. Because of its shape, it is given the name the Arrowhead Supercluster. This entity does not contain any major clusters. A characteristic dimension is ~25 Mpc and the contained mass is only ~10^15 Msun.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. Video can be viewed at http://irfu.cea.fr/arrowhea

Planes of satellite galaxies and the cosmic web

Recent observational studies have demonstrated that the majority of satellite galaxies tend to orbit their hosts on highly flattened, vast, possibly co-rotating planes. Two nearly parallel planes of satellites have been confirmed around the M31 galaxy and around the Centaurus A galaxy, while the Milky Way also sports a plane of satellites. It has been argued that such an alignment of satellites on vast planes is unexpected in the standard ({\Lambda}CDM) model of cosmology if not even in contradiction to its generic predictions. Guided by {\Lambda}CDM numerical simulations, which suggest that satellites are channeled towards hosts along the axis of the slowest collapse as dictated by the ambient velocity shear tensor, we re-examine the planes of local satellites systems within the framework of the local shear tensor derived from the Cosmicflows-2 dataset. The analysis reveals that the Local Group and Centaurus A reside in a filament stretched by the Virgo cluster and compressed by the expansion of the Local Void. Four out of five thin planes of satellite galaxies are indeed closely aligned with the axis of compression induced by the Local Void. Being the less massive system, the moderate misalignment of the Milky Way's satellite plane can likely be ascribed to its greater susceptibility to tidal torques, as suggested by numerical simulations. The alignment of satellite systems in the local universe with the ambient shear field is thus in general agreement with predictions of the {\Lambda}CDM model.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables. Accepted by MNRAS, 9 June 201

Ho'oleilana: An Individual Baryon Acoustic Oscillation?

Theory of the physics of the early hot universe leads to a prediction of baryon acoustic oscillations that has received confirmation from the pair-wise separations of galaxies in samples of hundreds of thousands of objects. Evidence is presented here for the discovery of a remarkably strong individual contribution to the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signal at z=0.068, an entity that is given the name Ho'oleilana. The radius of the 3D structure is 155/h_{75} Mpc. At its core is the Bootes supercluster. The Sloan Great Wall, CfA Great Wall, and Hercules complex all lie within the BAO shell. The interpretation of Ho'oleilana as a BAO structure with our preferred analysis implies a value of the Hubble constant of 76.9+8.2-4.8 km/s/Mpc.Comment: One video and two interactive models. 14 pages, 14 figure

Measurement of the top quark-pair production cross section with ATLAS in pp collisions at \sqrt{s}=7\TeV

A measurement of the production cross-section for top quark pairs(\ttbar) in $pp$ collisions at \sqrt{s}=7 \TeV is presented using data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in two different topologies: single lepton (electron $e$ or muon $\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least four jets, and dilepton ($ee$, $\mu\mu$ or $e\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least two jets. In a data sample of 2.9 pb-1, 37 candidate events are observed in the single-lepton topology and 9 events in the dilepton topology. The corresponding expected backgrounds from non-\ttbar Standard Model processes are estimated using data-driven methods and determined to be $12.2 \pm 3.9$ events and $2.5 \pm 0.6$ events, respectively. The kinematic properties of the selected events are consistent with SM \ttbar production. The inclusive top quark pair production cross-section is measured to be \sigmattbar=145 \pm 31 ^{+42}_{-27} pb where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The measurement agrees with perturbative QCD calculations.Comment: 30 pages plus author list (50 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, CERN-PH number and final journal adde

Inclusive search for same-sign dilepton signatures in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

An inclusive search is presented for new physics in events with two isolated leptons (e or mu) having the same electric charge. The data are selected from events collected from p p collisions at root s = 7 TeV by the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb(-1). The spectra in dilepton invariant mass, missing transverse momentum and jet multiplicity are presented and compared to Standard Model predictions. In this event sample, no evidence is found for contributions beyond those of the Standard Model. Limits are set on the cross-section in a fiducial region for new sources of same-sign high-mass dilepton events in the ee, e mu and mu mu channels. Four models predicting same-sign dilepton signals are constrained: two descriptions of Majorana neutrinos, a cascade topology similar to supersymmetry or universal extra dimensions, and fourth generation d-type quarks. Assuming a new physics scale of 1 TeV, Majorana neutrinos produced by an effective operator V with masses below 460 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. A lower limit of 290 GeV is set at 95% confidence level on the mass of fourth generation d-type quarks