The Spending Game: Money, Votes, and Incumbency in Congressional Elections

This paper takes a game-theoretic approach to the analysis of the spending-votes relationship in Congressional elections to reinvestigate the surprisingly weak effects of incumbent spending measured in previous studies. Rather than focusing narrowly on the impact of spending on electoral outcomes, we attempt to take account of the reciprocal effect of (anticipated) closeness on spending using several statistical approaches. We also offer improvements in the specification and measurement of the vote equation, by using a better measure of district party strength adjusted for year-effects, and by including a variable that measures the heat of the campaign in terms of total spending by the incumbents and challengers. The latter measure partially corrects for the simultaneously determined (and highly positively correlated) levels of incumbent and challenger spending. A more rigorous multiequation simultaneous equations model, identified by uncorrelated errors, provides even more leverage for sorting out the effects of incumbent and challenger spending on votes. That analysis indicates (in a complete turnaround from findings reported elsewhere) that incumbent spending effects are highly significant and of a magnitude that is, if anything, greater than challenger spending effects. The paper concludes by using a game theoretic model to estimate the effect of anticipated closeness on spending and to estimate differences in campaign financing costs between incumbents and challengers

Equilibria in Campaign Spending Games: Theory and Data

This paper presents a formal game-theoretic model to explain the simultaneity problem that has made it difficult to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of both incumbent and challenger spending in U.S. House elections. The model predicts a particular form of correlation between the expected closeness of the race and the level of spending by both candidates, which implies that the simultaneity problem should not be present in close races, and should be progressively more severe in range of safe races that are empirically observed. This is confirmed by comparing simple OLS regression of races that are expected to be close with races that are expected not to be close, using House incumbent races spanning two decades. The theory also implies that inclusion of a variable controlling for total spending should successfully produce reliable estimates using OLS. This is confirmed

Structure and dynamics of a model glass: influence of long-range forces

We vary the amplitude of the long-range Coulomb forces within a classical potential describing a model silica glass and study the consequences on the structure and dynamics of the glass, via molecular dynamics simulations. This model allows us to follow the variation of specific features such as the First Sharp Diffraction Peak and the Boson Peak in a system going continuously from a fragile (no Coulomb forces) to a strong (with Coulomb forces) glass. In particular we show that the characteristic features of a strong glass (existence of medium range order, bell-shaped ring size distribution, sharp Boson peak) appear as soon as tetrahedral units are formed.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. To be published in J.Phys.: C

Variability survey in the CoRoT SRa01 field: Implications of eclipsing binary distribution on cluster formation in NGC 2264

Time-series photometry of the CoRoT field SRa01 was carried out with the Berlin Exoplanet Search Telescope II (BEST II) in 2008/2009. A total of 1,161 variable stars were detected, of which 241 were previously known and 920 are newly found. Several new, variable young stellar objects have been discovered. The study of the spatial distribution of eclipsing binaries revealed the higher relative frequency of Algols toward the center of the young open cluster NGC 2264. In general Algol frequency obeys an isotropic distribution of their angular momentum vectors, except inside the cluster, where a specific orientation of the inclinations is the case. We suggest that we see the orbital plane of the binaries almost edge-on.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The Berlin Exoplanet Search Telescope II. Catalog of Variable Stars. I. Characterization of Three Southern Target Fields

A photometric survey of three Southern target fields with BEST II yielded the detection of 2,406 previously unknown variable stars and an additional 617 stars with suspected variability. This study presents a catalog including their coordinates, magnitudes, light curves, ephemerides, amplitudes, and type of variability. In addition, the variability of 17 known objects is confirmed, thus validating the results. The catalog contains a number of known and new variables that are of interest for further astrophysical investigations, in order to, e.g., search for additional bodies in eclipsing binary systems, or to test stellar interior models. Altogether, 209,070 stars were monitored with BEST II during a total of 128 nights in 2009/2010. The overall variability fraction of 1.2-1.5% in these target fields is well comparable to similar ground-based photometric surveys. Within the main magnitude range of $R\in\left[11,17\right]$, we identify 0.67(3)% of all stars to be eclipsing binaries, which indicates a completeness of about one third for this particular type in comparison to space surveys.Comment: accepted to A

All Who Wander: On the Prevalence and Characteristics of Multi-community Engagement

Although analyzing user behavior within individual communities is an active and rich research domain, people usually interact with multiple communities both on- and off-line. How do users act in such multi-community environments? Although there are a host of intriguing aspects to this question, it has received much less attention in the research community in comparison to the intra-community case. In this paper, we examine three aspects of multi-community engagement: the sequence of communities that users post to, the language that users employ in those communities, and the feedback that users receive, using longitudinal posting behavior on Reddit as our main data source, and DBLP for auxiliary experiments. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of features drawn from these aspects in predicting users' future level of activity. One might expect that a user's trajectory mimics the "settling-down" process in real life: an initial exploration of sub-communities before settling down into a few niches. However, we find that the users in our data continually post in new communities; moreover, as time goes on, they post increasingly evenly among a more diverse set of smaller communities. Interestingly, it seems that users that eventually leave the community are "destined" to do so from the very beginning, in the sense of showing significantly different "wandering" patterns very early on in their trajectories; this finding has potentially important design implications for community maintainers. Our multi-community perspective also allows us to investigate the "situation vs. personality" debate from language usage across different communities.Comment: 11 pages, data available at https://chenhaot.com/pages/multi-community.html, Proceedings of WWW 2015 (updated references

The Resolved Asteroid Program - Size, shape, and pole of (52) Europa

With the adaptive optics (AO) system on the 10 m Keck-II telescope, we acquired a high quality set of 84 images at 14 epochs of asteroid (52) Europa on 2005 January 20. The epochs covered its rotation period and, by following its changing shape and orientation on the plane of sky, we obtained its triaxial ellipsoid dimensions and spin pole location. An independent determination from images at three epochs obtained in 2007 is in good agreement with these results. By combining these two data sets, along with a single epoch data set obtained in 2003, we have derived a global fit for (52) Europa of diameters (379x330x249) +/- (16x8x10) km, yielding a volume-equivalent spherical-diameter of 315 +/- 7 km, and a rotational pole within 7 deg of [RA; Dec] = [257,+12] in an Equatorial J2000 reference frame (ECJ2000: 255,+35). Using the average of all mass determinations available forEuropa, we derive a density of 1.5 +/- 0.4, typical of C-type asteroids. Comparing our images with the shape model of Michalowski et al. (A&A 416, 2004), derived from optical lightcurves, illustrates excellent agreement, although several edge features visible in the images are not rendered by the model. We therefore derived a complete 3-D description of Europa's shape using the KOALA algorithm by combining our imaging epochs with 4 stellar occultations and 49 lightcurves. We use this 3-D shape model to assess these departures from ellipsoidal shape. Flat facets (possible giant craters) appear to be less distinct on (52) Europa than on other C-types that have been imaged in detail. We show that fewer giant craters, or smaller craters, is consistent with its expected impact history. Overall, asteroid (52) Europa is still well modeled as a smooth triaxial ellipsoid with dimensions constrained by observations obtained over several apparitions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Icaru

Trauma as counter-revolutionary colonisation: narratives from (post)revolutionary Egypt

We argue that multiple levels of trauma were present in Egypt before, during and after the 2011 revolution. Individual, social and political trauma constitute a triangle of traumatisation which was strategically employed by the Egyptian counter-revolutionary forces – primarily the army and the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood – to maintain their political and economic power over and above the social, economic and political interests of others. Through the destruction of physical bodies, the fragmentation and polarisation of social relations and the violent closure of the newly emerged political public sphere, these actors actively repressed the potential for creative and revolutionary transformation. To better understand this multi-layered notion of trauma, we turn to Habermas’ ‘colonisation of the lifeworld’ thesis which offers a critical lens through which to examine the wider political and economic structures and context in which trauma occurred as well as its effects on the personal, social and political realms. In doing so, we develop a novel conception of trauma that acknowledges individual, social and political dimensions. We apply this conceptual framing to empirical narratives of trauma in Egypt’s pre- and post-revolutionary phases, thus both developing a non-Western application of Habermas’ framework and revealing ethnographic accounts of the revolution by activists in Cairo

Employment relations and social stratification in contemporary urban China: does Goldthorpe’s class theory still work?

Goldthorpe’s class theory suggests that social class arises from employment relations in industrialised societies. This article assesses whether class in urban China can be approached from the same perspective by addressing three issues: 1) whether employment relations can capture China’s class structure, 2) how differently class is shaped by occupational structure in China, and 3) how useful class is to help us understand income inequality. Based on a recent Chinese social survey, the analysis finds three clusters of Chinese employees that fit into the ‘service’, ‘intermediate’ and ‘labour contract’ class typologies suggested by Goldthorpe’s class theory. Also, there is evidence that class links to occupational structures in a similar way between Chinese and Western societies. Finally class, when directly measured from employment relations, displays a reasonable degree of explanatory power for inter-class income inequality whereas the Goldthorpe class classification fails to differentiate between intermediate and labour class positions