Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland : mathematical modelling study

New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions

Widely differing screening and treatment practice for osteoporosis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases in the Swiss IBD cohort study.

Low bone mineral density (BMD) and osteoporosis remain frequent problems in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). Several guidelines with nonidentical recommendations exist and there is no general agreement regarding the optimal approach for osteoporosis screening in IBD patients. Clinical practice of osteoporosis screening and treatment remains insufficiently investigated.In the year 2014, a chart review of 877 patients included in the Swiss IBD Cohort study was performed to assess details of osteoporosis diagnostics and treatment. BMD measurements, osteoporosis treatment, and IBD medication were recorded.Our chart review revealed 253 dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans in 877 IBD patients; osteoporosis was prevalent in 20% of tested patients. We identified widely differing osteoporosis screening rates among centers (11%-62%). A multivariate logistic regression analysis identified predictive factors for screening including steroid usage, long disease duration, and perianal disease; even after correction for all risk factors, the study center remained a strong independent predictor (odds ratio 2.3-21 compared to the center with the lowest screening rate). Treatment rates for patients with osteoporosis were suboptimal (55% for calcium, 65% for vitamin D) at the time of chart review. Similarly, a significant fraction of patients with current steroid medication were not treated with vitamin D or calcium (treatment rates 53% for calcium, 58% for vitamin D). For only 29% of patients with osteoporosis bisphosphonate treatment was started. Treatment rates also differed among centers, generally following screening rates. In patients with longitudinal DXA scans, calcium and vitamin D usage was significantly associated with improvement of BMD over time.Our analysis identified inconsistent usage of osteoporosis screening and underuse of osteoporosis treatment in IBD patients. Increasing awareness of osteoporosis as a significant clinical problem in IBD patients might improve patient care

IL1B and DEFB1 Polymorphisms Increase Susceptibility to Invasive Mold Infection After Solid-Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in immune genes have been associated with susceptibility to invasive mold infection (IMI) among hematopoietic stem cell but not solid-organ transplant (SOT) recipients. METHODS: Twenty-four SNPs from systematically selected genes were genotyped among 1101 SOT recipients (715 kidney transplant recipients, 190 liver transplant recipients, 102 lung transplant recipients, 79 heart transplant recipients, and 15 recipients of other transplants) from the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. Association between SNPs and the end point were assessed by log-rank test and Cox regression models. Cytokine production upon Aspergillus stimulation was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from healthy volunteers and correlated with relevant genotypes. RESULTS: Mold colonization (n = 45) and proven/probable IMI (n = 26) were associated with polymorphisms in the genes encoding interleukin 1β (IL1B; rs16944; recessive mode, P = .001 for colonization and P = .00005 for IMI, by the log-rank test), interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (IL1RN; rs419598; P = .01 and P = .02, respectively), and β-defensin 1 (DEFB1; rs1800972; P = .001 and P = .0002, respectively). The associations with IL1B and DEFB1 remained significant in a multivariate regression model (P = .002 for IL1B rs16944; P = .01 for DEFB1 rs1800972). The presence of 2 copies of the rare allele of rs16944 or rs419598 was associated with reduced Aspergillus-induced interleukin 1β and tumor necrosis factor α secretion by PBMCs. CONCLUSIONS: Functional polymorphisms in IL1B and DEFB1 influence susceptibility to mold infection in SOT recipients. This observation may contribute to individual risk stratification

Pregnancy and delivery outcomes of HIV infected women in Switzerland 2003-2008

Objective: Rates of vertical HIV transmission between mother and child are low, allowing many HIV positive women to have children with near impunity. In this study, data from the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study were used to describe maternal characteristics and their association with pregnancy outcomes in HIV positive women. Study design: HIV positive women were followed prospectively during their pregnancies and deliveries by anonymous questionnaires between January 2003 and October 2008. Adverse pregnancy outcomes included preterm delivery, preeclampsia and gestational diabetes mellitus. Results: This study included 266 HIV positive women, of which 67 (25.2%) were first diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy. Thirty percent (n=80) of the women had pregnancy complications after 24weeks of gestation. Preterm delivery was noted in 72 (27%) patients. Other complications included preeclampsia (n=7; 2.6%) and gestational diabetes (n=7; 2.6%). Older maternal age was the only risk factor associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes (adjusted odds ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.12, P=0.02). Conclusions: HIV positive women, especially with advanced maternal age, have high-risk pregnancies and should be monitored as in an interdisciplinary setting. The preponderance of initial HIV diagnosis during pregnancy confirms the importance of HIV screening in pregnant wome

Using knowledge: the dilemmas of 'bridging research and policy'

The 'knowledge agenda' has become a central part of development discourse. This paper addresses one aspect of this discourse - the use of policy research in the social sciences - and the dilemmas that have been encountered by both development agencies and researchers in communicating and making use of that research. Development agencies as well as NGOs have initiated work to evaluate and document the effectiveness of research partnerships, knowledge capacity building and (social) science policy impact. As a multilateral initiative, the Global Development Network (GDN), and especially its 'Bridging Research and Policy' project, provides a vehicle to address issues related to research impact. Twelve perspectives on improving research and policy linkages are outlined to reveal that how the problem is defined shapes policy responses. Taken together, these explanations provide a multifaceted picture of the research-policy nexus indicating that there are many possible routes to 'bridging' research and policy. These diverse perspectives will be categorised into three broad categories of explanation: (i) supply-side; (ii) demand-led; and (iii) policy currents. However, knowledge is part of the solution to many development problems but not of itself a panacea

Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: A global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector. On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public-private partnerships are identified. © The Author(s) 2009

Haematopoietic cell transplantation in Switzerland, changes and results over 20 years: a report from the Swiss Blood Stem Cell Transplantation Working Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry 1997-2016.

In 1997, the Swiss Blood Stem Cell Transplantation Group (SBST) initiated a mandatory national registry for all haematopoietic stem cell transplants (HCTs) in Switzerland. As of 2016, after 20 years, information was available for 7899 patients who had received an HCT (2781 allogeneic [35%] and 5118 autologous [65%]). As some patients had more than one transplant the total number of transplants was 3067 allogeneic and 6448 autologous. We compared patient characteristics and outcome of the first decade (1997-2006) and second decade (2007-2016) of the registry. There were numerous changes over time. For allogeneic HCT, transplant rates, and therefore use of HCT technology, increased from 14 to 21.8 HCTs per 1 million inhabitants per year from the first to the second decade. Likewise autologous HCTs increased from 24.8 to 37.2 annually corrected for population growth. Allogeneic transplant recipients were older (38.4 vs 48.3 years) and more frequently had unrelated donors in the second decade. Similarly, age increased for recipients of autologous HCT (50.8 vs 56.4 years). Analysis of outcome showed that the probabilities of overall and progression-free survival were stable over time, in spite of the treatment of older and higher risk patients. In multivariate analysis, nonrelapse mortality decreased in recipients of allogeneic HCT (relative risk 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.87) over the two decades. Improvement in adjusted nonrelapse mortality compensated for the fact that higher risk patients were treated in more recent years, resulting in similar overall survival. Five-year survival probabilities were 56% (53-59%) in the first and 54% (51-57%) in the second decade for allogeneic HCT, and 59% (57-61%) in the first and 61% (59-63%) in the second decade for autologous HCT. Detailed analyses of changes over time are presented. This study included all HCTs performed in Switzerland during the period of observation and the data are useful for quality assurance programmes, healthcare cost estimation and healthcare planning. Between 50 and 60% of patients were long-term survivors after both types of HCT, indicating growing populations of surviving patients requiring long-term care and observation

Springback Force Considerations in Compliant Haptic Interfaces

This thesis investigates the potential benefits and challenges of using compliant mechanisms in the design of haptic interfaces. The benefits and challenges are presented with an emphasis on their inherent springback behavior and an active compensation approach. Design criteria for compliant mechanism joint candidates are reviewed and several joints are surveyed. Quantitative calculations of axial stiffness and maximum stress for five candidates are presented. Generalized analytical models of springback force and compensation torque are created to simulate the implementation of each joint candidate in a two degree-of-freedom planar pantograph. We use these models in the development and discussion of an analytical approach to predict the motor torques needed to actively compensate for the effects of springback.This approach relies on virtual work analyses of the haptic pantograph to determine the springback forces, compensation torques, haptic workspace, and available haptic force after compensation. A key to estimating the available haptic force is knowing that the force capability is different depending on the local springback force. If a component of the desired haptic force aligns with the springback force, then the two can work together, thus increasing the maximum magnitude of available haptic force beyond the nominal amount. Analytical and experimental results are presented. A detailed method of implementation is given along with a hardware demonstration of active compensation

Increases in condomless sex in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Condomless sex is a key driver of sexually transmitted diseases. In this study, we assess the long-term changes (2000-2013) of the occurrence of condomless sex among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort study. The frequencies with which HIV-infected individuals reported condomless sex were either stable or only weakly increasing for 2000-2008. For 2008-2013, these rates increased significantly for stable relationships among heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM) and for occasional relationships among MSM. Our results highlight the increasing public health challenge posed by condomless sex and show that condomless sex has been increasing even in the most recent years