Multivariate Hierarchical Frameworks for Modelling Delayed Reporting in Count Data

In many fields and applications count data can be subject to delayed reporting. This is where the total count, such as the number of disease cases contracted in a given week, may not be immediately available, instead arriving in parts over time. For short term decision making, the statistical challenge lies in predicting the total count based on any observed partial counts, along with a robust quantification of uncertainty. In this article we discuss previous approaches to modelling delayed reporting and present a multivariate hierarchical framework where the count generating process and delay mechanism are modelled simultaneously. Unlike other approaches, the framework can also be easily adapted to allow for the presence of under-reporting in the final observed count. To compare our approach with existing frameworks, one of which we extend to potentially improve predictive performance, we present a case study of reported dengue fever cases in Rio de Janeiro. Based on both within-sample and out-of-sample posterior predictive model checking and arguments of interpretability, adaptability, and computational efficiency, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each modelling framework.Comment: Biometrics (2019

Mass-to-light ratios of ellipticals in LCDM

We use the mass-to-light gradients in early-type galaxies to infer the global dark matter fraction, f_d=M_d/M_*, for these systems. We discuss implications about the total star formation efficiency in dark-matter halos and show that the trend of $f_{\rm d}$ with mass produces virial mass-to-light ratios which are consistent with semi-analitical models. Preliminary kurtosis analysis of the quasi-constant M/L galaxies in Romanowsky et al. seems at odd with Dekel et al. simulations.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Proceedings of XXIst IAP Colloquium, "Mass Profiles & Shapes of Cosmological Structures" (Paris, 4-9 July 2005), eds G. A. Mamon, F. Combes, C. Deffayet, B. Fort (Paris: EDP Sciences). Figure enlarged with respect the proceeding format, minor changes. Collaboration website at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~pns/pns_team.htm

Assessment of available anatomical characters for linking living mammals to fossil taxa in phylogenetic analyses

ORCID: 0000-0003-4919-8655© 2016 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. The file attached is the published version of the article

Incorporating weather information into real-time speed estimates: comparison of alternative models

Weather information is frequently requested by travelers. Prior literature indicates that inclement weather is one of the most important factors contributing to traffic congestion and crashes. In this paper, we propose a methodology to use real-time weather information to predict future speeds. The reason for doing so is to ultimately have the capability to disseminate weather-responsive travel time estimates to those requesting information. Using a stratified sampling technique, we select cases with different weather conditions (precipitation levels) and use a linear regression model (called the base model) and a statistical learning model (using Support Vector Machines for Regression) to predict 30-minute ahead speeds. One of the major inputs into a weather-responsive short-term speed prediction method is weather forecasts; however, weather forecasts may themselves be inaccurate. We assess the effects of such inaccuracies by means of simulations. The predictive accuracy of the SVR models show that statistical learning methods may be useful in bringing together streaming forecasted weather data and real-time information on downstream traffic conditions to enable travelers to make informed choices

Pengaruh Terapi Infra Red Terhadap Kemampuan Mobilitas Fisik Lansia

Infra red therapy for the elderlies in nursery can be categorized as one of new forms of complementary therapy that uses the medium of electromagnetic radiation at wavelength between 0,7 and 300 micrometer. The increasing numbers of elderly form a new perspective in the application of nursing care plan when the implication of the aging process undeniably affects the emergence of elderly health problems such as the decreasingrate of physical mobility. The purpose of this research is to reveal the effects of infra red therapy to physical mobility of elderlies in Sukabumi. The method used in this research is an experiment research, applying pre-test and post-test group research methods. 36 new elderly visitors in an infra red clinic are made respondents, all of whom are given 12 times therapy in 12 subsequent days. The elderlies physical mobility were measured in three variables, i.e. Range of Motion (ROM), muscular strength, and motion balance. The test results indicates mean score of elderlies physical mobility prior to the therapy at 60,4%, categorized in heavy physical immobility, while the mean score post of therapy application at 83,6%, categorized in medium physical immobility. A 23,2% physical mobility capability differential rate, obtained by subtracting the medium with the heavy category, with p 0,000 value indicates 95% rate of trust supports the conclusionthat Infra red therapy affects elderlies' physical mobility. By referring to this research, the nursery manager may consider infra red therapy as one of SOP for elderlies with physical mobility degradation. Keywords: Infra Red Therapy, Complementary therapy, Elderly, Physical mobilit

Perbedaan Tehnik Mendesinfeksi Alkohol 70% Antara Cara Spray Dengan Oles Saat Pemasangan Infus Dalam Menurunkan Jumlah Bakteri Pada Site Infuse Di Rumah Sakit Santo Yusup Bandung

The client who enter the hospital and show infection sign least then 72 hour proves that the period of incubation diasese happen the client enter the hospital and the infection that has shown the sign after 72 hour when the client in the hospital called nosocomial infection. Insident nosocomial infection in the hospital becames parameter of quality service given to the client in the hospital dan one of strategy to control nosocomial infection is disinfection method. This researches aims to know the the difference of desinfect technic by alcohol 70% between spray and spread method in using intravenous technic to reducing total bacteria on infusion site of St. Joseph hospital in Bandung The design of the researches used is experiment quasy, the parameter used is observation with numeric scale category and sample taken from 30 client consist of 15 client given spray method and the other using spread method.This researches used t-dependent test with non parametric Wilcoxon. The result of this researches show that p value is 0,317 bigger than α=0,05 so there are no difference between a Spray and Spread Method in using alcohol 70% desinfectan. The researches conclude that using alcohol 70% desinfectan with spray and spread method inserting infusion can be given in nursing intervention prosedur. The suggestion that can be given is using alcohol 70% with spray and spread can be alternative to desinfect to minimize nosocomial infection incident. Keywords : Desinfect technic by alcohol 70% between spray and spread method, site infuse

Hubungan antara Pola Asuh Orangtua(parenting Style) dengan Kesehatan Mental Remaja di Ciawi Kabupaten Tasikmalaya

Research on parenting style and its correlation with some aspects of their children live has yielded inconsistent results. Some studies on authoritarian indentifying significant positive imoact while other find negative. The aim of the currant study is to identify correlationship between parenting style and adolescence mental helth in Ciawi Tasikmalaya. This study used correlation methodology, and rank Spearman for analiyzing. Parenting style measurement used Parental Authority Questionnaire-Revised (PAQ-R) by Baumrind, and mental health used general mental health indicator by Dwairy. We recruited 57 partisipan who consist of pairs of parent and their children from purposive sampling technique. In general, the result shows there was not significant corelationship between parenting style and mental health, the rs is – 0.127. But the authoritarian was negative correlate with mental health, (rs = - 0.285), this mean that the more authoritarian, the mental health will much low. Based on the results, it may be concluded that parenting style independently can\u27t predict mental health asdolescence, but with one another factors can impact. Key word: Parenting Style, Mental Health, Adolescenc