Flight-deck automation: Promises and problems

The state of the art in human factors in flight-deck automation is presented. A number of critical problem areas are identified and broad design guidelines are offered. Automation-related aircraft accidents and incidents are discussed as examples of human factors problems in automated flight

Assessing the effect of advertising expenditures upon sales: a Bayesian structural time series model

We propose a robust implementation of the Nerlove--Arrow model using a Bayesian structural time series model to explain the relationship between advertising expenditures of a country-wide fast-food franchise network with its weekly sales. Thanks to the flexibility and modularity of the model, it is well suited to generalization to other markets or situations. Its Bayesian nature facilitates incorporating \emph{a priori} information (the manager's views), which can be updated with relevant data. This aspect of the model will be used to present a strategy of budget scheduling across time and channels.Comment: Published at Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asmb.246

Reclaiming human machine nature

Extending and modifying his domain of life by artifact production is one of the main characteristics of humankind. From the first hominid, who used a wood stick or a stone for extending his upper limbs and augmenting his gesture strength, to current systems engineers who used technologies for augmenting human cognition, perception and action, extending human body capabilities remains a big issue. From more than fifty years cybernetics, computer and cognitive sciences have imposed only one reductionist model of human machine systems: cognitive systems. Inspired by philosophy, behaviorist psychology and the information treatment metaphor, the cognitive system paradigm requires a function view and a functional analysis in human systems design process. According that design approach, human have been reduced to his metaphysical and functional properties in a new dualism. Human body requirements have been left to physical ergonomics or "physiology". With multidisciplinary convergence, the issues of "human-machine" systems and "human artifacts" evolve. The loss of biological and social boundaries between human organisms and interactive and informational physical artifact questions the current engineering methods and ergonomic design of cognitive systems. New developpment of human machine systems for intensive care, human space activities or bio-engineering sytems requires grounding human systems design on a renewed epistemological framework for future human systems model and evidence based "bio-engineering". In that context, reclaiming human factors, augmented human and human machine nature is a necessityComment: Published in HCI International 2014, Heraklion : Greece (2014

Transfer Entropy as a Log-likelihood Ratio

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic chi-squared distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalises the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense

Localized transverse bursts in inclined layer convection

We investigate a novel bursting state in inclined layer thermal convection in which convection rolls exhibit intermittent, localized, transverse bursts. With increasing temperature difference, the bursts increase in duration and number while exhibiting a characteristic wavenumber, magnitude, and size. We propose a mechanism which describes the duration of the observed bursting intervals and compare our results to bursting processes in other systems.Comment: 4 pages, 8 figure

Human Factors of Flight-deck Automation: NASA/Industry Workshop

The scope of automation, the benefits of automation, and automation-induced problems were discussed at a workshop held to determine whether those functions previously performed manually on the flight deck of commercial aircraft should always be automated in view of various human factors. Issues which require research for resolution were identified. The research questions developed are presented

Karhunen-Loeve representation of stochastic ocean waves

A new stochastic representation of a seastate is developed based on the Karhunen–Loeve spectral decomposition of stochastic signals and the use of Slepian prolate spheroidal wave functions with a tunable bandwidth parameter. The new representation allows the description of stochastic ocean waves in terms of a few independent sources of uncertainty when the traditional representation of a seastate in terms of Fourier series requires an order of magnitude more independent components. The new representation leads to parsimonious stochastic models of the ambient wave kinematics and of the nonlinear loads and responses of ships and offshore platforms. The use of the new representation is discussed for the derivation of critical wave episodes, the derivation of up-crossing rates of nonlinear loads and responses and the joint stochastic representation of correlated wave and wind profiles for use in the design of fixed or floating offshore wind turbines. The forecasting is also discussed of wave elevation records and vessel responses for use in energy yield enhancement of compliant floating wind turbines.ALSTOM (Firm)Ente nazionale per l'energia elettricab_TE

The impact of cockpit automation on crew coordination and communication. Volume 1: Overview, LOFT evaluations, error severity, and questionnaire data

The purpose was to examine, jointly, cockpit automation and social processes. Automation was varied by the choice of two radically different versions of the DC-9 series aircraft, the traditional DC-9-30, and the glass cockpit derivative, the MD-88. Airline pilot volunteers flew a mission in the simulator for these aircraft. Results show that the performance differences between the crews of the two aircraft were generally small, but where there were differences, they favored the DC-9. There were no criteria on which the MD-88 crews performed better than the DC-9 crews. Furthermore, DC-9 crews rated their own workload as lower than did the MD-88 pilots. There were no significant differences between the two aircraft types with respect to the severity of errors committed during the Line-Oriented Flight Training (LOFT) flight. The attitude questionnaires provided some interesting insights, but failed to distinguish between DC-9 and MD-88 crews

Intellectual Property and Alternatives: Strategies for Green Innovation

This report provides an analysis of how intellectual property rights (IPRs), and alternatives to IPRs, might operate in green innovation. Part I of the paper discusses the economics of green innovation, including the important role that will need to be played by the private sector. Part II discusses the IPR issues, principally involving patents, that may arise if and when GHG externalities are addressed through the appropriate pricing of greenhouse gases. Part III addresses alternatives to traditional patents and exclusive licenses, including patent pools, liability rules, and prizes

HST Images and KPNO Spectroscopy of the Binary Black Hole Candidate SDSS J153636.22+044127.0

We present HST WFPC2/PC images and KPNO 4-m longslit spectroscopy of the QSO SDSS J153636.22+044127.0, which we advanced as a candidate binary supermassive black hole. The images reveal a close companion coincident with the radio source identified by Wrobel & Laor (2009). It appears to be consistent with a M_g ~ -21.4 elliptical galaxy, if it is at the QSO redshift. The spectroscopy, however, shows no spatial offset of the red or blue Balmer line subcomponents. The companion is thus not the source of either the red or blue broad line systems; SDSS J153636.22+044127.0 cannot be explained as a chance superposition of objects, or as an ejected black hole. Over the Delta T=0.75 yr difference between the rest frame epochs of the present and SDSS spectroscopy, we find no velocity shift to within 40 km/s, nor any amplitude change in either broad line system. The lack of a shift can be admitted under the binary hypothesis if the implied radial velocity is a larger component of the full orbital velocity than was assumed in our earlier work. A strong test of the binary hypothesis requires yet longer temporal baselines. The lack of amplitude variations is unusual for the alternative explanation of this object as a "double-peaked" emitter; we further argue that SDSS J153636.22+044127.0 has unique spectral features that have no obvious analogue with other members of this class.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, revised and accepted for publication in Ap