Evaluating the economic return to public wind energy research and development in the United States

The U.S. government has invested in wind energy research since 1976. Building on a literature that has sought to develop and apply methods for retrospective benefit-to-cost evaluation for federal research programs, this study provides a quantitative analysis of the economic social return on these historical wind energy research investments. Importantly, the study applies multiple innovative methods and varies important input parameters to test the sensitivity of the results. The analysis considers public wind research expenditures and U.S. wind power deployment over the period 1976–2017, while also accounting for the full useful lifetime of wind projects built over this period. Assessed benefits include energy cost savings and health benefits due to reductions in air pollution. Overall, this analysis demonstrates sizable, positive economic returns on past wind energy research. Under the core analysis and with a 3% real discount rate, the net benefits from historical federal wind energy research investments are found to equal $31.4 billion, leading to an 18 to 1 benefit-to-cost ratio and an internal rate of return of 15.4%. Avoided carbon dioxide emissions are not valued in monetary terms, but are estimated at 1510 million metric tons. Alternative methods and input assumptions yield benefit-to-cost ratios that fall within a relatively narrow range from 7-to-1 to 21-to-1, reinforcing in broad terms the general finding of a sizable positive return on investment. Unsurprisingly, results are sensitive to the chosen discount rate, with higher discount rates leading to lower benefit-to-cost ratios, and lower discount rates yielding higher benefit-to-cost ratios

Impacts of variable renewable energy on wholesale markets and generating assets in the United States: A review of expectations and evidence

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs in the United States. Most studies of future scenarios indicate that VRE reduces wholesale energy prices and capacity factors of thermal generators. Traditional baseload generators are more exposed to these changing market conditions than low-capital cost and more flexible intermediate and peak-load generators. From analysis of historical data we find that VRE is already influencing the bulk power market through changes in temporal and geographic patterns areas with higher levels of VRE. The most significant observed impacts have concentrated in areas with significant VRE and/or nuclear generation along with limited transmission, with negative pricing also often occurring during periods with lower system-wide load. So far, however, VRE, has had a relatively modest impact on historical average annual wholesale prices across entire market regions, at least in comparison to other drivers. The reduction of natural gas prices is the primary contributor to the decline in wholesale prices since 2008. Similarly, VRE impacts on thermal plant retirements have been limited and there is little relationship between the location of recent retirements and VRE penetration levels. Although impacts on wholesale prices have been modest so far, impacts of VRE on the electricity market will be more significant under higher VRE penetrations

How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States?

Wind-plant performance declines with age, and the rate of decline varies between regions. The rate of performance decline is important when determining wind-plant financial viability and expected lifetime generation. We determine the rate of age-related performance decline in the United States wind fleet by evaluating generation records from 917 plants. We find the rate of performance decline to be 0.53%/year for older vintages of plants and 0.17%/year for newer vintages of plants on an energy basis for the first 10 years of operation, which is on the lower end of prior estimates in Europe. Unique to the United States, we find a significant drop in performance by 3.6% after 10 years, as plants lose eligibility for the production tax credit. Certain plant characteristics, such as the ratio of blade length to nameplate capacity, influence the rate of performance decline. These results indicate that the performance decline rate can be partially managed and influenced by policy

Opportunities for and challenges to further reductions in the “specific power” rating of wind turbines installed in the United States

A wind turbine’s “specific power” rating relates its capacity to the swept area of its rotor in terms of Watt per square meter. For a given generator capacity, specific power declines as rotor size increases. In land-rich but capacity-constrained wind power markets, such as the United States, developers have an economic incentive to maximize megawatt-hours per constrained megawatt, and so have favored turbines with ever-lower specific power. To date, this trend toward lower specific power has pushed capacity factors higher while reducing the levelized cost of energy. We employ geospatial levelized cost of energy analysis across the United States to explore whether this trend is likely to continue. We find that under reasonable cost scenarios (i.e. presuming that logistical challenges from very large blades are surmountable), low-specific-power turbines could continue to be in demand going forward. Beyond levelized cost of energy, the boost in market value that low-specific-power turbines provide could become increasingly important as wind penetration grows

Three-body decay of 6^{6}Be

Three-body correlations for the ground-state decay of the lightest two-proton emitter $^{6}$Be are studied both theoretically and experimentally. Theoretical studies are performed in a three-body hyperspherical-harmonics cluster model. In the experimental studies, the ground state of $^{6}$Be was formed following the $\alpha$ decay of a $^{10}$C beam inelastically excited through interactions with Be and C targets. Excellent agreement between theory and experiment is obtained demonstrating the existence of complicated correlation patterns which can elucidate the structure of $^{6}$Be and, possibly, of the A=6 isobar.Comment: 17 pages, 21 figures, 5 table

Deviations from Matthiessen's Rule for SrRuO3{\rm SrRuO_3} and CaRuO3{\rm CaRuO_3}

We have measured the change in the resistivity of thin films of ${\rm SrRuO_3}$ and ${\rm CaRuO_3}$ upon introducing point defects by electron irradiation at low temperatures, and we find significant deviations from Matthiessen's rule. For a fixed irradiation dose, the induced change in resistivity {\it decreases} with increasing temperature. Moreover, for a fixed temperature, the increase in resistivity with irradiation is found to be {\it sublinear}. We suggest that the observed behavior is due to the marked anisotropic scattering of the electrons together with their relatively short mean free path (both characteristic of many metallic oxides including cuprates) which amplify effects related to the Pippard ineffectiveness condition

Quantifying invasion resistance: the use of recruitment functions to control for propagule pressure

Invasive species distributions tend to be biased towards some habitats compared to others due to the combined effects of habitat-specific resistance to invasion and non-uniform propagule pressure. These two factors may also interact, with habitat resistance varying as a function of propagule supply rate. Recruitment experiments, in which the number of individuals recruiting into a population is measured under different propagule supply rates, can help us understand these interactions and quantify habitat resistance to invasion while controlling for variation in propagule supply rate. Here, we constructed recruitment functions for the invasive herb Hieracium lepidulum by sowing seeds at five different densities into six different habitat types in New Zealand's Southern Alps repeated over two successive years, and monitored seedling recruitment and survival over a four year period. We fitted recruitment functions that allowed us to estimate the total number of safe sites available for plants to occupy, which we used as a measure of invasion resistance, and tested several hypotheses concerning how invasion resistance differed among habitats and over time. We found significant differences in levels of H. lepidulum recruitment among habitats, which did not match the species' current distribution in the landscape. Local biotic and abiotic characteristics helped explain some of the between-habitat variation, with vascular plant species richness, vascular plant cover, and light availability, all positively correlated with the number of safe sites for recruitment. Resistance also varied over time however, with cohorts sown in successive years showing different levels of recruitment in some habitats but not others. These results show that recruitment functions can be used to quantify habitat resistance to invasion and to identify potential mechanisms of invasion resistance

The role of the alloy structure in the magnetic behavior of granular systems

The effect of grain size, easy magnetization axis and anisotropy constant distributions in the irreversible magnetic behavior of granular alloys is considered. A simulated granular alloy is used to provide a realistic grain structure for the Monte Carlo simulation of the ZFC-FC curves. The effect of annealing and external field is also studied. The simulation curves are in good agreement with the FC and ZFC magnetization curves measured on melt spun Cu-Co ribbons.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, submitted to PR

Calculated optical properties of Si, Ge, and GaAs under hydrostatic pressure

The macroscopic dielectric function in the random-phase-approximation without local field effect has been implemented using the local density approximation with an all electron, full-potential linear muffin-tin orbital basis-set. This method is used to investigate the optical properties of the semiconductors Si, Ge, and GaAs under hydrostatic pressure. The pressure dependence of the effective dielectric function is compared to the experimental data of Go\~ni and coworkers, and an excellent agreement is found when the so called ``scissors-operator'' shift (SOS) is used to account for the correct band gap at $\Gamma$. The effect of the $3d$ semi-core states in the interband transitions hardly changes the static dielectric function, $\epsilon_\infty$; however, their contribution to the intensity of absorption for higher photon energies is substantial. The spin-orbit coupling has a significant effect on $\epsilon_\infty$ of Ge and GaAs, but not of Si. The $E_1$ peak in the dynamical dielectric function is strongly underestimated for Si, but only slightly for Ge and GaAs, suggesting that excitonic effects might be important only for Si.Comment: 29 RevTex pages and 12 figs; in press in Physical Review