Incorporating weather information into real-time speed estimates: comparison of alternative models

Weather information is frequently requested by travelers. Prior literature indicates that inclement weather is one of the most important factors contributing to traffic congestion and crashes. In this paper, we propose a methodology to use real-time weather information to predict future speeds. The reason for doing so is to ultimately have the capability to disseminate weather-responsive travel time estimates to those requesting information. Using a stratified sampling technique, we select cases with different weather conditions (precipitation levels) and use a linear regression model (called the base model) and a statistical learning model (using Support Vector Machines for Regression) to predict 30-minute ahead speeds. One of the major inputs into a weather-responsive short-term speed prediction method is weather forecasts; however, weather forecasts may themselves be inaccurate. We assess the effects of such inaccuracies by means of simulations. The predictive accuracy of the SVR models show that statistical learning methods may be useful in bringing together streaming forecasted weather data and real-time information on downstream traffic conditions to enable travelers to make informed choices

Variability in measurements of micro lengths with a white light interferometer

The effect of the discretionary set‐up parameters scan length and initial scanner position on the measurements of length performed with a white light interferometer microscope was investigated. In both analyses, two reference materials of nominal lengths 40 and 200 µm were considered. Random effects and mixed effects models were fitted to the data from two separate experiments. Punctual and interval estimates of variance components were provided

Habitual accountability routines in the boardroom: How boards balance control and collaboration

open3siCorporate accountability is a complex chain of reporting that reaches from external stakeholders into the organization’s management structure. The transition from external to internal accountability mechanisms primarily occurs at the board of directors. Yet outside of incentive mechanisms, we know surprisingly little about how internal actors (management) are held to account by the representatives of external shareholders (the board). This paper explores the process of accountability at this transition point by documenting the routines used by boards to hold the firm’s management to account. In so doing we develop our understanding of the important transition between internal and external firm accountability.embargoed_20190401Nicholson, Gavin; Pugliese, Amedeo; Bezemer, Pieter JanNicholson, Gavin; Pugliese, Amedeo; Bezemer, Pieter Ja

Intralake heterogeneity of thermal responses to climate change: a study of large northern hemisphere lakes

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) measurements from various sources illustrate that lakes are warming in response to climate change. Most previous studies of geographical distributions of lake warming have tended to utilize data with limited spatial resolution of LSWTs, including single-point time series. Spatially resolved LSWT time-series are now available from satellite observations and some studies have investigated previously the intra-lake warming patterns in specific lakes (e.g., North American Great Lakes). However, across-lake comparisons of intra-lake warming differences have not yet been investigated at a large, across-continental scale, thus limiting our understanding of how intra-lake warming patterns differ more broadly. In this study, we analyze up to 20 years of satellite data from 19 lakes situated across the Northern Hemisphere, to investigate how LSWT changes vary across different lake surfaces. We find considerable intra-lake variability in warming trends across many lakes. The deepest areas of large lakes are characterized by a later onset of thermal stratification, a shorter stratified warming season and exhibit longer correlation timescales of LSWT anomalies. We show that deep areas of large lakes across the Northern Hemisphere as a result tend to display higher rates of warming of summer LSWT, arising from a greater temporal persistence in deep areas of the temperature anomalies associated with an earlier onset of thermal stratification. Utilization of single-point LSWT trends to represent changes in large lakes therefore suppresses important aspects of lake responses to climate change, whereas spatially resolved LSWT measurements can be exploited to provide more comprehensive understanding

Chemical tagging of three distinct populations of red giants in the globular cluster NGC 6752

We present aluminium, magnesium, and silicon abundances in the metal-poor globular cluster NGC 6752 for a sample of more than 130 red giants with homogeneous oxygen and sodium abundances. We find that [Al/Fe] shows a spread of about 1.4 dex among giants in NGC 6752 and is anticorrelated with [Mg/Fe] and [O/Fe] and correlated with [Na/Fe] and [Si/Fe]. These relations are not continuous in nature, but the distribution of stars is clearly clustered around three distinct Al values, low, intermediate, and high. These three groups nicely correspond to the three distinct sequences previously detected using Stromgren photometry along the red giant branch. These two independent findings strongly indicate the existence of three distinct stellar populations in NGC 6752. Comparing the abundances of O and Mg, we find that the population with intermediate chemical abundances cannot originate from material with the same composition of the most O- and Mg-poor population, diluted by material with that of the most O- and Mg-rich one. This calls for different polluters.Comment: 8 pages, 2 tables, 3 figures; uses emulateapj; accepted for publication on Astrophysical Journal Letter

Headwaters are critical reservoirs of microbial diversity for fluvial networks

Streams and rivers form conspicuous networks on the Earth and are among nature's most effective integrators. Their dendritic structure reaches into the terrestrial landscape and accumulates water and sediment en route from abundant headwater streams to a single river mouth. The prevailing view over the last decades has been that biological diversity also accumulates downstream. Here, we show that this pattern does not hold for fluvial biofilms, which are the dominant mode of microbial life in streams and rivers and which fulfil critical ecosystem functions therein. Using 454 pyrosequencing on benthic biofilms from 114 streams, we found that microbial diversity decreased from headwaters downstream and especially at confluences. We suggest that the local environment and biotic interactions may modify the influence of metacommunity connectivity on local biofilm biodiversity throughout the network. In addition, there was a high degree of variability in species composition among headwater streams that could not be explained by geographical distance between catchments. This suggests that the dendritic nature of fluvial networks constrains the distributional patterns of microbial diversity similar to that of animals. Our observations highlight the contributions that headwaters make in the maintenance of microbial biodiversity in fluvial networks

Control of seminal fluid protein expression via regulatory hubs in Drosophila melanogaster

Highly precise, yet flexible and responsive coordination of expression across groups of genes underpins the integrity of many vital functions. However, our understanding of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) is often hampered by the lack of experimentally tractable systems, by significant computational challenges derived from the large number of genes involved or from difficulties in the accurate identification and characterization of gene interactions. Here we used a tractable experimental system in which to study GRNs: the genes encoding the seminal fluid proteins that are transferred along with sperm (the ‘transferome’) in Drosophila melanogaster fruit flies. The products of transferome genes are core determinants of reproductive success and, to date, only transcription factors have been implicated in the modulation of their expression. Hence, as yet, we know nothing about the post-transcriptional mechanisms underlying the tight, responsive and precise regulation of this important gene set. We investigated this omission in the current study. We first used bioinformatics to identify potential regulatory motifs that linked the transferome genes in a putative interaction network. This predicted the presence of putative microRNA (miRNA) ‘hubs’. We then tested this prediction, that post-transcriptional regulation is important for the control of transferome genes, by knocking down miRNA expression in adult males. This abolished the ability of males to respond adaptively to the threat of sexual competition, indicating a regulatory role for miRNAs in the regulation of transferome function. Further bioinformatics analysis then identified candidate miRNAs as putative regulatory hubs and evidence for variation in the strength of miRNA regulation across the transferome gene set. The results revealed regulatory mechanisms that can underpin robust, precise and flexible regulation of multiple fitness-related genes. They also help to explain how males can adaptively modulate ejaculate composition

Optimizing passive acoustic sampling of bats in forests

Passive acoustic methods are increasingly used in biodiversity research and monitoring programs because they are cost-effective and permit the collection of large datasets. However, the accuracy of the results depends on the bioacoustic characteristics of the focal taxa and their habitat use. In particular, this applies to bats which exhibit distinct activity patterns in three-dimensionally structured habitats such as forests. We assessed the performance of 21 acoustic sampling schemes with three temporal sampling patterns and seven sampling designs. Acoustic sampling was performed in 32 forest plots, each containing three microhabitats: forest ground, canopy, and forest gap. We compared bat activity, species richness, and sampling effort using species accumulation curves fitted with the clench equation. In addition, we estimated the sampling costs to undertake the best sampling schemes. We recorded a total of 145,433 echolocation call sequences of 16 bat species. Our results indicated that to generate the best outcome, it was necessary to sample all three microhabitats of a given forest location simultaneously throughout the entire night. Sampling only the forest gaps and the forest ground simultaneously was the second best choice and proved to be a viable alternative when the number of available detectors is limited. When assessing bat species richness at the 1-km(2) scale, the implementation of these sampling schemes at three to four forest locations yielded highest labor cost-benefit ratios but increasing equipment costs. Our study illustrates that multiple passive acoustic sampling schemes require testing based on the target taxa and habitat complexity and should be performed with reference to cost-benefit ratios. Choosing a standardized and replicated sampling scheme is particularly important to optimize the level of precision in inventories, especially when rare or elusive species are expected

Individual-level personality influences social foraging and collective behaviour in wild birds

There is increasing evidence that animal groups can maintain coordinated behaviour and make collective decisions based on simple interaction rules. Effective collective action may be further facilitated by individual variation within groups, particularly through leader-follower polymorphisms. Recent studies have suggested that individual-level personality traits influence the degree to which individuals use social information, are attracted to conspecifics, or act as leaders/followers. However, evidence is equivocal and largely limited to laboratory studies. We use an automated data-collection system to conduct an experiment testing the relationship between personality and collective decision-making in the wild. First, we report that foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) show strikingly synchronous behaviour. A predictive model of collective decision-making replicates patterns well, suggesting simple interaction rules are sufficient to explain the observed social behaviour. Second, within groups, individuals with more reactive personalities behave more collectively, moving to within-flock areas of higher density. By contrast, proactive individuals tend to move to and feed at spatial periphery of flocks. Finally, comparing alternative simulations of flocking with empirical data, we demonstrate that variation in personality promotes within-patch movement while maintaining group cohesion. Our results illustrate the importance of incorporating individual variability in models of social behaviour