Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) are sensitive to atmospheric warming and have previously been shown to respond to regional changes in the climate. Using a combination of in situ and simulated surface temperatures from 20 Central European lakes, with data spanning between 50 and ∼100 years, we investigate the long-term increase in annually averaged LSWT. We demonstrate that Central European lakes are warming most in spring and experience a seasonal variation in LSWT trends. We calculate significant LSWT warming during the past few decades and illustrate, using a sequential t test analysis of regime shifts, a substantial increase in annually averaged LSWT during the late 1980s, in response to an abrupt shift in the climate. Surface air temperature measurements from 122 meteorological stations situated throughout Central Europe demonstrate similar increases at this time. Climatic modification of LSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems. Quantifying the response of LSWT increase to large-scale and abrupt climatic shifts is essential to understand how lakes will respond in the future

Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann–Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961–2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall

Winter daily precipitation variability over Cumbria, Northwest England

Daily precipitation totals at 55 sites were used to investigate geographic variability in winter (DJF) rainfall over Cumbria, NW England, over an 11-year period. Winter is the wettest season (> 800 mm in the mountainous Lake District), with rainfall mechanisms closely linked to North Atlantic forcing. The Lamb weather type catalogue was used to identify rainfall distributions under different wind directions. Precipitation magnitude over Cumbria is much more sensitive to a change in wind direction than the geographic pattern in rainfall, with southwesterly (easterly) winds producing the highest (lowest) spatially averaged daily rainfall totals of 8.2 mm (0.6 mm). S-mode principal components analysis was used to identify the main patterns of precipitation variability. Three principal components (PCs) were retained as being statistically significant (cumulative explained variance for unrotated PCs = 84.3%), with a correlated PC structure (direct oblimin rotation) best describing the spatial variance in rainfall. PC 1 has a very high index of strength (variance measure = 40.9), indicating that there is one dominant rainfall pattern. PC 1 shows a gradient between wetter conditions in southwest Cumbria and over the central Lake District and drier conditions in NE Cumbria, and is usually caused by active zonal west to southwest flows. Almost of equal importance to PC 1 is PC 3 (variance measure = 39.3), which has a more uniform rainfall distribution than PC 1 and is usually caused by fronts stalling over the region. PC 2, which shows an east to west decline in rainfall totals, is much less important than PCs 1 and 3 (variance measure = 18.6). PC 2's rainfall pattern can be caused by easterly flows with high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure over the Continent, or by strong southwesterly flows, with depressions often centred over Scotland. Finally, cluster analysis was carried out to identify precipitation regions for all days and for each wind direction. Clusters were found to be largely stable to changes in wind direction, with stations in the central Lake District often clustered together, thus highlighting the importance of orographic enhancement of rainfall in this region