Ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and related chemicals

The amended and adjusted Montreal Protocol continues to be successful at reducing emissions and atmospheric abundances of most controlled ozone-depleting substances (ODSs).Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Projec

Atmospheric science: the self-cleansing ability of prehistoric air

Isotopic data from an ice core have been used to estimate atmospheric oxidant levels during past climate transitions — pointing to relatively unexplored climate feedbacks as drivers of atmospheric composition

Photolysis of sulphuric acid as the source of sulphur oxides in the mesosphere of Venus

The sulphur cycle plays fundamental roles in the chemistry and climate of Venus. Thermodynamic equilibrium chemistry at the surface of Venus favours the production of carbonyl sulphide and to a lesser extent sulphur dioxide. These gases are transported to the middle atmosphere by the Hadley circulation cell. Above the cloud top, a sulphur oxidation cycle involves conversion of carbonyl sulphide into sulphur dioxide, which is then transported further upwards. A significant fraction of this sulphur dioxide is subsequently oxidized to sulphur trioxide and eventually reacts with water to form sulphuric acid. Because the vapour pressure of sulphuric acid is low, it readily condenses and forms an upper cloud layer at altitudes of 60–70 km, and an upper haze layer above 70 km (ref. 9), which effectively sequesters sulphur oxides from photochemical reactions. Here we present simulations of the fate of sulphuric acid in the Venusian mesosphere based on the Caltech/JPL kinetics model, but including the photolysis of sulphuric acid. Our model suggests that the mixing ratios of sulphur oxides are at least five times higher above 90 km when the photolysis of sulphuric acid is included. Our results are inconsistent with the previous model results but in agreement with the recent observations using ground-based microwave spectroscopy and by Venus Express

Challenges for the recovery of the ozone layer

The recovery of stratospheric ozone from past depletion is underway owing to the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which have been effective in phasing out the production and consumption of the major ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). However, there is uncertainty about the future rate of recovery. This uncertainty relates partly to unexpected emissions of controlled anthropogenic ODSs such as CCl₃F and slower-than-expected declines in atmospheric CCl₄. A further uncertainty surrounds emissions of uncontrolled short-lived anthropogenic ODSs (such as CH₂Cl₂ and CHCl₃), which observations show have been increasing in the atmosphere through 2017, as well as potential emission increases in natural ODSs (such as CH₃Cl and CH₃Br) induced by climate change, changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases N₂O and CH₄, and stratospheric geoengineering. These challenges could delay the return of stratospheric ozone levels to historical values, (for example, the abundance in 1980), by up to decades, depending on the future evolution of the emissions and other influencing factors. To mitigate the threats to future ozone recovery, it is crucial to ensure that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments continue to be implemented effectively in order to have firm control on future levels of ODSs. This action needs to be supported by an expansion of the geographic coverage of atmospheric observations of ODSs, by enhancing the ability of source attribution modelling, and by improving understanding of the interactions between climate change and ozone recovery

Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)

Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800 000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3 ppm, CH4 at 808.2 ppb and N2O at 273.0 ppb. The data are available at https://esgfnode.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality)

Can the envisaged reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions be detected by atmospheric observations?

The lower troposphere is an excellent receptacle, which integrates anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions over large areas. Therefore, atmospheric concentration observations over populated regions would provide the ultimate proof if sustained emissions changes have occurred. The most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), also shows large natural concentration variations, which need to be disentangled from anthropogenic signals to assess changes in associated emissions. This is in principle possible for the fossil fuel CO2 component (FFCO2) by high-precision radiocarbon (14C) analyses because FFCO2 is free of radiocarbon. Long-term observations of 14CO2 conducted at two sites in south-western Germany do not yet reveal any significant trends in the regional fossil fuel CO2 component. We rather observe strong inter-annual variations, which are largely imprinted by changes of atmospheric transport as supported by dedicated transport model simulations of fossil fuel CO2. In this paper, we show that, depending on the remoteness of the site, changes of about 7–26% in fossil fuel emissions in respective catchment areas could be detected with confidence by high-precision atmospheric 14CO2 measurements when comparing 5-year averages if these inter-annual variations were taken into account. This perspective constitutes the urgently needed tool for validation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions changes in the framework of the Kyoto protocol and successive climate initiatives

Short-Lived Trace Gases in the Surface Ocean and the Atmosphere

The two-way exchange of trace gases between the ocean and the atmosphere is important for both the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the oceans, including the global cycling of elements. Here we review these exchanges and their importance for a range of gases whose lifetimes are generally short compared to the main greenhouse gases and which are, in most cases, more reactive than them. Gases considered include sulphur and related compounds, organohalogens, non-methane hydrocarbons, ozone, ammonia and related compounds, hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Finally, we stress the interactivity of the system, the importance of process understanding for modeling, the need for more extensive field measurements and their better seasonal coverage, the importance of inter-calibration exercises and finally the need to show the importance of air-sea exchanges for global cycling and how the field fits into the broader context of Earth System Science

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts