A Homological Approach to Belief Propagation and Bethe Approximations

We introduce a differential complex of local observables given a decomposition of a global set of random variables into subsets. Its boundary operator allows us to define a transport equation equivalent to Belief Propagation. This definition reveals a set of conserved quantities under Belief Propagation and gives new insight on the relationship of its equilibria with the critical points of Bethe free energy.Comment: 14 pages, submitted for the 2019 Geometric Science of Information colloquiu

Risk factors for acquisition of hepatitis C virus infection: a case series and potential implications for disease surveillance

Background: Transmission of hepatitis C vims ( HCV) is strongly associated with use of contaminated blood products and injection drugs. Other "non-parental" modes of transmission including sexual activity have been increasingly recognized. We examined risk factors for acquiring HCV in patients who were referred to two tertiary care centers and enrolled in an antiviral therapy protocol. Methods: Interviews of 148 patients were conducted apart from their physician evaluation using a structured questionnaire covering demographics and risk factors for HCV acquisition. Results: Risk factors ( blood products, injection/intranasal drugs, razor blades/toothbrushes, body/ear piercing, occupational exposure, sexual activity) were identified in 141 (95.3%) of participants; 23 (15.5%) had one ( most frequently blood or drug exposure), 41 (27.7%) had two, and 84 (53.4%) had more than two risk factors. No patient reported sexual activity as a sole risk factor. Body piercing accounted for a high number of exposures in women. Men were more likely to have exposure to street drugs but less exposure to blood products than women. Blood product exposure was less common in younger than older HCV patients. Conclusion: One and often multi le risk factors could be identified in nearly all HCV-infected patients seen in a referral practice. None named sexual transmission as the sole risk factor. The development of a more complete profile of factors contributing to transmission of HCV infection may assist in clinical and preventive efforts. The recognition of the potential presence of multiple risk factors may have important implications in the a roach to HCV surveillance, and particularly the use of hierarchical algorithms in the study of risk factors

Population-level effect of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection increases acquisition and transmission of HIV, but the results of trials measuring the impact of HSV-2 therapy on HIV genital shedding and HIV acquisition are mixed, and the potential impact of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV at the population level is unknown. METHODS: The effects of episodic and suppressive HSV-2 therapy were simulated using the individual-level model STDSIM fitted to data from Cotonou, Benin (relatively low HIV prevalence) and Kisumu, Kenya (high HIV prevalence). Clinician- and patient-initiated episodic therapy, started when symptomatic, were assumed to reduce ulcer duration. Suppressive therapy, given regardless of symptoms, was also assumed to reduce ulcer frequency and HSV-2 infectiousness. RESULTS: Clinician-initiated episodic therapy in the general population had almost no effect on the incidence of HIV. The impact of patient-initiated therapy was higher because of earlier treatment initiation, but still low (20% in the long term. Impact was increased in both cities by also treating a proportion of their clients. Long-term suppressive therapy with high coverage in the general population could reduce HIV incidence by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that HSV-2 therapy could potentially have a population-level impact on the incidence of HIV, especially in more concentrated epidemics. However, a substantial impact requires high coverage and long duration therapy, or very high symptom recognition and treatment-seeking behaviour

Temperature effects on zoeal morphometric traits and intraspecific variability in the hairy crab Cancer setosus across latitude

International audiencePhenotypic plasticity is an important but often ignored ability that enables organisms, within species-specific physiological limits, to respond to gradual or sudden extrinsic changes in their environment. In the marine realm, the early ontogeny of decapod crustaceans is among the best known examples to demonstrate a temperature-dependent phenotypic response. Here, we present morphometric results of larvae of the hairy crab , the embryonic development of which took place at different temperatures at two different sites (Antofagasta, 23°45′ S; Puerto Montt, 41°44′ S) along the Chilean Coast. Zoea I larvae from Puerto Montt were significantly larger than those from Antofagasta, when considering embryonic development at the same temperature. Larvae from Puerto Montt reared at 12 and 16°C did not differ morphometrically, but sizes of larvae from Antofagasta kept at 16 and 20°C did, being larger at the colder temperature. Zoea II larvae reared in Antofagasta at three temperatures (16, 20, and 24°C) showed the same pattern, with larger larvae at colder temperatures. Furthermore, larvae reared at 24°C, showed deformations, suggesting that 24°C, which coincides with temperatures found during strong EL Niño events, is indicative of the upper larval thermal tolerance limit.   is exposed to a wide temperature range across its distribution range of about 40° of latitude. Phenotypic plasticity in larval offspring does furthermore enable this species to locally respond to the inter-decadal warming induced by El Niño. Morphological plasticity in this species does support previously reported energetic trade-offs with temperature throughout early ontogeny of this species, indicating that plasticity may be a key to a species' success to occupy a wide distribution range and/or to thrive under highly variable habitat conditions

Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points Assessment as a Tool to Respond to Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) strain H5N1 has had direct and indirect economic impacts arising from direct mortality and control programmes in over 50 countries reporting poultry outbreaks. HPAI H5N1 is now reported as the most widespread and expensive zoonotic disease recorded and continues to pose a global health threat. The aim of this research was to assess the potential of utilising Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP) assessments in providing a framework for a rapid response to emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This novel approach applies a scientific process, widely used in food production systems, to assess risks related to a specific emerging health threat within a known zoonotic disease hotspot. We conducted a HACCP assessment for HPAI viruses within Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade and relate our findings to the existing literature. Our HACCP assessment identified poultry flock isolation, transportation, slaughter, preparation and consumption as critical control points for Vietnam’s domestic poultry trade. Introduction of the preventative measures highlighted through this HACCP evaluation would reduce the risks posed by HPAI viruses and pressure on the national economy. We conclude that this HACCP assessment provides compelling evidence for the future potential that HACCP analyses could play in initiating a rapid response to emerging infectious diseases

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Rapidly rotating second-generation progenitors for the blue hook stars of {\omega} Cen

Horizontal Branch stars belong to an advanced stage in the evolution of the oldest stellar galactic population, occurring either as field halo stars or grouped in globular clusters. The discovery of multiple populations in these clusters, that were previously believed to have single populations gave rise to the currently accepted theory that the hottest horizontal branch members (the blue hook stars, which had late helium-core flash ignition, followed by deep mixing) are the progeny of a helium-rich "second generation" of stars. It is not known why such a supposedly rare event (a late flash followed by mixing) is so common that the blue hook of {\omega} Cen contains \sim 30% of horizontal branch stars 10 , or why the blue hook luminosity range in this massive cluster cannot be reproduced by models. Here we report that the presence of helium core masses up to \sim 0.04 solar masses larger than the core mass resulting from evolution is required to solve the luminosity range problem. We model this by taking into account the dispersion in rotation rates achieved by the progenitors, whose premain sequence accretion disc suffered an early disruption in the dense environment of the cluster's central regions where second-generation stars form. Rotation may also account for frequent late-flash-mixing events in massive globular clusters.Comment: 44 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables in Nature, online june 22, 201

Physical activity and clustered cardiovascular disease risk factors in young children: a cross-sectional study (the IDEFICS study)

<p>Background The relevance of physical activity (PA) for combating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in children has been highlighted, but to date there has been no large-scale study analyzing that association in children aged ≤9 years of age. This study sought to evaluate the associations between objectively-measured PA and clustered CVD risk factors in a large sample of European children, and to provide evidence for gender-specific recommendations of PA.</p> <p>Methods Cross-sectional data from a longitudinal study in 16,224 children aged 2 to 9 were collected. Of these, 3,120 (1,016 between 2 to 6 years, 2,104 between 6 to 9 years) had sufficient data for inclusion in the current analyses. Two different age-specific and gender-specific clustered CVD risk scores associated with PA were determined. First, a CVD risk factor (CRF) continuous score was computed using the following variables: systolic blood pressure (SBP), total triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) ratio, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and sum of two skinfolds (score CRFs). Secondly, another CVD risk score was obtained for older children containing the score CRFs + the cardiorespiratory fitness variable (termed score CRFs + fit). Data used in the current analysis were derived from the IDEFICS (‘Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS’) study.</p> <p>Results In boys <6 years, the odds ratios (OR) for CVD risk were elevated in the least active quintile of PA (OR: 2.58) compared with the most active quintile as well as the second quintile for vigorous PA (OR: 2.91). Compared with the most active quintile, older children in the first, second and third quintiles had OR for CVD risk score CRFs + fit ranging from OR 2.69 to 5.40 in boys, and from OR 2.85 to 7.05 in girls.</p> <p>Conclusions PA is important to protect against clustering of CVD risk factors in young children, being more consistent in those older than 6 years. Healthcare professionals should recommend around 60 and 85 min/day of moderate-to-vigorous PA, including 20 min/day of vigorous PA.</p&gt

Reticulated origin of domesticated emmer wheat supports a dynamic model for the emergence of agriculture in the fertile crescent

We used supernetworks with datasets of nuclear gene sequences and novel markers detecting retrotransposon insertions in ribosomal DNA loci to reassess the evolutionary relationships among tetraploid wheats. We show that domesticated emmer has a reticulated genetic ancestry, sharing phylogenetic signals with wild populations from all parts of the wild range. The extent of the genetic reticulation cannot be explained by post-domestication gene flow between cultivated emmer and wild plants, and the phylogenetic relationships among tetraploid wheats are incompatible with simple linear descent of the domesticates from a single wild population. A more parsimonious explanation of the data is that domesticated emmer originates from a hybridized population of different wild lineages. The observed diversity and reticulation patterns indicate that wild emmer evolved in the southern Levant, and that the wild emmer populations in south-eastern Turkey and the Zagros Mountains are relatively recent reticulate descendants of a subset of the Levantine wild populations. Based on our results we propose a new model for the emergence of domesticated emmer. During a pre-domestication period, diverse wild populations were collected from a large area west of the Euphrates and cultivated in mixed stands. Within these cultivated stands, hybridization gave rise to lineages displaying reticulated genealogical relationships with their ancestral populations. Gradual movement of early farmers out of the Levant introduced the pre-domesticated reticulated lineages to the northern and eastern parts of the Fertile Crescent, giving rise to the local wild populations but also facilitating fixation of domestication traits. Our model is consistent with the protracted and dispersed transition to agriculture indicated by the archaeobotanical evidence, and also with previous genetic data affiliating domesticated emmer with the wild populations in southeast Turkey. Unlike other protracted models, we assume that humans played an intuitive role throughout the process.Natural Environment Research Council [NE/E015948/1]; Slovak Research and Development Agency [APVV-0661-10, APVV-0197-10]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Injuries, Ill-Health and Fatalities in White Water Rafting and White Water Paddling

White water (WW) activities such as paddling (canoeing and kayaking) and rafting are popular sports for recreational and professional participants. An increase in participation has been seen worldwide. However, these activities come with a risk of injury and even death if not conducted safely. A review was conducted to identify the types of injuries and ill-health that occur as a result of these activities. Injury and fatality rates were assessed to establish the risk attributed to these activities. Web of Science, PubMed, Ergonomics Abstracts and PsycINFO databases were searched and a total of 16 published articles were identified and reviewed. The shoulders and back were the most vulnerable sites for injury in WW paddling. Injuries to the face and lower limbs were most common in WW rafters. However, injury rates are low and estimates are discussed. Due to different methods used across the studies, the reported injury rates are not comparable. This review identified three illnesses incurred through WW activities. There may be more but these are not currently reported in the literature. A relative paucity of studies regarding injuries and fatalities in WW activities was identified. Directions for future research are suggested and discussed