Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'

Evidence of a metabolic memory to early-life dietary restriction in male C57BL/6 mice

<p>Background: Dietary restriction (DR) extends lifespan and induces beneficial metabolic effects in many animals. What is far less clear is whether animals retain a metabolic memory to previous DR exposure, that is, can early-life DR preserve beneficial metabolic effects later in life even after the resumption of ad libitum (AL) feeding. We examined a range of metabolic parameters (body mass, body composition (lean and fat mass), glucose tolerance, fed blood glucose, fasting plasma insulin and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), insulin sensitivity) in male C57BL/6 mice dietary switched from DR to AL (DR-AL) at 11 months of age (mid life). The converse switch (AL-DR) was also undertaken at this time. We then compared metabolic parameters of the switched mice to one another and to age-matched mice maintained exclusively on an AL or DR diet from early life (3 months of age) at 1 month, 6 months or 10 months post switch.</p> <p>Results: Male mice dietary switched from AL-DR in mid life adopted the metabolic phenotype of mice exposed to DR from early life, so by the 10-month timepoint the AL-DR mice overlapped significantly with the DR mice in terms of their metabolic phenotype. Those animals switched from DR-AL in mid life showed clear evidence of a glycemic memory, with significantly improved glucose tolerance relative to mice maintained exclusively on AL feeding from early life. This difference in glucose tolerance was still apparent 10 months after the dietary switch, despite body mass, fasting insulin levels and insulin sensitivity all being similar to AL mice at this time.</p> <p>Conclusions: Male C57BL/6 mice retain a long-term glycemic memory of early-life DR, in that glucose tolerance is enhanced in mice switched from DR-AL in mid life, relative to AL mice, even 10 months following the dietary switch. These data therefore indicate that the phenotypic benefits of DR are not completely dissipated following a return to AL feeding. The challenge now is to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying these effects, the time course of these effects and whether similar interventions can confer comparable benefits in humans.</p&gt

Biohydrogenation of 22:6n-3 by Butyrivibrio proteoclasticus P18

Background: Rumen microbes metabolize 22:6n-3. However, pathways of 22:6n-3 biohydrogenation and ruminal microbes involved in this process are not known. In this study, we examine the ability of the well-known rumen biohydrogenating bacteria, Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens D1 and Butyrivibrio proteoclasticus P18, to hydrogenate 22:6n-3. Results: Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens D1 failed to hydrogenate 22:6n-3 (0.5 to 32 mu g/mL) in growth medium containing autoclaved ruminal fluid that either had or had not been centrifuged. Growth of B. fibrisolvens was delayed at the higher 22:6n-3 concentrations; however, total volatile fatty acid production was not affected. Butyrivibrio proteoclasticus P18 hydrogenated 22:6n-3 in growth medium containing autoclaved ruminal fluid that either had or had not been centrifuged. Biohydrogenation only started when volatile fatty acid production or growth of B. proteoclasticus P18 had been initiated, which might suggest that growth or metabolic activity is a prerequisite for the metabolism of 22:6n-3. The amount of 22:6n-3 hydrogenated was quantitatively recovered in several intermediate products eluting on the gas chromatogram between 22:6n-3 and 22:0. Formation of neither 22:0 nor 22:6 conjugated fatty acids was observed during 22:6n-3 metabolism. Extensive metabolism was observed at lower initial concentrations of 22:6n-3 (5, 10 and 20 mu g/mL) whereas increasing concentrations of 22:6n-3 (40 and 80 mu g/mL) inhibited its metabolism. Stearic acid formation (18:0) from 18:2n-6 by B. proteoclasticus P18 was retarded, but not completely inhibited, in the presence of 22:6n-3 and this effect was dependent on 22:6n-3 concentration. Conclusions: For the first time, our study identified ruminal bacteria with the ability to hydrogenate 22:6n-3. The gradual appearance of intermediates indicates that biohydrogenation of 22:6n-3 by B. proteoclasticus P18 occurs by pathways of isomerization and hydrogenation resulting in a variety of unsaturated 22 carbon fatty acids. During the simultaneous presence of 18:2n-6 and 22:6n-3, B. proteoclasticus P18 initiated 22:6n-3 metabolism before converting 18:1 isomers into 18:0

A qualitative study of professional and carer perceptions of the threats to safe hospital discharge for stroke and hip fracture patients in the English National Health Service

Background: Hospital discharge is a vulnerable transitional stage in patient care. This qualitative study investigated the views of healthcare professionals and patients about the threats to safe hospital discharge with aim of identifying contributory and latent factors. The study was undertaken in two regional health and social care systems in the English National Health Service, each comprising three acute hospitals, community and primary care providers and municipal social care services. The study focused on the threats to safe discharge for hip fracture and stroke patients as exemplars of complex care transitions. Methods: A qualitative study involving narrative interviews with 213 representative stakeholders and professionals involved in discharge planning and care transition activities. Narratives were analysed in line with ‘systems’ thinking to identify proximal (active) and distal (latent) factors, and the relationships between them. Results: Three linked categories of commonly and consistently identified threat to safe discharge were identified:(1) ‘direct’ patient harms comprising falls, infection, sores and ulceration, medicines-related issues, and relapse; (2) proximal ‘contributing’ factors including completion of tests, assessment of patient, management of equipment and medicines, care plan, follow-up care and patient education; and distal ‘latent’ factors including discharge planning, referral processes, discharge timing, resources constraints, and organisational demands. Conclusion: From the perspective of stakeholders, the study elaborates the relationship between patient harms and systemic factors in the context of hospital discharge. It supports the importance of communication and collaboration across occupational and organisational boundaries, but also the challenges to supporting such communication with the inherent complexity of the care system

A genetic contribution from the Far East into Ashkenazi Jews via the ancient Silk Road

Contemporary Jews retain a genetic imprint from their Near Eastern ancestry, but obtained substantial genetic components from their neighboring populations during their history. Whether they received any genetic contribution from the Far East remains unknown, but frequent communication with the Chinese has been observed since the Silk Road period. To address this issue, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation from 55,595 Eurasians are analyzed. The existence of some eastern Eurasian haplotypes in eastern Ashkenazi Jews supports an East Asian genetic contribution, likely from Chinese. Further evidence indicates that this connection can be attributed to a gene flow event that occurred less than 1.4 kilo-years ago (kya), which falls within the time frame of the Silk Road scenario and fits well with historical records and archaeological discoveries. This observed genetic contribution from Chinese to Ashkenazi Jews demonstrates that the historical exchange between Ashkenazim and the Far East was not confined to the cultural sphere but also extended to an exchange of genes

Achieving temperature-size changes in a unicellular organism.

The temperature-size rule (TSR) is an intraspecific phenomenon describing the phenotypic plastic response of an organism size to the temperature: individuals reared at cooler temperatures mature to be larger adults than those reared at warmer temperatures. The TSR is ubiquitous, affecting >80% species including uni- and multicellular groups. How the TSR is established has received attention in multicellular organisms, but not in unicells. Further, conceptual models suggest the mechanism of size change to be different in these two groups. Here, we test these theories using the protist Cyclidium glaucoma. We measure cell sizes, along with population growth during temperature acclimation, to determine how and when the temperature-size changes are achieved. We show that mother and daughter sizes become temporarily decoupled from the ratio 2:1 during acclimation, but these return to their coupled state (where daughter cells are half the size of the mother cell) once acclimated. Thermal acclimation is rapid, being completed within approximately a single generation. Further, we examine the impact of increased temperatures on carrying capacity and total biomass, to investigate potential adaptive strategies of size change. We demonstrate no temperature effect on carrying capacity, but maximum supported biomass to decrease with increasing temperature

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

In both the observational record and atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the last ∼∼ 150 years, short-lived negative radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol, following explosive eruptions, causes sudden global-mean cooling of up to ∼∼ 0.3 K. This is about five times smaller than expected from the transient climate response parameter (TCRP, K of global-mean surface air temperature change per W m−2 of radiative forcing increase) evaluated under atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at 1 % yr−1. Using the step model (Good et al. in Geophys Res Lett 38:L01703, 2011. doi:10.​1029/​2010GL045208), we confirm the previous finding (Held et al. in J Clim 23:2418–2427, 2010. doi:10.​1175/​2009JCLI3466.​1) that the main reason for the discrepancy is the damping of the response to short-lived forcing by the thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Although the step model includes this effect, it still overestimates the volcanic cooling simulated by AOGCMs by about 60 %. We show that this remaining discrepancy can be explained by the magnitude of the volcanic forcing, which may be smaller in AOGCMs (by 30 % for the HadCM3 AOGCM) than in off-line calculations that do not account for rapid cloud adjustment, and the climate sensitivity parameter, which may be smaller than for increasing CO2 (40 % smaller than for 4 × CO2 in HadCM3)

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Pregnancy, prescription medicines and the potential risk of herb-drug interactions:a cross-sectional survey

Funding All funding was from institutional resource. JSM, AS are employed by the University of Aberdeen. DS is employed by the Robert Gordon University. BP and CR are employed by NHS Scotland. ARP and MAH are employed by the Hamad Medical Corporation. Qatar. NI is a postgraduate student at the University of Aberdeen.Peer reviewedPublisher PD