HIV prevention trial design in an era of effective pre-exposure prophylaxis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness protecting at-risk individuals from HIV-1 infection. Despite this record of effectiveness, concerns persist about the diminished protective effect observed in women compared with men and the influence of adherence and risk behaviors on effectiveness in targeted subpopulations. Furthermore, the high prophylactic efficacy of the first PrEP agent, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC), presents challenges for demonstrating the efficacy of new candidates. Trials of new agents would typically require use of non-inferiority (NI) designs in which acceptable efficacy for an experimental agent is determined using pre-defined margins based on the efficacy of the proven active comparator (i.e. TDF/FTC) in placebo-controlled trials. Setting NI margins is a critical step in designing registrational studies. Under- or over-estimation of the margin can call into question the utility of the study in the registration package. The dependence on previous placebo-controlled trials introduces the same issues as external/historical controls. These issues will need to be addressed using trial design features such as re-estimated NI margins, enrichment strategies, run-in periods, crossover between study arms, and adaptive re-estimation of sample sizes. These measures and other innovations can help to ensure that new PrEP agents are made available to the public using stringent standards of evidence

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

A novel approach to improve cardiac performance: cardiac myosin activators

Decreased systolic function is a central factor in the pathogenesis of heart failure, yet there are no safe medical therapies to improve cardiac function in patients. Currently available inotropes, such as dobutamine and milrinone, increase cardiac contractility at the expense of increased intracellular concentrations of calcium and cAMP, contributing to increased heart rate, hypotension, arrhythmias, and mortality. These adverse effects are inextricably linked to their inotropic mechanism of action. A new class of pharmacologic agents, cardiac myosin activators, directly targets the kinetics of the myosin head. In vitro studies have demonstrated that these agents increase the rate of effective myosin cross-bridge formation, increasing the duration and amount of myocyte contraction, and inhibit non-productive consumption of ATP, potentially improving myocyte energy utilization, with no effect on intracellular calcium or cAMP. Animal models have shown that this novel mechanism increases the systolic ejection time, resulting in improved stroke volume, fractional shortening, and hemodynamics with no effect on myocardial oxygen demand, culminating in significant increases in cardiac efficiency. A first-in-human study in healthy volunteers with the lead cardiac myosin activator, CK-1827452, as well as preliminary results from a study in patients with stable chronic heart failure, have extended these findings to humans, demonstrating significant increases in systolic ejection time, fractional shortening, stroke volume, and cardiac output. These studies suggest that cardiac myosin activators offer the promise of a safe and effective treatment for heart failure. A program of clinical studies are being planned to test whether CK-1827452 will fulfill that promise

Effect of nonoptimal imaging on the relationship between the measured degree of symptomatic carotid stenosis and risk of ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Some recent studies of noninvasive carotid imaging have identified high rates of inappropriate decision-making about endarterectomy compared with conventional arterial angiography (CAA), but there is substantial inconsistency across the published literature. CAA is usually regarded as the gold standard for carotid imaging, partly because the degree of angiographic stenosis is a powerful predictor of ischemic stroke and hence of benefit from endarterectomy. However, there are very few published data on the extent to which predictive power varies with type of CAA or the number and quality of views of the stenosis obtained. METHODS: We analyzed measurements of stenosis made by 2 independent observers on 967 consecutive patients randomized to medial treatment alone in the European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST). We determined prediction of 3-year risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke (as a hazard ratio from a Cox model and as the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) in relation to the technique of angiography, the number and quality of views of the stenosis, and the use of 2 independent measurements. RESULTS: Using 2 independent measurements of stenosis increased predictive power slightly, but the effect was much smaller than that attributable to the type of CAA and the number of views of the stenosis. Prognostic value was greater in patients who had selective carotid injection CAA and at least biplane views (AUC, 0.75; 0.68 to 0.82) than in patients with only a single view or aortic arch injection CAA (AUC, 0.65; 0.56 to 0.73; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The dependence of the prognostic value of CAA on the type of angiography and the number of views of the stenosis obtained has implications for the future development and validation of noninvasive methods of carotid imaging

Medium-term variability of blood pressure and potential underdiagnosis of hypertension in patients with previous transient ischemic attack or minor stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for stroke. However, the variability of systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP) means that single measurements do not provide a reliable measure of usual BP. Although 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring can correct for the effects of short-term variation, there is also important medium-term variability. The extent of medium-term variability in BP is most marked in patients with a previous transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke. We studied the potential impact of this variability on the likely recognition of hypertension. METHODS: We analyzed multiple repeated measurements of BP in 3 large cohorts with a TIA or minor stroke: the UK-TIA trial (n=2098), the Dutch TIA trial (n=2953), and the European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST; n=2646). Regression dilution ratios and coefficients of variation were calculated for SBP and DBP from baseline and repeated measurements during the subsequent 12 months. Categorization based on single baseline measurements was also compared with categorization based on the subsequent "usual" BP. RESULTS: The correlation between measurements of BP at baseline and 3 to 5 months later was poor (R(2) from 0.17 to 0.31 for SBP and from 0.10 to 0.20 for DBP). Categorization of patients by baseline values resulted in substantial misclassification in relation to usual BP. For example, of patients with an SBP or=140 mm Hg was 31.6% in the UK-TIA trial, 48.2% in the Dutch TIA trial, and 57.7% in the ECST. At least 3 consecutive measurements of SBP 90% certain that subsequent usual SBP would not be >or=140 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Given the greater medium-term variability of BP in patients with a previous TIA or stroke than in the general population, single measurements of "normal" or "low" BP will substantially underestimate the true prevalence of hypertension

Neonatal regulatory behavior problems are predicted by maternal early pregnancy overweight and obesity:findings from the prospective PREDO Study

Abstract Introduction: Maternal overweight/obesity and comorbid hypertensive disorders and gestational diabetes associate with neurodevelopmental delay in the offspring in childhood. We hypothesize that these maternal conditions associate also with the offspring regulatory behavior problems and impact on neurodevelopment via the offspring regulatory behavior. Methods: A number of 3117 women of the PREDO Study filled in a questionnaire on regulatory behavior problems at the child’s mean age of 16.9 days and 2116 of them a questionnaire on developmental milestones at the child’s mean age of 42.2 months. Data on maternal BMI and comorbid disorders come from the Finnish Medical Birth Register. Results: Offspring of overweight/obese mothers in comparison to normal weight mothers had higher levels of regulatory behavior problems and 22% (95% confidence interval 5–42%) higher odds of having problems on multiple domains of behavioral regulation at the mean age of 16.9 days. Offspring regulatory behavior problems partially mediated the association between maternal overweight/obesity and developmental milestones comprising communication, gross motor, fine motor, problem solving, and personal/social domains of development. Comorbid disorders did not associate with offspring regulatory behavior problems. Conclusion: Regulatory behavior problems of the offspring have prenatal origins and partially mediate the effects of maternal overweight/obesity on offspring neurodevelopment