Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators.

In diverse fields of empirical research-including many in the biological sciences-attempts are made to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome into its effects via a number of different pathways. For example, we may wish to separate the effect of heavy alcohol consumption on systolic blood pressure (SBP) into effects via body mass index (BMI), via gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and via other pathways. Much progress has been made, mainly due to contributions from the field of causal inference, in understanding the precise nature of statistical estimands that capture such intuitive effects, the assumptions under which they can be identified, and statistical methods for doing so. These contributions have focused almost entirely on settings with a single mediator, or a set of mediators considered en bloc; in many applications, however, researchers attempt a much more ambitious decomposition into numerous path-specific effects through many mediators. In this article, we give counterfactual definitions of such path-specific estimands in settings with multiple mediators, when earlier mediators may affect later ones, showing that there are many ways in which decomposition can be done. We discuss the strong assumptions under which the effects are identified, suggesting a sensitivity analysis approach when a particular subset of the assumptions cannot be justified. These ideas are illustrated using data on alcohol consumption, SBP, BMI, and GGT from the Izhevsk Family Study. We aim to bridge the gap from "single mediator theory" to "multiple mediator practice," highlighting the ambitious nature of this endeavor and giving practical suggestions on how to proceed

Investigating the effects of long-term dornase alfa use on lung function using registry data.

BACKGROUND: Dornase alfa (DNase) is one of the commonest cystic fibrosis (CF) treatments and is often used for many years. However, studies have not evaluated the effectiveness of its long-term use. We aimed to use UK CF Registry data to investigate the effects of one-, two-, three-, four- and five-years of DNase use on lung function to see if the benefits of short-term treatment use are sustained long term. METHODS: We analysed data from 4,198 people in the UK CF Registry from 2007 to 2015 using g-estimation. By controlling for time-dependent confounding we estimated the effects of long-term DNase use on percent predicted FEV1 (ppFEV1) and investigated whether the effect differed by ppFEV1 at treatment initiation or by age. RESULTS: Considering the population as a whole, there was no significant effect of one-year's use of DNase; change in ppFEV1 over one year was -0.1% in the treated compared to the untreated (p = 0.51) and this did not change with long-term use. However, treatment was estimated to be more beneficial in people with lower lung function (p  70%

The formal approach to quantitative causal inference in epidemiology: misguided or misrepresented?

Two recent articles, one by Vandenbroucke, Broadbent and Pearce (henceforth VBP) and the other by Krieger and Davey Smith (henceforth KDS), criticize what these two sets of authors characterize as the mainstream of the modern ‘causal inference’ school in epidemiology. The criticisms made by these authors are severe; VBP label the field both ‘wrong in theory’ and ‘wrong in practice’, and KDS—at least in some settings—feel that the field not only ‘bark[s] up the wrong tree’ but ‘miss[es] the forest entirely’. More specifically, the school of thought, and the concepts and methods within it, are painted as being applicable only to a very narrow range of investigations, to the exclusion of most of the important questions and study designs in modern epidemiology, such as the effects of genetic variants, the study of ethnic and gender disparities and the use of study designs that do not closely mirror randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Furthermore, the concepts and methods are painted as being potentially highly misleading even within this narrow range in which they are deemed applicable. We believe that most of VBP’s and KDS’s criticisms stem from a series of misconceptions about the approach they criticize. In this response, therefore, we aim first to paint a more accurate picture of the formal causal inference approach, and then to outline the key misconceptions underlying VBP’s and KDS’s critiques. KDS in particular criticize directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), using three examples to do so. Their discussion highlights further misconceptions concerning the role of DAGs in causal inference, and so we devote the third section of the paper to addressing these. In our Discussion we present further objections we have to the arguments in the two papers, before concluding that the clarity gained from adopting a rigorous framework is an asset, not an obstacle, to answering more reliably a very wide range of causal questions using data from observational studies of many different designs

Polarized cortical tension drives zebrafish epiboly movements

The principles underlying the biomechanics of morphogenesis are largely unknown. Epiboly is an essential embryonic event in which three tissues coordinate to direct the expansion of the blastoderm. How and where forces are generated during epiboly, and how these are globally coupled remains elusive. Here we developed a method, hydrodynamic regression (HR), to infer 3D pressure fields, mechanical power, and cortical surface tension profiles. HR is based on velocity measurements retrieved from 2D+T microscopy and their hydrodynamic modeling. We applied HR to identify biomechanically active structures and changes in cortex local tension during epiboly in zebrafish. Based on our results, we propose a novel physical description for epiboly, where tissue movements are directed by a polarized gradient of cortical tension. We found that this gradient relies on local contractile forces at the cortex, differences in elastic properties between cortex components and the passive transmission of forces within the yolk cell. All in all, our work identifies a novel way to physically regulate concerted cellular movements that might be instrumental for the mechanical control of many morphogenetic processes.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models.

: Many methods have been proposed to solve the age-period-cohort (APC) linear identification problem, but most are not theoretically informed and may lead to biased estimators of APC effects. One exception is the mechanism-based approach recently proposed and based on Pearl's front-door criterion; this approach ensures consistent APC effect estimators in the presence of a complete set of intermediate variables between one of age, period, cohort, and the outcome of interest, as long as the assumed parametric models for all the relevant causal pathways are correct. Through a simulation study mimicking APC data on cardiovascular mortality, we demonstrate possible pitfalls that users of the mechanism-based approach may encounter under realistic conditions: namely, when (1) the set of available intermediate variables is incomplete, (2) intermediate variables are affected by two or more of the APC variables (while this feature is not acknowledged in the analysis), and (3) unaccounted confounding is present between intermediate variables and the outcome. Furthermore, we show how the mechanism-based approach can be extended beyond the originally proposed linear and probit regression models to incorporate all generalized linear models, as well as nonlinearities in the predictors, using Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the observed biases resulting from departures from underlying assumptions, we formulate guidelines for the application of the mechanism-based approach (extended or not).<br/

Signatures of granular microstructure in dense shear flows

Granular materials react to shear stresses differently than do ordinary fluids. Rather than deforming uniformly, materials such as dry sand or cohesionless powders develop shear bands: narrow zones containing large relative particle motion leaving adjacent regions essentially rigid[1,2,3,4,5]. Since shear bands mark areas of flow, material failure and energy dissipation, they play a crucial role for many industrial, civil engineering and geophysical processes[6]. They also appear in related contexts, such as in lubricating fluids confined to ultra-thin molecular layers[7]. Detailed information on motion within a shear band in a three-dimensional geometry, including the degree of particle rotation and inter-particle slip, is lacking. Similarly, only little is known about how properties of the individual grains - their microstructure - affect movement in densely packed material[5]. Combining magnetic resonance imaging, x-ray tomography, and high-speed video particle tracking, we obtain the local steady-state particle velocity, rotation and packing density for shear flow in a three-dimensional Couette geometry. We find that key characteristics of the granular microstructure determine the shape of the velocity profile.Comment: 5 pages, incl. 4 figure

Integrated multiple mediation analysis: A robustness–specificity trade-off in causal structure

Recent methodological developments in causal mediation analysis have addressed several issues regarding multiple mediators. However, these developed methods differ in their definitions of causal parameters, assumptions for identification, and interpretations of causal effects, making it unclear which method ought to be selected when investigating a given causal effect. Thus, in this study, we construct an integrated framework, which unifies all existing methodologies, as a standard for mediation analysis with multiple mediators. To clarify the relationship between existing methods, we propose four strategies for effect decomposition: two-way, partially forward, partially backward, and complete decompositions. This study reveals how the direct and indirect effects of each strategy are explicitly and correctly interpreted as path-specific effects under different causal mediation structures. In the integrated framework, we further verify the utility of the interventional analogues of direct and indirect effects, especially when natural direct and indirect effects cannot be identified or when cross-world exchangeability is invalid. Consequently, this study yields a robustness–specificity trade-off in the choice of strategies. Inverse probability weighting is considered for estimation. The four strategies are further applied to a simulation study for performance evaluation and for analyzing the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer data set from Taiwan to investigate the causal effect of hepatitis C virus infection on mortality

Subbarrel patterns in somatosensory cortical barrels can emerge from local dynamic instabilities

Complex spatial patterning, common in the brain as well as in other biological systems, can emerge as a result of dynamic interactions that occur locally within developing structures. In the rodent somatosensory cortex, groups of neurons called "barrels" correspond to individual whiskers on the contralateral face. Barrels themselves often contain subbarrels organized into one of a few characteristic patterns. Here we demonstrate that similar patterns can be simulated by means of local growth-promoting and growth-retarding interactions within the circular domains of single barrels. The model correctly predicts that larger barrels contain more spatially complex subbarrel patterns, suggesting that the development of barrels and of the patterns within them may be understood in terms of some relatively simple dynamic processes. We also simulate the full nonlinear equations to demonstrate the predictive value of our linear analysis. Finally, we show that the pattern formation is robust with respect to the geometry of the barrel by simulating patterns on a realistically shaped barrel domain. This work shows how simple pattern forming mechanisms can explain neural wiring both qualitatively and quantitatively even in complex and irregular domains. © 2009 Ermentrout et al

Multimorbidity in bipolar disorder and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease: a cross sectional study

Background: Individuals with serious mental disorders experience poor physical health, especially increased rates of cardiometabolic morbidity and premature morbidity. Recent evidence suggests that individuals with schizophrenia have numerous comorbid physical conditions which may be under-recorded and under-treated but to date very few studies have explored this issue for bipolar disorder. Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 1,751,841 registered patients within 314 primary-care practices in Scotland, U.K. Bipolar disorder was identified using Read Codes recorded within electronic medical records. Data on 32 common chronic physical conditions were also assessed. Potential prescribing inequalities were evaluated by analyzing prescribing data for coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension. Results: Compared to controls, individuals with bipolar disorder were significantly less likely to have no recorded physical conditions (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.54-0.63) and significantly more likely to have one physical condition (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16-1.39), two physical conditions (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) and three or more physical conditions (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30-1.64). People with bipolar disorder also had higher rates of thyroid disorders, chronic kidney disease, chronic pain, chronic obstructive airways disease and diabetes but, surprisingly, lower recorded rates of hypertension and atrial fibrillation. People with bipolar disorder and comorbid CHD or hypertension were significantly more likely to be prescribed no antihypertensive or cholesterol-lowering medications compared to controls, and bipolar individuals with CHD or hypertension were significantly less likely to be on 2 or more antihypertensive agents. Conclusions: Individuals with bipolar disorder are similar to individuals with schizophrenia in having a wide range of comorbid and multiple physical health conditions. They are also less likely than controls to have a primary-care record of cardiovascular conditions such as hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Those with a recorded diagnosis of CHD or hypertension were less likely to be treated with cardiovascular medications and were treated less intensively. This study highlights the high physical healthcare needs of people with bipolar disorder, and provides evidence for a systematic under-recognition and under-treatment of cardiovascular disease in this group

Accelerated in vivo proliferation of memory phenotype CD4+ T-cells in human HIV-1 infection irrespective of viral chemokine co-receptor tropism.

CD4(+) T-cell loss is the hallmark of HIV-1 infection. CD4 counts fall more rapidly in advanced disease when CCR5-tropic viral strains tend to be replaced by X4-tropic viruses. We hypothesized: (i) that the early dominance of CCR5-tropic viruses results from faster turnover rates of CCR5(+) cells, and (ii) that X4-tropic strains exert greater pathogenicity by preferentially increasing turnover rates within the CXCR4(+) compartment. To test these hypotheses we measured in vivo turnover rates of CD4(+) T-cell subpopulations sorted by chemokine receptor expression, using in vivo deuterium-glucose labeling. Deuterium enrichment was modeled to derive in vivo proliferation (p) and disappearance (d*) rates which were related to viral tropism data. 13 healthy controls and 13 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected subjects (CD4 143-569 cells/ul) participated. CCR5-expression defined a CD4(+) subpopulation of predominantly CD45R0(+) memory cells with accelerated in vivo proliferation (p = 2.50 vs 1.60%/d, CCR5(+) vs CCR5(-); healthy controls; P<0.01). Conversely, CXCR4 expression defined CD4(+) T-cells (predominantly CD45RA(+) naive cells) with low turnover rates. The dominant effect of HIV infection was accelerated turnover of CCR5(+)CD45R0(+)CD4(+) memory T-cells (p = 5.16 vs 2.50%/d, HIV vs controls; P<0.05), naïve cells being relatively unaffected. Similar patterns were observed whether the dominant circulating HIV-1 strain was R5-tropic (n = 9) or X4-tropic (n = 4). Although numbers were small, X4-tropic viruses did not appear to specifically drive turnover of CXCR4-expressing cells (p = 0.54 vs 0.72 vs 0.44%/d in control, R5-tropic, and X4-tropic groups respectively). Our data are most consistent with models in which CD4(+) T-cell loss is primarily driven by non-specific immune activation